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AUD/USD – Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area

  • AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 after falling from 0.7174 highs on Wednesday.
  • An unexpected rise in Australian unemployment adds to the case for an RBA rate pause.
  • The pair is trading in a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as soft Australian employment data cemented hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take a pause in the coming months after three consecutive rate hikes. The pair trades at 0.7126 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100, but remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 0.7174..

Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reaching its highest level since 2021, against expectations of a steady 4.3% rate. The jump in the jobless rate was due to an unexpected decline in net employment, which fell by 18.6K against the 17.5K increase expected.

Aussie’s weakness, however, is being tamed by a mild improvement in market sentiment as US President Donald Trump affirmed that Washington and Tehran would be in the final stages of a peace deal.

Technical Analysis: The pair is forming a small triangle pattern

AUD/USD Chart Analysis


AUD/USD trades at the lower band of the monthly trading range, with price action forming ang a small triangle pattern. Triangles are considered continuation patterns, and, in this case, would anticipate a bearish outcome.

Momentum indicators, in the 4-hour chart, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 line, highlighting a mild bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that bullish momentum is attempting to rebuild above recent lows.

Initial support is seen at the uptrend line around 0.7108, with additional protection emerging at the 0.7080 area (April 14, May 10 lows). A break below this band would expose an intraday support area at 0.7030.

Rallies, on the contrary, are likely to be tested in the area between the triangle top, near 0.7160, and Wednesday’s high, at the mentioned 0.7174 level. Further up, Monday’s high, at 0.7185, will also challenge bulls ahead of a previous support area, near 0.7215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.00%0.06%0.11%0.38%0.19%-0.02%
EUR0.00%-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.38%0.15%-0.02%
GBP0.00%0.00%0.09%0.11%0.40%0.17%-0.02%
JPY-0.06%-0.09%-0.09%0.02%0.33%0.04%-0.09%
CAD-0.11%-0.10%-0.11%-0.02%0.31%0.07%-0.14%
AUD-0.38%-0.38%-0.40%-0.33%-0.31%-0.23%-0.44%
NZD-0.19%-0.15%-0.17%-0.04%-0.07%0.23%-0.20%
CHF0.02%0.02%0.02%0.09%0.14%0.44%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Australian Dollar: Labor data threatens RBA-driven gains – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the Australian Dollar has retreated from a four-year high versus the US Dollar as weak Chinese data and soft domestic labor figures weigh. He highlights rising unemployment and fading support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s earlier rate hikes, with policymakers now leaning toward a pause. Baur warns AUD support could taper if the hiking cycle is already over.

Weak jobs and RBA pause pressure AUD

“The Australian dollar has been on the defensive this week after climbing to a four-year high against the US dollar at 0.726 last Wednesday. But weak data on the Chinese economy at the start of the week dealt the first blow, and now labor market data released early this morning show that things aren’t going so well at home either.”

“In recent months, the AUD has benefited significantly from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy shift. While other G-10 central banks are still adopting a wait-and-see approach to the Iran conflict and rising inflation, the RBA has already raised interest rates three times in its last three meetings. However, the supportive effect these rate hikes have had on the AUD is likely to gradually fade.”

“In a speech this week, RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter sounded less hawkish than she had in recent months, and – based in part on the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting released on Tuesday – it appears that the Australian central bankers are currently leaning toward a pause. They now want to wait and see and let the rate hikes take effect first.”

“Now, as mentioned, labor market data is quite volatile, and one shouldn’t overinterpret a single month’s figures. But signs are slowly mounting that the RBA may not just be taking a pause, but that this rate-hiking cycle has already come to an end. In that case, support for the AUD would taper off, and the AUD could come under pressure going forward.”

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Euro: Downside focus against US Dollar tempered by rebound – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a cautious stance on EUR/USD after a dip to 1.1582 was followed by a strong rebound to 1.1644. While they still highlight 1.1570 as the key downside focus, they stress that slowing bearish momentum and positive divergence mean losses could be limited, with consolidation expected between 1.1600 and 1.1650 near term.

