Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP gains against its peers as UK GDP data beats estimates

  • The Pound Sterling gains buyers’ interest after the release of the stronger-than-expected UK monthly GDP data for February.
  • UK monthly GDP grew at a robust pace of 0.5% vs. 0.1% estimates.
  • US-Iran truce hopes have battered the US Dollar badly.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major currency peers, trading 0.14% higher to near 1.3580 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday after the release of the stronger-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that economy grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM), while it was expected to grow steadily by 0.1%. January’s figure revised higher from 0% to 0.1%.

UK’s Industrial Production data for February has also come in better-than-expected. The data arrives higher at 0.5% against estimates of 0.2%. In January, Industrial Production declined by 0.1%. However, MoM Manufacturing Production has surprisingly contracted by 0.1%, while it was expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.3% after rising 0.1% in January.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been battered badly by optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could announce a permanent ceasefire soon. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 98.00. In the Asian trade, the USD Index posted a fresh six-week low at 97.83.

US-Iran truce hopes are boosted by comments from Washington that both nations are close to end the war soon. On early Wednesday, US President Donald Trump told in an interview with Fox Business, “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” when asked about how long the war with Iran will remain.

Currency Hedger No Comments

UK GDP climbs by 0.5% MoM in February vs. 0.1% expected

The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.5% MoM in February, following a 0% reported in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.

The market forecast was for a 0.1% rise in the same period.

Meanwhile, the Index of services (February) rose 0.5% 3M/3M versus January’s 0.2%.

Other data from the UK showed that monthly Industrial Production climbed by 0.5% MoM in February, while Manufacturing Production declined by 0.1% during the same period.

Market reaction to the UK data

The Pound Sterling attracts some buyers following the UK data. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.3578.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.04%-0.12%-0.11%-0.11%-0.22%0.03%-0.08%
EUR0.04%-0.09%-0.06%-0.08%-0.18%0.03%-0.04%
GBP0.12%0.09%0.04%-0.00%-0.10%0.12%0.04%
JPY0.11%0.06%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%0.07%0.02%
CAD0.11%0.08%0.00%0.03%-0.10%0.12%0.04%
AUD0.22%0.18%0.10%0.11%0.10%0.21%0.16%
NZD-0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.07%-0.12%-0.21%-0.08%
CHF0.08%0.04%-0.04%-0.02%-0.04%-0.16%0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published on Thursday at 04:31 GMT as a preview of UK GDP data.

The UK Economic Data Overview

Thursday’s UK economic docket features the release of the monthly GDP print, alongside the Trade Balance and Industrial Production, all of which will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) at 06:00 GMT.

The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in February, up from a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to show a 0.3% MoM rise, up from a modest of 0.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, the total Industrial Production seems to be coming in at 0.0% MoM in February as compared to the previous reading of -0.1%.

On an annualized basis, the Industrial Production is expected to have contracted by 0.9 versus 0.4% growth in the previous month, while the manufacturing output is also anticipated to have fallen by 0.3% in the reported month, versus 1.3% last month. Simultaneously, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported and is anticipated to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February vs a £14.449 billion deficit reported in the previous month.

How could the UK data affect GBP/USD?

A surprisingly stronger UK macro data could benefit the British Pound (GBP). In contrast, any disappointment is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflation and force the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.

GBP/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis:

The recent breakout through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance– comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the subsequent strength beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark, which coincided with the 50% retracement level, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators also back the positive bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above zero with an expanding positive histogram. This hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the resistance breakpoints, though bulls might still await a move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY – Weakens to near 187.50, while staying bullish above 100-day EMA

  • EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY – Bounces off one-week low, defends trading range support near 158.25

  • USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session as renewed intervention fears boost the JPY.
  • Iran diplomacy hopes and fading hawkish Fed bets undermine the USD, further weighing on the pair.
  • Bears await a sustained break below the trading range support before positioning for further losses.

The USD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s modest rise and drops to over a one-week low, around the 158.25 region during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 158.70 area, down over 0.15% for the day.

Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, saying that she discussed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange, revived intervention fears, and boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since late February. These turned out to be key factors exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on any further JPY appreciation and assist the currency pair to bounce off the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. The said area also represents the lower end of a short-term trading range, and a break below will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears, which should pave the way for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped into negative territory and continues to edge lower. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-bearish ground, hinting that the momentum is softening and buyers are losing some control. This further makes it prudent to wait for a decisive breakdown of structure before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair.

A clear break and acceptance below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, where buyers have room to defend the recent consolidation floor, would expose bigger corrective risk. However, as long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the underlying bias stays modestly bullish, and any recovery attempts from current levels would likely be viewed as a continuation of the prevailing uptrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.11%-0.17%-0.16%-0.26%-0.01%-0.14%
EUR0.09%-0.03%-0.07%-0.07%-0.17%0.05%-0.05%
GBP0.11%0.03%-0.04%-0.06%-0.15%0.08%-0.03%
JPY0.17%0.07%0.04%-0.00%-0.09%0.10%0.03%
CAD0.16%0.07%0.06%0.00%-0.09%0.13%-0.00%
AUD0.26%0.17%0.15%0.09%0.09%0.22%0.14%
NZD0.00%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.13%-0.22%-0.10%
CHF0.14%0.05%0.03%-0.03%0.00%-0.14%0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/CAD holds losses near 1.6200 as Canadian Dollar gains on risk-on mood

  • EUR/CAD weakens as the Canadian Dollar gains support despite softer oil prices.
  • Washington and Tehran are weighing an extension of their two-week ceasefire to gain more time for peace negotiations.
  • Middle East de-escalation boosts risk appetite, while falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.

EUR/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from easing Middle East conflict. However, the commodity-linked CAD may come under pressure from softer oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States.

Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.”

However, the Euro (EUR) also holds ground against its major peers amid improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

“Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have boosted risk appetite, with declining oil prices helping to ease inflationary pressures in Eurozone. Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this week that the central bank must remain “completely agile” on rates, while emphasizing that it does not hold a bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, traders continue to view rate hikes as unavoidable, pricing in two quarter-point increases this year.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Offshore Yuan Hits Over 3-Year High

The offshore yuan edged higher to above 6.81 per USD, hitting its highest in more than three years as stronger-than-expected growth in China’s economy boosted sentiment. The world’s second-largest economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter from a year ago, accelerating from the 4.5% gain in the prior quarter and beating forecasts. However, signs of weakness started to emerge as the war in Iran disrupted global supply chains. March activity data showed a mixed backdrop, with industrial output rising 5.7% but slowing from earlier in the year, while retail sales increased 1.7%, missing expectations and easing from the previous period. This followed recent trade data, which highlighted a severe cooling in China’s export growth, indicating that the ongoing Middle East war may be dragging down global demand. Meantime, the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for talks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade.

Currency Hedger No Comments

CAD strengthens as risk-on mood weighs on US Dollar

  • USD/CAD falls as the US Dollar weakens on improved sentiment amid Middle East de-escalation hopes.
  • Trump said the war is “close to over,” with reports suggesting a possible two-week ceasefire extension.
  • Easing energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further tightening.

USD/CAD loses ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3730 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” A Bloomberg report indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

The Greenback faced additional pressure from easing energy prices, which helped ease inflation concerns and tempered expectations of further central bank tightening. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady this month and possibly for the rest of the year.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face challenges with easing oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

Reports suggested that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may permit vessels to transit freely via the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD holds gains after mixed Australian, Chinese data

  • AUD/USD holds gains near 0.7180 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • Australia’s Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in March, in line with the consensus. 
  • Traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. 

The AUD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.7180 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Greenback amid mixed economic data from Australian and Chinese dockets. 

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed that Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3% in March. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 17.9K in March. This reading followed 49.7K in February (revised from 48.9K), missing the forecast of 20K.

On the Chinese front, the annual March Retail Sales increased by 1.7% versus 2.3% expected and 2.8% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.7% versus 5.5% estimate and February’s reading of 6.3%. Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to a 1.2% growth in Q4 of 2025. The Aussie attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the mixed readings. 

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations about a longer-term peace deal. However, tensions remain particularly high over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago.