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Chart of The Day – Intervention on the Yen? Tokyo Challenges Speculators

Key takeaways

  • Intervention at 160: Breaking the psychological USDJPY barrier forced Tokyo to act, pushing the rate down to 155 amid low liquidity during Golden Week.
  • Buying Time: Market interventions provide only temporary relief; a long-term trend reversal requires BoJ rate hikes and a shift in U.S. dollar strength.
  • Path to 1.0%: Despite the slow pace, high inflation and a weak yen are fueling a hawkish shift within the BoJ, with eyes on a 1.0% rate later in 2026.

Japan has once again found itself at the center of attention in global financial markets. Massive problems related to the energy crisis, high bond yields, prospects of resurgent inflation, and economic slowdown have led to another wave of yen sell-offs. Ultimately, when USDJPY once again broke through the 160 level, a currency intervention most likely took place. Although there has been no direct confirmation yet and we must wait for official, significantly delayed data from the Ministry of Finance, officials are confirming the situation between the lines and announcing a possible further fight against speculators.

A Repeat of the Past: What Happened on April 30th?

The final session of April brought dramatic scenarios. The USDJPY pair once again breached the psychological 160 barrier , triggering an avalanche of orders and forcing Tokyo to act. We quickly observed a strengthening of the yen, and the USDJPY pair dropped to the 155 level. Such a sharp move occurred during a period of low liquidity—the Golden Week in Japan. It is also worth noting that this move coincided with record highs on the June Brent crude oil contract, which also dropped significantly at the moment of the Japanese intervention.

Golden Week is a 7-day period at the turn of April and May, featuring four national holidays. Authorities in Tokyo, led by Atsushi Mimura, sent a clear signal: “Golden Week” will not be a safe haven for speculation. History of Interventions: Is This a Good Time for the Yen? (2022–2024) Japan has a rich, albeit bittersweet history of fighting market trends. Recent history shows that interventions are an effective “emergency brake,” but they rarely change the direction of travel in the long term. It is also worth remembering that there were years when the Ministry of Finance sold the yen due to excessive strength to boost export power.

History of recent interventions:

  • September/October 2022: The first large-scale market operations in decades conducted at a record-weak yen. The result was approximately a 15% strengthening of the yen against the dollar, a move that lasted about 3 months. USDJPY returned to the October 2022 peaks after about 10 months.
  • April/May 2024: Action aimed at defending the previous 2022 peaks and the approach to the psychological level of 160 USDJPY. It brought immediate success, and the situation on the currency pair only stabilized longer-term following dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • July 2024: Another strike against speculators, this time supported by hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan. The effect was much more lasting than in previous cases because the intervention was accompanied by an actual interest rate hike by the BoJ. On the other hand, the downward move lasted 2 months and amounted to approximately 13.5% on the USDJPY pair.

What is the conclusion? Intervention alone is only “buying time.” Real change depends on the divergence (or lack thereof) between the policies of the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

It is worth noting that the spread should have clearly favored the yen for nearly a year now , but the rise in yields in Japan is a result not only of higher interest rates but primarily concerns regarding the massive debt situation and further fiscal expansion plans. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

​​​​​​​Furthermore, after the previous intervention in 2024, speculators changed their stance and a sharp short-squeeze on the yen began, with the market shifting from a net negative to a positive positioning for the first time since 2016. Currently, however, we are seeing an increase in short positions to almost the extreme high levels of 2024 or 2007. Source: xStation5

Bank of Japan Strategy: An Extremely Slow March Toward Normalization

While the Ministry of Finance fights on the front line with billions of dollars from reserves, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is conducting an operation to normalize monetary policy after decades of maintaining extremely low interest rates. Nevertheless, due to the state of the Japanese economy, this process is very slow.

  • Where are we? After the December hike in 2025, the main interest rate in Japan stands at 0.75% —its highest level in three decades, yet still one of the lowest in the world. Japan is still being used for carry trade transactions.
  • Divisions in the board: Recent meetings have shown a growing hawkish camp. As many as three out of nine board members favor an immediate move to the 1.0% level. This means that the probability of a hike this year is high.
  • Inflationary pressure: The BoJ forecasts core inflation (core CPI) for 2026 at 2.8%, which, with current rates, means that real interest rates remain deeply negative.

What’s Next for Rates? The base scenario assumes that the BoJ will raise rates to 1.0% still in 2026. The weak yen is a key catalyst here: expensive energy and food imports are draining the wallets of the Japanese people, becoming a political issue that the central bank cannot ignore.

Does the Yen Have a Chance for a Permanent Recovery?

The intervention at the end of April is a clear sign that Tokyo’s threshold of patience lies around the 160 level. However, the fundamentals remain relentless. For the yen to gain value permanently, the market must believe in two factors: a change in BoJ communication to a more hawkish tone , which must be handled cautiously to avoid a crisis in yields; and a change in sentiment regarding the dollar. If the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz ends, the dollar will no longer be as necessary as a safe haven. On the other hand, if the Fed begins to communicate possible hikes, USDJPY could permanently find itself above 160.

