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USD/CAD steadies as Middle East war support Dollar, Canada CPI data looms

  • USD/CAD hovers near 1.3700 after rebounding from the monthly low around 1.3650 reached on Friday.
  • Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
  • Investors await Canada’s March inflation data, which could influence monetary policy expectations.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3690 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, after rebounding from the monthly low near 1.3650 reached on Friday. The recovery remains limited as investors balance demand for the US Dollar (USD) with support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices.

The US Dollar is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran indicated that no new round of negotiations with the United States (US) is planned, accusing Washington of maintaining excessive pressure and violating the ceasefire through the continuation of its maritime blockade. These developments have revived risk aversion and supported the Greenback.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edges higher around 98.30. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have warned about the economic risks associated with a prolonged war in the Middle East, particularly through persistently higher energy prices that could fuel inflation.

However, gains in USD/CAD remain capped by rising Oil prices, a factor that typically supports the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is up 4.06% on Monday, trading around $87.30 at the time of press, supported by concerns over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian threats against commercial vessels.

Market attention now turns to the release of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which is due later in the day. Economists expect monthly inflation to accelerate to 1.1%, after 0.5% in February, while annual inflation could rise to 2.5%. Higher energy costs largely drive the expected increase.

These figures could complicate the outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC). If inflation accelerates sharply, markets could revive expectations of monetary tightening, even as Canada’s economic growth remains fragile.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.03%0.11%0.21%-0.01%0.23%0.10%-0.00%
EUR-0.03%0.09%0.13%-0.06%0.19%0.10%-0.05%
GBP-0.11%-0.09%0.04%-0.13%0.10%-0.01%-0.15%
JPY-0.21%-0.13%-0.04%-0.17%0.05%-0.10%-0.19%
CAD0.01%0.06%0.13%0.17%0.23%0.08%-0.02%
AUD-0.23%-0.19%-0.10%-0.05%-0.23%-0.13%-0.24%
NZD-0.10%-0.10%0.00%0.10%-0.08%0.13%-0.11%
CHF0.00%0.05%0.15%0.19%0.02%0.24%0.11%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 with UK’s PM Starmer in question

  • The Euro appreciates against a weaker Pound as pressure on UK Prime Minister Starmer grows.
  • Markets opened the week in a cautious tone with the US-Iran peace process on tenterhooks.
  • German PPI rose 2.5% in March, its strongest reading since August 2022.

The Euro (EUR) advances on Monday against a somewhat weaker British Pound (GBP), as the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, heads to the House of Commons to answer questions about former US ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process.

Lord Mandelson’s appointment caused a scandal last year, due to his ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Opposition parties are blaming Starmer for failing the security vetting for the position and calling on him to resign for misleading parliament on previous statements related to the appointment.

Cautious markets with the US-Iran peace process teetering

The market, meanwhile, remains cautious, with most currencies trading within previous ranges as the US and Iran exchange threats, with the second round of peace talks in question. The US has seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian authorities said that they might not attend the peace talks scheduled for next Tuesday due to US violations of the ceasefire.

In Europe, German Producer Prices Index (PPI) data revealed that inflation at factory gates jumped 2.5% in March, its highest monthly reading in nearly four years, confirming the inflationary impact of the war in the Middle East. Year-on-year, the PPI contracted 0.2% following a 3.3% drop in February.

In the UK, the economic calendar is thin on Monday, with the focus on February’s employment report due on Tuesday. Jobless claimants are expected to have eased to a 21.4K increase, from 24.7K in January, while the Unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.2%, and wage inflation is easing somewhat. This will provide the Bank of England with some margin to keep interest rates on hold for some time.

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EUR/USD: Limited upside as longer-term Dollar risks grow – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock. She notes the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) have held up better than in 2022 thanks to expectations of quicker tightening. Over the longer term, she highlights greater inflation and policy risks for the US Dollar (USD) versus the Euro.

Short-term cap, longer-term Dollar risk

“How will the fx markets develop in this environment? I think it makes sense to distinguish between the short and the longer term. In the short term – and we have already seen this to some extent – the focus is likely to be very much on the immediate reactions of the central banks.”

“This time things look a little different. The euro, and alongside it the British pound, are holding up fairly well against the US dollar. This is probably because markets trust both the ECB and the Bank of England to have learned from the mistakes of four years ago and to react early to inflation risks.”

