4 - 2026 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF – US Dollar bulls remain capped below 0.7845

USD/CHF bounces up from 0.7775 but remains capped below 0.7845.
Markets have turned cautious as the US-Iran peace talks wobble.
The pair maintains its bearish trend from late-March highs intact.

The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.

Market sentiment has turned cautious on Monday, as hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war wane, which is providing marginal support to the US Dollar. Iranian authorities are threatening to skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday

Investors, nevertheless, remain faithful that these moves are part of a complex process, and that Washington and Tehran will redress the situation and return to the negotiating table this week. This is keeping most US Dollar pairs at levels relatively close to last week’s peaks.

Technical Analysis: Treading water around $0.7800

The USD/CHF reversal from the 0.8050 area in late March has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the January 27 low to the March 31 high, near 0.7775, but the near-term bias remains negative, as upside attempts remain capped below the 0.7845 area.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced out of oversold territory toward the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers marginally above zero with a shallow positive profile, which only hints at fading downside pressure rather than a decisive turn higher.

The pair should breach the mentioned 0.7845 level (April 16 high), to set its focus on the April 8 and 10 highs, at the 0.7930 area, and the descending trendline, now around 0.7950. On the downside, below the mentioned 0.7775, the next target is the area between 78.2% retracement, at 0.7700, and the February 27 low, at 0.7670.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	0.02%	0.22%	0.00%	0.23%	0.11%	-0.03%
EUR	0.02%		0.03%	0.21%	0.00%	0.24%	0.12%	-0.03%
GBP	-0.02%	-0.03%		0.19%	-0.01%	0.20%	0.09%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.22%	-0.21%	-0.19%		-0.18%	0.03%	-0.13%	-0.24%
CAD	-0.01%	-0.00%	0.00%	0.18%		0.21%	0.07%	-0.05%
AUD	-0.23%	-0.24%	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.21%		-0.11%	-0.27%
NZD	-0.11%	-0.12%	-0.09%	0.13%	-0.07%	0.11%		-0.15%
CHF	0.03%	0.03%	0.07%	0.24%	0.05%	0.27%	0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

Pound Sterling – GBP trades mixed at the start of UK data-packed week

The Pound Sterling trades mixed against its peers while investors await a string of UK data.
The UK’s headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% in March.
Iran refuses to return to the table for another round of talks with the US.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain volatile as a slew of United Kingdom (UK) economic data is scheduled to be published this week.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.05%	-0.00%	0.19%	-0.01%	0.22%	0.09%	-0.04%
EUR	0.05%		0.05%	0.22%	0.01%	0.26%	0.14%	-0.02%
GBP	0.00%	-0.05%		0.17%	-0.02%	0.20%	0.10%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.22%	-0.17%		-0.18%	0.03%	-0.13%	-0.25%
CAD	0.01%	-0.01%	0.02%	0.18%		0.22%	0.07%	-0.06%
AUD	-0.22%	-0.26%	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.22%		-0.13%	-0.28%
NZD	-0.09%	-0.14%	-0.10%	0.13%	-0.07%	0.13%		-0.14%
CHF	0.04%	0.02%	0.07%	0.25%	0.06%	0.28%	0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Investors will pay close attention to the UK employment data for THE three months ending February, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for March to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.

The UK employment data on Tuesday is expected to show that the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8%. The ILO Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 5.2%.

The inflation report on Wednesday will likely demonstrate a strong growth in the headline CPI by 3% YoY, against 3% in February, in the wake of higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East. On Friday, the UK Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen 0.2% on a monthly basis after declining 0.4% in February.

Meanwhile, the recent commentary from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, suggests that the central bank will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting on April 30. Bailey said that there is “no rush” for monetary policy adjustments despite a negative energy shock.

This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be released on Thursday.

Against the US Dollar (USD), the Pound Sterling recovers a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near 1.3515. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains uncertain amid uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the day that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

(This story was corrected at 11:30 GMT to say in the third paragraph that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8% and not the previous reading of 3.5%)

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD/INR jumps higher as Oil price recovery batters Indian Rupee

The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar amid renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).