Euro consolidates as bearish momentum fades

“24-HOUR VIEW: EUR fell to a low of 1.1591 on Tuesday. When EUR was at 1.1610 in the early Asian trade yesterday, we indicated that EUR “could dip below 1.1590 and potentially test 1.1570 before the risk of a rebound increases.” We indicated that “resistance is at 1.1630, followed by 1.1645.” EUR subsequently dipped to a low of 1.1582 and then staged a surprisingly strong rebound during the NY session (high was 1.1644). Upward momentum is building, albeit not significantly. Today, instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely to consolidate between 1.1600 and 1.1650”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR one week ago. After EUR dropped below 1.1600, we stated yesterday (20 May, spot at 1.1610) that “the focus is now at 1.1570.” We added, “while further declines below 1.1570 are not ruled out, the tentative slowing in short-term momentum, alongside early signs of positive divergence, suggests that the downside could be relatively limited.” We did not quite expect EUR to rebound strongly to 1.1644. Downward momentum has slowed further, and a breach of 1.1665 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that 1.1570 is out of reach.”

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Rupee Finds Relief as Oil Prices Ease

The Indian rupee hovered near 96.4 per dollar, pausing losses after briefly crossing the 97-per-dollar mark for the first time. Softer oil prices offered temporary relief as Brent crude fell more than 5% to near $105 per barrel, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.60%, improving market sentiment. The rupee had remained under pressure, falling nearly 2.5% over nine sessions amid strong dollar demand, rising US yields, and heavy foreign fund outflows. Meanwhile, the central bank has already announced a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction scheduled for May 26. The Reserve Bank of India is also reportedly considering measures to stabilize the rupee, including a possible rate hike, additional swap auctions, and schemes to attract foreign currency inflows from non-resident Indians, which officials estimate could bring in up to $50 billion. Markets are now focused on the RBI’s June 3–5 policy meeting for signals on further support measures.

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NZD weakens despite stronger Trade Balance data

  • NZD/USD falls despite a record-high NZD 1.92 billion April Trade Surplus that beat market expectations.
  • The RBNZ is expected to remain cautious on tightening to avoid choking off a fragile recovery following a recent recession.
  • FOMC April Meeting Minutes indicated that the Fed may raise interest rates if inflation stays stubbornly above their 2% target.

NZD/USD depreciates after registering 0.62% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may regain its ground against the US Dollar as Statistics New Zealand reported that the country’s Trade Surplus widened sharply to a record high of NZD 1.92 billion month-over-month (MoM) in April, up from NZD 0.43 billion in March. This stellar performance comfortably beat market expectations of a much smaller NZD 0.98 billion surplus.

The record-breaking surplus was driven by a powerful surge in outbound shipments, with exports rising to an all-time high of NZD 8.6 billion. In contrast, annual imports declined to NZD 6.7 billion. This trade imbalance underscores highly resilient external demand for New Zealand’s goods, offering a buffer against broader global geopolitical uncertainties.

Despite the strong export performance, the domestic economic picture remains mixed, which could limit the NZD’s upside. Recent indicators point to softening economic momentum at home, prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain a cautious stance regarding further policy tightening. Because the domestic economy has only recently emerged from a recession and continues to operate with significant spare capacity, policymakers are hesitant to choke off the fragile recovery.

The NZD/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to United States (US)-Iran uncertainty and hawkish monetary policy signals.

Traders adopt caution due to tense United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations against renewed threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. A Bloomberg report on Wednesday stated that US President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. This raised market expectations that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

However, President Trump also reiterated to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone on the social media platform X, stating that Tehran has no intention of capitulating and calling any attempt to force a surrender through coercion “nothing more than an illusion.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the April meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that a majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains persistently above their 2% target. The minutes underscored deepening concerns within the Fed regarding inflation risks driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

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EUR/JPY Flatlines with neutral technical outlook as traders eye intervention risks

  • EUR/JPY holds steady near 184.75 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a neutral outlook, while RSI momentum hovers around the midline. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 184.32. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 184.75 during the early European session on Thursday. Markets remain cautious over further currency intervention after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the official is prepared to take action at any time against excessive FX volatility. 

The stronger-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter (Q1) might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the cross. Japan’s Q1 GDP beat forecasts, growing at an annualized rate of 2.1% against the estimated 1.7%.