​​​​​​​The pair is currently in an important area of potential extreme overbought conditions. Interventions would need to be carried out regularly, and additionally, we would need to see a fundamental shift on both the Japanese and global sides. Source: xStation5

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USD/JPY – Holds above 157.00; bulls seem hesitant amid intervention fears

  • USD/JPY moves away from a two-month low following the release of a softer Tokyo CPI print.
  • A modest USD uptick further supports spot prices, though intervention risks cap the upside.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The USD/JPY pair builds on the previous day’s late rebound from the vicinity of mid-155.00s, or over a two-month trough, and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices touched a daily high near the 157.55 region, though the lack of follow-through buying warrants some caution for bullish traders.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across as softer consumer inflation figures from Tokyo – Japan’s capital city – give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reasons to pause amid economic concerns due to Middle East tensions. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick turns out to be another factor offering support to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, Japan’s top foreign exchange diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that officials are in close contact with the US on currency. This keeps intervention risks in play and limits JPY losses, capping the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, Thursday’s steep intraday decline from the 160.75 area, or the highest level since July 2024, stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April upswing. Moreover, the USD/JPY pair, so far, has held above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which, in turn, keeps bearish traders on the back foot. However, a softening Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, alongside a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading below zero, suggests downside pressure persists.

Hence, recovery attempts are likely to face supply on further rise towards initial resistance at the 38.2% retracement near 157.48. That said, a sustained strength beyond would expose the 23.6% retracement at 158.73 and then the 160.75 cycle high.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50.0% retracement near 156.47, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 155.47 and the 200-day EMA at 155.21. A clear loss of this area would open the way toward deeper Fibonacci support at 154.03 and the 152.20 swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.03%0.05%0.39%0.03%0.13%0.24%0.07%
EUR-0.03%0.00%0.37%-0.02%0.11%0.20%0.04%
GBP-0.05%-0.01%0.34%0.00%0.08%0.18%0.05%
JPY-0.39%-0.37%-0.34%-0.36%-0.27%-0.18%-0.31%
CAD-0.03%0.02%0.00%0.36%0.09%0.21%0.05%
AUD-0.13%-0.11%-0.08%0.27%-0.09%0.11%-0.02%
NZD-0.24%-0.20%-0.18%0.18%-0.21%-0.11%-0.15%
CHF-0.07%-0.04%-0.05%0.31%-0.05%0.02%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8600 as ECB and BoE keep interest rates unchanged

  • EUR/GBP steadies near 0.8625 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at its April meeting. 
  • The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.  

The EUR/GBP cross holds steady around 0.8625 during the early European session on Friday. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) warned they may need to raise interest rates in the coming months, as central banks grapple with the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East.

The ECB governing council opted to hold its benchmark deposit facility rate at 2% on Thursday. According to the statement, the central bank said the inflation outlook was largely unchanged. “The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank’s governing council had discussed a rate rise this month “at length and in depth” before voting for a hold. However, policymakers would closely monitor the situation and take a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining their monetary policy stance.  

On the UK’s front, the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 3.75% as uncertainty over the Iran war continues. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said if price pressures triggered by the conflict proved to be severe, a “forceful tightening” would be required.

Bailey on Thursday played down fears of near-term rate hikes but added: “We’ll continue to monitor the situation and its impact on the UK economy very closely.”

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USD/CAD – Descending 20-day EMA supports more downside

  • USD/CAD trades cautiously around 1.3580 amid the US Dollar’s underperformance.
  • Investors await Fed speeches for fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.
  • The BoC opens the door for interest rate hikes amid upside inflation risks.

The USD/CAD pair trades with caution near Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair trades weakly as the US Dollar (USD) is broadly under pressure, following Japanese intervention in the forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher to near 98.20, but is close to its 10-day low of 98.00.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.25%-0.62%-1.43%-0.70%-0.82%-0.45%-0.59%
EUR0.25%-0.35%-1.25%-0.43%-0.55%-0.18%-0.32%
GBP0.62%0.35%-0.88%-0.07%-0.20%0.17%0.03%
JPY1.43%1.25%0.88%0.80%0.66%1.11%0.93%
CAD0.70%0.43%0.07%-0.80%-0.08%0.31%0.11%
AUD0.82%0.55%0.20%-0.66%0.08%0.38%0.24%
NZD0.45%0.18%-0.17%-1.11%-0.31%-0.38%-0.14%
CHF0.59%0.32%-0.03%-0.93%-0.11%-0.24%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The next major trigger for the US Dollar will be commentaries from a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as the blackout period has ended after the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, with an 8-4 majority. Four members dissented from the hold decision, of which three called for a move away from the easing bias.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms as the Bank of Canada (BoC) warned on Wednesday that interest rates could rise, with energy prices remaining higher.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades close to Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 at the press time. The pair holds a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3698 and a Fibonacci-heavy resistance band starting at the 61.8% retracement near 1.3667.

A shift in the Relative Strength Index (14) below 40.00 warrants fresh downside momentum with no oversold signals in sight.

On the downside, the pair could slide towards the March 9 low of 1.3525 and the swing low at 1.3482 if it fails to hold the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3585.