“We have already expressed our doubts about market expectations for the ECB on several occasions, which is why we see the further upside potential in EUR/USD as limited. But that is only the short-term view. In the longer term, the pendulum could swing back again.”

“Therefore, in the longer term, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff, and only those currencies will prove robust where inflation falls back towards the 2% target more quickly. We see substantial risks in particular for the dollar. Apart from inflation, which has recently been firmer anyway due to the significant increases in import tariffs, further attacks by the US government are likely to make it difficult for the US central bank to respond adequately to an inflation shock.”

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Today Markets – Forecasting The Upcoming Week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.

Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.

However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.17%-0.59%-0.23%-0.31%-0.16%-0.49%
EUR0.09%-0.08%-0.52%-0.15%-0.22%-0.08%-0.42%
GBP0.17%0.08%-0.45%-0.07%-0.14%0.01%-0.32%
JPY0.59%0.52%0.45%0.37%0.28%0.42%0.09%
CAD0.23%0.15%0.07%-0.37%-0.08%0.05%-0.26%
AUD0.31%0.22%0.14%-0.28%0.08%0.15%-0.19%
NZD0.16%0.08%-0.01%-0.42%-0.05%-0.15%-0.34%
CHF0.49%0.42%0.32%-0.09%0.26%0.19%0.34%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.

GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.

USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.

AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.

Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Tuesday, April 21:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s De Guindos speech
  • Fed’s Waller speech

Wednesday, April 22:

  • ECB’s Elderson speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • BoE’s Breeden speech
  • ECB’s Lane speech
  • ECB’s Cipollone speech
  • ECB’s Sleijpen speech
  • ECB’s Nagel speech
  • ECB’s President Lagarde speech

Thursday, April 23:

  • ECB’s Nagel speech

Friday, April 24:

  • SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

Monday, April 20:

  • China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
  • Germany PPI March
  • Canada CPIs
  • Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
  • New Zealand CPI Q1

Tuesday, April 21:

  • United Kingdom Labor Market Data
  • Germany ZEW Survey April
  • Eurozone ZEW Survey April
  • United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
  • United States Retail Sales March
  • United States Pending Home Sales March
  • Japan Trade Balance March
  • Japan Exports March
  • Japan Imports March

Wednesday, April 22:

  • United Kingdom Inflation Data March
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
  • Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel

Thursday, April 23:

  • Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
  • France HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
  • United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States Initial Jobless Claims
  • United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
  • United States New Home Sales March
  • United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
  • Japan Inflation Data March

Friday, April 24:

  • United Kingdom Retail Sales March
  • Germany IFO Survey April
  • Canada Retail Sales February
  • United States Michigan Data April
  • United States Inflation Expectations April
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USD/JPY slides as Iran reopens Hormuz, WTI plunges and USD weakens

  • USD/JPY edges lower as softer USD and falling Oil prices support the Yen.
  • WTI plunges over 10% after Hormuz reopening, easing inflation concerns.
  • Technically, USD/JPY trades below the 20-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias bearish.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against a softer US Dollar (USD), with easing Oil prices providing additional support, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 158.18, down 0.61% on the day.

Despite the decline, the pair remains largely range-bound within a one-month range between 157.50 and 160.50 and is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, mirroring moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies. The index remains under pressure amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.

Crude prices plunged more than 10% after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement on X that, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait has been declared open for the remaining period of the truce, with transit taking place along coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

The sharp drop in Oil prices is easing immediate inflation risks, reviving expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual policy normalization path.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments around US–Iran talks over the weekend, with markets watching for signs of a lasting peace deal. However, unresolved differences, particularly over nuclear issues, could keep uncertainty elevated.

In the daily chart, USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as spot sits below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands at 159.20 while only marginally above the lower band support at 158.15. This configuration suggests the recent pullback is not yet resolved, with the pair trading in the lower half of its volatility envelope; a sub-50 Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around -0.20 both hint that downside momentum still outweighs buying interest.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger SMA midline near 159.20, with a stronger cap emerging at the upper band around 160.25, where renewed selling pressure could reappear if the pair attempts a rebound. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 158.15; a daily close below this level would expose deeper losses toward prior price floors, whereas holding above it would keep the pair confined to a corrective consolidation within the broader uptrend.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.12%-0.19%-0.62%-0.20%-0.28%-0.16%-0.51%
EUR0.12%-0.07%-0.52%-0.09%-0.17%-0.05%-0.41%
GBP0.19%0.07%-0.45%-0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.33%
JPY0.62%0.52%0.45%0.44%0.35%0.46%0.12%
CAD0.20%0.09%0.02%-0.44%-0.08%0.02%-0.31%
AUD0.28%0.17%0.10%-0.35%0.08%0.12%-0.23%
NZD0.16%0.05%-0.02%-0.46%-0.02%-0.12%-0.35%
CHF0.51%0.41%0.33%-0.12%0.31%0.23%0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Breaks below key SMAs, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
  • RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.

