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CAD sits near its highest level since March 11 vs USD amid elevated Oil prices

  • USD/CAD remains depressed as elevated Crude Oil prices continue to underpin the Loonie.
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate support the USD, limiting losses for the pair.
  • Spot prices seem poised to post losses for the fourth week as traders look to the US ISM PMI.

The USD/CAD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase after touching a fresh low since March 11 during the Asian session on Friday, and currently trades around the 1.3575 region. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the fourth straight week.

Crude Oil prices stall the previous day’s retracement slide from a nearly four-week top amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. In fact, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues to a later stage. Trump further said that he’s going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program.

Moreover, reports suggest that the US is considering new military strikes on Iran, which acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and capping the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) recovers slightly following the overnight slump to a one-and-a-half week low amid the US-Iran stalemate and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt. This offers some support to the currency pair and helps limit the downside.

The Fed’s decision on Wednesday to hold its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% saw three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Adding to this, the Advance US GDP report released on Thursday pointed to continued economic resilience, while the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed that inflation accelerated in March. The data reaffirms bets that the Fed could keep rates unchanged and supports the USD.

Traders, however, are still pricing in a small possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by the end of this year. The expectations, in turn, hold the USD bulls on the back foot, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus heading into the weekend.

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USD/CAD edges lower as Oil retreat, Fed-BoC policy split keep volatility elevated

  • USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.3655 after a flat day previously.
  • Declining Oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar, although structural support remains.
  • Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoC keep volatility elevated.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3655 on Thursday, down 0.21% on the day, after stabilizing in the previous day. The pair faces short-term pressure due to a modest pullback in the US Dollar, although downside momentum may remain limited in an uncertain macro environment.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shows resilience despite the recent decline in Oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked currency. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is falling after several days of gains, trading around $103 per barrel, which typically weighs on the Loonie given Canada’s position as the largest Crude exporter to the United States (US). However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions continue to support the broader outlook for Canada’s energy sector.

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and adopted a wait-and-see stance while keeping options open. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasizes a data-dependent approach, noting that no preset path is in place. Inflation is projected slightly higher for 2026 and wage pressures remain persistent, limiting the scope for near-term easing. The central bank also signaled that trade shocks from the United States could justify rate cuts, while sustained energy-driven inflation could require tightening.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) corrects lower after two days of gains. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates within the 3.5%-3.75% range, with a divided vote reflecting rare internal disagreement. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains elevated, partly due to higher energy prices, reinforcing a broadly hawkish stance.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.26%-0.32%-2.00%-0.21%-0.52%-0.54%-0.67%
EUR0.26%-0.03%-1.69%0.05%-0.25%-0.25%-0.38%
GBP0.32%0.03%-1.62%0.09%-0.20%-0.21%-0.36%
JPY2.00%1.69%1.62%1.70%1.40%1.33%1.22%
CAD0.21%-0.05%-0.09%-1.70%-0.32%-0.35%-0.46%
AUD0.52%0.25%0.20%-1.40%0.32%-0.01%-0.13%
NZD0.54%0.25%0.21%-1.33%0.35%0.00%-0.13%
CHF0.67%0.38%0.36%-1.22%0.46%0.13%0.13%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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BREAKING: Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, USDCAD extends gains

Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision:

  • Actual 2.25%
  • Forecast 2.25%
  • Previous 2.25%

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy interest rate at 2.25%, a level held since October. The Governing Council decided to “look through” the immediate inflationary impact of the Middle East war. However, policy remains “nimble,” with potential for rate hikes if energy price shocks lead to persistent, generalized inflation. Economic projections:

  • Inflation Outlook : March CPI inflation rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in February, driven by surging gasoline prices. Inflation is forecast to peak at 3% in April before returning to the 2% target in early 2027.
  • Economic Growth Projections : GDP growth is projected at 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.7% by 2028 as trade and investment gradually recover. While consumption and government spending support the economy, US tariffs and trade uncertainty—specifically the CUSMA review—weigh on exports. Canada’s net oil exporter status provides some relative resilience.
  • Labor Market and Risks : The labor market is soft, with unemployment between 6.5% and 7%. Key risks include new US trade restrictions, which could trigger rate cuts, or persistent energy price pressures that might necessitate consecutive rate increases. Productivity is seeing an early boost from businesses adopting artificial intelligence technologies.

Source: xStation5

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USD/CAD – Holds onto gains near 1.3700 in countdown to BoC-Fed policy

  • USD/CAD trades firmly near 1.3700 as the US Dollar gains ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy.
  • The Fed and the BoC are expected to hold interest rates steady.
  • Investors await fresh cues on the US inflation and the interest rate outlook.

The USD/CAD pair clings to Tuesday’s gains around 1.3690 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 98.75.

Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as elevated energy prices have de-anchored inflation projections globally. Market participants will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to get fresh cues on inflation and the United States (US) interest rate outlook.

Ahead of the Fed’s policy, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its monetary policy at 13:45 GMT, in which it is also expected to hold interest rates steady. Market participants will closely monitor remarks regarding the Canadian labor market outlook, with the Unemployment Rate remaining higher at 6.7%.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD reflects strength at around 1.3690 as of writing. However, the price keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3724.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 suggests fading bullish momentum and hints that sellers are gaining incremental control while price remains capped by the overhead EMA.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-period EMA at 1.3724, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and reopen a push toward 1.3800. Looking down, initial support is seen at the former trend-line-based floor near 1.3593; a sustained break below that area would reinforce the developing bearish phase.

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Canadian Dollar consolidates vs USD as traders keenly await BoC/FOMC rate decisions

  • USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on the overnight recovery gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
  • The US-Iran statement benefits the safe-haven USD, while bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie.
  • Traders also seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoC/FOMC decisions.

The USD/CAD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 1.3700 mark, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid a combination of diverging forces. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks continues to benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and supports spot prices. However, bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the currency pair.

Hopes for a revival of US-Iran peace talks receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy’s planned visit to Pakistan. Furthermore, media reports suggest that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s new proposal on resolving the war and reopening the strategic waterway, but would set ‌aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and continues to benefit the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran’s restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to dismantle its entire nuclear program. This keeps Crude Oil prices elevated near the highest level in over two weeks and keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of key central bank events. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its policy decision later during the North American session, and will be followed by the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants will look for fresh cues about the central banks’ future policy path, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and determine the next leg of a directional move.

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CAD dips vs USD; Oil strength to limit losses and cap USD/CAD

  • USD/CAD edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though the upside seems limited.
  • The uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks revives USD demand and lends support to spot prices.
  • Elevated Oil prices underpin the Loonie and cap the pair ahead of the BoC/Fed rate decisions.

The USD/CAD pair reverses a modest Asian session dip on Tuesday and looks to build on the previous day’s modest rebound from sub-1.3600 levels, or the lowest since March 12. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3630 region, though the upside potential seems limited amid a combination of diverging forces.

Mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks assist the US Dollar (USD) to attract some safe-haven flows and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, Iran reportedly gave the ‌US a new proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a ‌later stage. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump was skeptical about Iran not dealing in good faith or being open to meeting his key demand of ending nuclear enrichment.

Meanwhile, continued disruptions to shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, which underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and keeps a lid on the USD/CAD pair. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week’s key central bank event risks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, and will be followed by the outcome of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting.

Investors will look for fresh cues about the future policy outlook amid expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. This, in turn, will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair. The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair’s recent fall, witnessed since the beginning of this month, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful recovery in the near term.

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The CAD advances as oil prices gain on stalled US–Iran peace talks

  • USD/CAD falls as the Canadian Dollar gains support from higher oil prices.
  • WTI rises after Trump canceled Pakistan talks delegation, heightening supply concerns.
  • Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price receives support after registering 2.4% losses in the previous day, trading around $94.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices advance on rising supply concerns amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran.

President Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

Meanwhile, traffic through the strategic waterway remains largely restricted due to Iran’s controls and the US naval blockade, heightening fears of prolonged disruptions and providing further support to crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair is also subdued as the US Dollar (USD) extends its losses for the second successive day despite increased safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.

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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.3700 to test nine-day EMA

  • USD/CAD may fall toward the descending channel support at 1.3560.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index falls to 44, signaling strengthening bearish momentum.
  • The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3714.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3710 during the early European hours on Friday. However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the descending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bearish bias.

The USD/CAD pair holds a modest bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped under the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The pair has been fading from last month’s highs while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 44, hinting at strengthening bearish momentum and leaving the downside vulnerable as long as price trades beneath these overlapping EMA barriers.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.3560. A sustained break below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to fall toward 1.3473, the lowest since September 2024.

The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3714, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3750, aligned with the upper descending channel boundary. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the USD/CAD pair to explore the region around the four-month high of 1.3967, reached in December 2025.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart

Canadian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.04%-0.03%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.16%
EUR-0.06%-0.01%0.00%0.03%0.03%0.06%0.10%
GBP-0.04%0.00%-2.13%0.04%0.06%0.09%0.11%
JPY0.03%0.00%2.13%0.11%0.12%0.14%0.17%
CAD-0.08%-0.03%-0.04%-0.11%0.00%0.02%0.07%
AUD-0.10%-0.03%-0.06%-0.12%0.00%0.01%0.05%
NZD-0.12%-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%
CHF-0.16%-0.10%-0.11%-0.17%-0.07%-0.05%-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).