A report released by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday revealed that the impact of weak Japanese Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock. The weakening of the JPY pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.
Key quotes
Impact of weak Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock.
Weak Yen pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.
Oil price rises put fairly big upward pressure on smaller number of goods related to energy, which means impact on CPI excluding fresh food, energy isn’t very big.
Weak Yen shock expands wage, profit margin and leads to increase in GDP deflater, while energy shock squeezes wage, profit margin and leads to decrease in GDP deflater.
Under risk scenario projecting elevated oil prices, weaker Yen, stock falls, real GDP forecasts will be -0.1% point to 0.2% point lower in fiscal 2026-2028 than BoJ’s median baseline projections.
Under risk scenario, core consumer inflation will overshoot significantly from BoJ’s median baseline projections, could hover around 3% in fiscal 2026, 2027.
Such overshoot of inflation could heighten medium-, long-term inflation expectations.
If there is big supply chain disruption, real GDP could undershoot sharply while bottlenecks could lead to non-linear rise in inflation.
BoJ will scrutinise various risk factors more than ever as growth, price developments could sharply deviate from its baseline projections depending on Middle East developments.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.02% on the day at 160.48.
