- USD/CHF gains ground amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 63.4% probability of an interest rate increase in September.
- Swiss investor sentiment plunged to -25.0 in June from -11.1 in May, remaining deeply in negative territory.
USD/CHF gains ground after registering nearly 0.30%, trading around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in a 63.4% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates during its September 15–16 meeting.
This hawkish sentiment is fueled by accelerating inflation data, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbing to 4.1% year-over-year in May, up from 3.3% in April. This surge, the first time the headline figure has breached 4.0% in three years, is largely attributed to rising energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, keeping the prospect of further rate increases this year firmly on the table.
Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, rose to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3%. This represents the highest annual core reading since October 2023.
Swiss investor sentiment worsened significantly in June 2026, dropping to -25.0 from -11.1 in May and remaining deeply negative. According to the latest UBS & CFA Society Switzerland survey, the economic expectations index experienced a sharp month-on-month decline of 13.9 points.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) elected to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 0% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reiterating that its current monetary stance supports both economic growth and price stability. However, the central bank also raised its inflation forecasts and reminded markets that it remains fully prepared to step into the foreign exchange markets if currency pressures demand it.
