- EUR/USD gains ground to near 1.1370 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The bearish outlook of the major pair remains intact below the key 100-day SMA, with oversold RSI momentum.
- The initial support level to watch is 1.1350; the first upside barrier is seen at 1.1411.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1370 during the early European session on Thursday. A surprisingly hawkish message from Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair last week has traders pricing a US hike as soon as September. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the key US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.
The headline PCE is expected to show a rise of 4.1% YoY in May, versus 3.8% prior, while the core PCE is projected to show an increase of 3.4% YoY in May, compared to 3.3% in April. If the reports show hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could reinforce the expectation of US interest rate hikes later this year and underpin the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/USD extends its decline below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and remains well under the 100-day moving average, keeping the broader tone decisively bearish. Price is only slightly above the lower Bollinger Band support at 1.1351, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 28.3 slips into oversold territory, hinting at stretched downside conditions but not yet signaling a firm rebound.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1350, where a sustained break would open the door to further losses toward the 1.1300 psychological level. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the March 13 low of 1.1411, en route to the 20-day Bollinger middle band near 1.1530 and the 100-day moving average at 1.1650. Only a recovery above this layered resistance zone would start to ease the current bearish pressure.