Hormuz closure boosts oil prices

WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.

On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.

US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions

Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.20%	0.24%	0.04%	0.35%	0.29%	0.16%
EUR	-0.11%		0.09%	0.09%	-0.08%	0.23%	0.19%	0.04%
GBP	-0.20%	-0.09%		0.00%	-0.16%	0.14%	0.10%	-0.06%
JPY	-0.24%	-0.09%	0.00%		-0.15%	0.14%	0.05%	-0.06%
CAD	-0.04%	0.08%	0.16%	0.15%		0.29%	0.22%	0.10%
AUD	-0.35%	-0.23%	-0.14%	-0.14%	-0.29%		-0.05%	-0.17%
NZD	-0.29%	-0.19%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.22%	0.05%		-0.14%
CHF	-0.16%	-0.04%	0.06%	0.06%	-0.10%	0.17%	0.14%

Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.

Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.

On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers above 20-day EMA

USD/INR recovers its Friday’s losses and rises further to near 93.25 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD: Political noise and softer BoE pricing – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling has held up even as markets scale back Bank of England tightening expectations to just one 25bp hike this year, while ING expects no change in rates. Political scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on sentiment. ING warns GBP/USD may surrender recent gains, eyeing 1.3380/1.3400 as an initial downside target.

Sterling resilience faces policy and politics

“Sterling has been performing reasonably well despite the market removing a lot of the expected Bank of England tightening this year. The market still prices one 25bp hike this year, while our team sees unchanged rates. That hike may not be priced out until oil prices drop, however.”

“There is also the small matter of politics in the UK. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today make a statement in parliament to potentially correct the record on the approval process for the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.”

“This will be a tough session for PM Starmer and one which will extend into tomorrow, when the top civil servant involved in the approval process also appears at a parliamentary hearing.”

“GBP/USD could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the 1.3380/3400 area.”

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD: Volatility shifts support weaker trend – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a sharp fall in the US Dollar, leaving year-to-date performance broadly flat and in line with the longer-term dollar-down trend. The bank argues that recent volatility episodes suggest only muted Dollar upside, consistent with a regime shift linked to de-dollarisation and concerns over US fiscal and institutional dynamics.

Dollar-down regime and volatility dynamics

“April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a big drop in the US dollar. This leaves year-to-date performance essentially flat, maintaining the longer-term “dollar-down” trend.”

“Given ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty, there is a strong chance that market volatility will pick up again. However, March’s market action suggests that any resulting boost to the dollar could be fairly subdued.”

“Indeed, the trend over the past couple of years indicates that the dollar remains relatively static during episodes of volatility. This represents a major regime shift.”

“It may reflect gradual de-dollarisation, mounting concerns over US public finances and institutional integrity, and a growing belief that the Fed is hamstrung in responding to inflation shocks – a stark contrast to its more aggressive stance in 2022.”

“With the broadening out narrative somewhat dependent on sustained dollar weakness, recent market action proves that this scenario remains plausible in 2026.”

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD steadies as Middle East war support Dollar, Canada CPI data looms

USD/CAD hovers near 1.3700 after rebounding from the monthly low around 1.3650 reached on Friday.
Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Investors await Canada’s March inflation data, which could influence monetary policy expectations.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3690 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, after rebounding from the monthly low near 1.3650 reached on Friday. The recovery remains limited as investors balance demand for the US Dollar (USD) with support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices.

The US Dollar is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran indicated that no new round of negotiations with the United States (US) is planned, accusing Washington of maintaining excessive pressure and violating the ceasefire through the continuation of its maritime blockade. These developments have revived risk aversion and supported the Greenback.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edges higher around 98.30. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have warned about the economic risks associated with a prolonged war in the Middle East, particularly through persistently higher energy prices that could fuel inflation.