For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.

On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.78%-0.92%-0.59%-1.23%-2.48%-1.43%-1.14%
EUR0.78%-0.15%0.17%-0.43%-1.65%-0.66%-0.34%
GBP0.92%0.15%0.26%-0.30%-1.50%-0.51%-0.18%
JPY0.59%-0.17%-0.26%-0.66%-1.84%-0.74%-0.57%
CAD1.23%0.43%0.30%0.66%-1.10%-0.09%0.11%
AUD2.48%1.65%1.50%1.84%1.10%1.06%1.27%
NZD1.43%0.66%0.51%0.74%0.09%-1.06%0.31%
CHF1.14%0.34%0.18%0.57%-0.11%-1.27%-0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF – Bearish Flag formation warrants more downside below 0.7790

  • USD/CHF rises to near 0.7825 as Iran truce optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
  • US President Trump has stated multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran.
  • The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.15% lower at around 0.7825 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.08. The DXY is close to its over six-week low of 97.83 posted on Thursday.

The hopes of an Iran truce remain firm as US President Donald Trump has stated multiple times that Tehran is eager to reach a deal soon. On Thursday, Trump said in a press briefing, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump added that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its plans to pursue nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, traders have completely pared hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) for the year, as capped oil prices due to Iran truce optimism have again anchored inflation expectations globally.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF trades lower at around 0.7825 as of writing, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7883. On the daily chart, the pair exhibits a Bearish Flag formation, which warrants the continuation of the downside trend after a period of consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 42 leans to the weak side and hints that rebounds may continue to struggle beneath overhead supply.

On the downside, the channel bottom around 0.7798 is the first line of support, and a clear move below that floor would expose a deeper retracement within the broader bearish structure defined by the longer-term downward trend line towards the March 10 low of 0.7748, followed by the February 23 low of 0.7710.

Looking up, initial resistance emerges at the channel top near 0.7850, followed by the 20-period EMA at 0.7883; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and extend the recovery towards the April 13 high of 0.7934.

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Australian Dollar outperforms on broader risk rally, hawkish RBA bets

  • AUD/USD rises to near 0.7175 as the Australian Dollar outperforms amid the risk-on mood.
  • Market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets on Iran truce hopes.
  • Traders expected the RBA to hike interest rates further by 55 bps this year.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.16% higher to near 0.7175 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair trades firmly as Iran optimism-based broader risk rally has strengthened the antipodean.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.15%-0.02%0.00%-0.18%-0.14%0.09%-0.18%
EUR0.15%0.12%0.11%-0.05%0.00%0.22%-0.03%
GBP0.02%-0.12%-0.02%-0.18%-0.13%0.10%-0.15%
JPY0.00%-0.11%0.02%-0.15%-0.12%0.10%-0.14%
CAD0.18%0.05%0.18%0.15%0.04%0.25%0.03%
AUD0.14%-0.00%0.13%0.12%-0.04%0.22%-0.02%
NZD-0.09%-0.22%-0.10%-0.10%-0.25%-0.22%-0.24%
CHF0.18%0.03%0.15%0.14%-0.03%0.02%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

During the press time, S&P 500 futures trades 0.2% higher to near 7,060, reflecting a strong demand for riskier assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 98.10. The DXY is all set to close negatively for the second straight week.

A broader risk rally suggests that market participants are confident of the announcement of a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, as President Donald Trump has expressed multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Tehran.

US President Trump said in a press briefing on Thursday, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump also said that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, market participants expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver more interest rate hikes this year. In the March policy meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1%, and warned that inflation was already high in Australia before the war in the Middle East started.

According to a Reuters report, the RBA is expected to raise its OCR further by 55 bps in the remaining year to 4.65%.