On the other hand, hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could lift the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. ECB policymaker Joachim ‌Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank may have to act at its June meeting as the Iran energy shock proves persistent and the probability of broader inflation spreading continues to rise.

The majority of economists from the Reuters poll, around 85%, indicated that the ECB would raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in June, up from just over half expecting that before the April meeting.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in a sideways tone, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading just under the 20-day Bollinger mid-line, which keeps the immediate bias broadly neutral after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 is hovering around the midline, hinting at a lack of directional conviction rather than strong selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger mid-band around 185.00, with a stronger cap emerging at the May 12 high of 185.46 if bulls regain traction. The next hurdle to watch is the upper Bollinger band near 187.15. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 184.32 offers first support, ahead of the May 7 low of 183.50. The critical support level is seen at the lower Bollinger band around 182.88, where a sustained break would likely expose a deeper correction.

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EUR/USD Consolidates above 1.1600 as Iran risks, hawkish Fed support USD

  • EUR/USD bulls seem hesitant as geopolitical uncertainties and Fed rate hike bets underpin the USD.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful downfall.
  • A sustained strength beyond the 50% Fibo. is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the 1.1585-1.1580 region, or its lowest level since April 7, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1600 mark as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Despite renewed hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict, investors remain skeptical about a US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, hawkish FOMC Minutes reaffirmed bets for an interest rate hike in 2026, which helps limit the US Dollar’s (USD) corrective pullback from a six-week low and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing. Adding to this, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, hinting at subdued upside momentum. However, the overnight resilience below the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution for the EUR/USD bears.

Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) stabilizes slightly above the zero line with modest positive readings. This suggests that recent downside pressure is easing but not yet reversing the broader capped tone. Hence, any subsequent slide might continue to find support at the 61.8% Fibo. around 1.1591; a break there would expose the 78.6% level at 1.1522 ahead of the structural floor near 1.1433.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.1640, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. near 1.1689, with the 200-period SMA at 1.1712 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1749 reinforcing a dense supply zone higher up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%-0.80%0.14%0.08%0.31%-0.31%0.03%
EUR0.01%-0.81%0.22%0.08%0.30%-0.24%0.01%
GBP0.80%0.81%0.98%0.89%1.12%0.57%0.81%
JPY-0.14%-0.22%-0.98%-0.12%0.09%-0.51%-0.16%
CAD-0.08%-0.08%-0.89%0.12%0.23%-0.39%-0.10%
AUD-0.31%-0.30%-1.12%-0.09%-0.23%-0.54%-0.20%
NZD0.31%0.24%-0.57%0.51%0.39%0.54%0.23%
CHF-0.03%-0.01%-0.81%0.16%0.10%0.20%-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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CHF declines as US Dollar advances on US-Iran uncertainty

  • USD/CHF rises as a hawkish Fed outlook and complex geopolitical developments supported the US Dollar.
  • Trump stated US-Iran talks are in final stages, but also warned of military action within days if Iran rejects terms.
  • Traders will likely observe the Q1 Swiss Industrial Production data later in the day.

USD/CHF edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its footing, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and hawkish monetary policy signals.

Traders are currently weighing the economic implications of tense United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations against renewed threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Optimism initially surfaced following a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, which quoted US President Donald Trump stating that negotiations with Iran were in their final stages. This raised market expectations that the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

Adding to the market’s caution, the geopolitical outlook turned volatile again as President Trump pledged to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone on the social media platform X, stating that Tehran has no intention of capitulating and calling any attempt to force a surrender through coercion “nothing more than an illusion.”

However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the April meeting were released on Wednesday, indicating a majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains persistently above their 2% target. The minutes underscored deepening concerns within the Fed regarding inflation risks driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

On the Swiss side, preliminary data released on Monday showed that the domestic economy expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, accelerating from the 0.2% growth recorded in the previous period. This marked Switzerland’s strongest quarterly performance in a year, signaling a steady economic recovery. Looking ahead, market participants are shifting their focus to the first-quarter 2026 Swiss Industrial Production data due later in the day.