On the topside, a recovery would first face resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3667, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3698 and the 50% retracement near 1.3725; only a sustained break above this cluster would ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward higher retracement barriers at 1.3782 and 1.3853.

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USD/CHF remains above 0.7800 as US Dollar gains on risk-off mood

  • USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand after Trump vowed to maintain the Iran port blockade.
  • US Core PCE rose 3.2% YoY, up from 3% in February and in line with forecasts.
  • Thursday’s ZEW Swiss Expectations rose to -30.3 in April from -35.0, recovering from a six-month low.

USD/CHF inches higher after posting 1.25% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains ground as the safe-haven demand supports the US Dollar (USD) against its major peers.

Market sentiment remains cautious after Bloomberg reported on Thursday that US President Donald Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports, amid concerns that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may not reopen in the near term. Trump also criticized congressional efforts aimed at restricting his war powers, including a recent Senate proposal that was rejected earlier in the day.

On Thursday, data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.7%. The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge excluding volatile food and energy components, advanced 3.2% YoY, following a 3% rise in February and matching analysts’ forecasts.

Meanwhile, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2026, falling short of the 2.3% market expectation but improving from the previous 0.5% growth.

On the Swiss side, the KOF Leading Indicator rose to 97.9 in April 2026 from 95.6 in March, beating the 95.9 forecast on gains in manufacturing, services, and consumption, data showed on Thursday.

Earlier this week, the ZEW Swiss Survey Expectations improved to -30.3 in April from -35.0 in March, a six-month low. More than half of respondents expect the outlook to remain stable over the next six months, while slightly over a third anticipate deterioration.

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CAD sits near its highest level since March 11 vs USD amid elevated Oil prices

  • USD/CAD remains depressed as elevated Crude Oil prices continue to underpin the Loonie.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate support the USD, limiting losses for the pair.
  • Spot prices seem poised to post losses for the fourth week as traders look to the US ISM PMI.

The USD/CAD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase after touching a fresh low since March 11 during the Asian session on Friday, and currently trades around the 1.3575 region. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the fourth straight week.

Crude Oil prices stall the previous day’s retracement slide from a nearly four-week top amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. In fact, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues to a later stage. Trump further said that he’s going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program.

Moreover, reports suggest that the US is considering new military strikes on Iran, which acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and capping the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) recovers slightly following the overnight slump to a one-and-a-half week low amid the US-Iran stalemate and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt. This offers some support to the currency pair and helps limit the downside.

The Fed’s decision on Wednesday to hold its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% saw three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Adding to this, the Advance US GDP report released on Thursday pointed to continued economic resilience, while the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed that inflation accelerated in March. The data reaffirms bets that the Fed could keep rates unchanged and supports the USD.

Traders, however, are still pricing in a small possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by the end of this year. The expectations, in turn, hold the USD bulls on the back foot, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus heading into the weekend.

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EUR/USD Price Holds onto gains near 1.1730

  • EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1735 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
  • Investors await the ECB commentaries and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
  • The US GDP growth remained at 2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year.

The EUR/USD pair clings to Thursday’s gains near 1.1735 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto the previous day’s losses, which were driven by suspected Japan’s intervention in forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades weakly near Thursday’s low around 98.00.

On Thursday, the US preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrived weaker than projected. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.3% estimates.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive higher at 53.0 from the previous reading of 52.7.

During the Asian trade, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm, with investors awaiting commentaries from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, following the completion of the so-called quiet period after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

EUR/USD trades firmly at around 1.1735, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1702 and between key Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest swing. The pair is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 1.1745, suggesting topside progress is slowing but not yet reversing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at constructive, yet not overextended, upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1825, with further barriers at 1.1938 and 1.2082. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1702, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408 acting as a more distant structural floor.

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EUR/JPY remains stronger near 184.50 following Tokyo inflation data

  • EUR/JPY rises as the Japanese Yen weakens after mixed Tokyo inflation data.
  • Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in April; core CPI also 1.5%, missing the 1.8% forecast.
  • The ECB kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation driven by the Iran conflict.

EUR/JPY gains ground after registering 1.88% losses in the previous day, trading around 184.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross advances as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens following mixed Tokyo inflation data.

Japan’s Statistics Bureau reported Friday that Tokyo’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 1.4% prior. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) also increased 1.5% YoY, missing the 1.8% forecast and down from 1.7% previously. Meanwhile, CPI excluding fresh food and energy eased to 1.5% from 1.7%.

The JPY found some support against major peers after suspected intervention by Tokyo, which came hours after officials issued a “final” warning against excessive currency selling. Although the Finance Ministry has not confirmed action, the sharp market move led traders to attribute it to government support. Investors are now weighing the chances of further intervention, as authorities often act in multiple rounds.

Japan’s top FX official, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura, declined to comment on intervention or crude oil futures, but noted ongoing close communication with the US on currency matters.

The Euro (EUR) also gains support after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. The governing council kept the deposit rate at 2% despite rising Eurozone inflation amid the Iran conflict, stating that while the outlook remains broadly unchanged, upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have increased.