However, gains in USD/CAD remain capped by rising Oil prices, a factor that typically supports the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is up 4.06% on Monday, trading around $87.30 at the time of press, supported by concerns over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian threats against commercial vessels.

Market attention now turns to the release of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which is due later in the day. Economists expect monthly inflation to accelerate to 1.1%, after 0.5% in February, while annual inflation could rise to 2.5%. Higher energy costs largely drive the expected increase.

These figures could complicate the outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC). If inflation accelerates sharply, markets could revive expectations of monetary tightening, even as Canada’s economic growth remains fragile.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.11%	0.21%	-0.01%	0.23%	0.10%	-0.00%
EUR	-0.03%		0.09%	0.13%	-0.06%	0.19%	0.10%	-0.05%
GBP	-0.11%	-0.09%		0.04%	-0.13%	0.10%	-0.01%	-0.15%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.04%		-0.17%	0.05%	-0.10%	-0.19%
CAD	0.01%	0.06%	0.13%	0.17%		0.23%	0.08%	-0.02%
AUD	-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.23%		-0.13%	-0.24%
NZD	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.00%	0.10%	-0.08%	0.13%		-0.11%
CHF	0.00%	0.05%	0.15%	0.19%	0.02%	0.24%	0.11%

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 with UK’s PM Starmer in question

The Euro appreciates against a weaker Pound as pressure on UK Prime Minister Starmer grows.
Markets opened the week in a cautious tone with the US-Iran peace process on tenterhooks.
German PPI rose 2.5% in March, its strongest reading since August 2022.

The Euro (EUR) advances on Monday against a somewhat weaker British Pound (GBP), as the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, heads to the House of Commons to answer questions about former US ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process.

Lord Mandelson’s appointment caused a scandal last year, due to his ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Opposition parties are blaming Starmer for failing the security vetting for the position and calling on him to resign for misleading parliament on previous statements related to the appointment.

Cautious markets with the US-Iran peace process teetering

The market, meanwhile, remains cautious, with most currencies trading within previous ranges as the US and Iran exchange threats, with the second round of peace talks in question. The US has seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian authorities said that they might not attend the peace talks scheduled for next Tuesday due to US violations of the ceasefire.

In Europe, German Producer Prices Index (PPI) data revealed that inflation at factory gates jumped 2.5% in March, its highest monthly reading in nearly four years, confirming the inflationary impact of the war in the Middle East. Year-on-year, the PPI contracted 0.2% following a 3.3% drop in February.

In the UK, the economic calendar is thin on Monday, with the focus on February’s employment report due on Tuesday. Jobless claimants are expected to have eased to a 21.4K increase, from 24.7K in January, while the Unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.2%, and wage inflation is easing somewhat. This will provide the Bank of England with some margin to keep interest rates on hold for some time.

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD: Limited upside as longer-term Dollar risks grow – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock. She notes the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) have held up better than in 2022 thanks to expectations of quicker tightening. Over the longer term, she highlights greater inflation and policy risks for the US Dollar (USD) versus the Euro.

Short-term cap, longer-term Dollar risk

“How will the fx markets develop in this environment? I think it makes sense to distinguish between the short and the longer term. In the short term – and we have already seen this to some extent – the focus is likely to be very much on the immediate reactions of the central banks.”

“This time things look a little different. The euro, and alongside it the British pound, are holding up fairly well against the US dollar. This is probably because markets trust both the ECB and the Bank of England to have learned from the mistakes of four years ago and to react early to inflation risks.”

“We have already expressed our doubts about market expectations for the ECB on several occasions, which is why we see the further upside potential in EUR/USD as limited. But that is only the short-term view. In the longer term, the pendulum could swing back again.”

“Therefore, in the longer term, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff, and only those currencies will prove robust where inflation falls back towards the 2% target more quickly. We see substantial risks in particular for the dollar. Apart from inflation, which has recently been firmer anyway due to the significant increases in import tariffs, further attacks by the US government are likely to make it difficult for the US central bank to respond adequately to an inflation shock.”