CAD 3 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 24, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – AUDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for AUDCAD, NZDUSD, and USDJPY?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

AUDCAD

Since late March, AUDCAD has been trending upward. The key level remains the support at 0.9755, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern, as well as from previous local peaks. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect. However, it is worth noting the lack of a clear demand reaction—further tests of this support level could weaken it, increasing the risk of a breakout to the downside. Therefore, the 0.9755 level is critical in the short term for the direction of the market.

AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since early April, the NZDUSD pair has been trending upward, but the market is currently testing key support at the 0.5840 level. Holding this level could trigger another upward move. Conversely, a break below this level and a return below 0.5828 could pave the way for a resumption of the downward trend. The current levels are therefore crucial for determining the short-term direction.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending upward for quite some time, but in April we saw a consolidation phase and two tests of support at the 158.10 level. This level was successfully defended, which supports the current uptrend. A break above the March 29 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, as long as support at 158.10 holds, the base case scenario is for further gains. A break below this level, however, could lead to a larger correction toward 155.11.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 24, 2026 No Comments

CAD steadies as US Dollar firms on safe-haven demand

USD/CAD holds ground as the US Dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand amid persistent US–Iran conflict uncertainty.
US intercepted two Iranian supertankers evading its blockade, as Tehran threatens vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher energy prices raise the likelihood of a more hawkish Bank of Canada stance.

USD/CAD remains flat following a three-day winning streak, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its position as safe-haven demand increases amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict.

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping while Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.

US President Donald Trump warned that if Iran does not move its oil, its infrastructure would be targeted. Iranian officials, however, denied agreeing to any extension of the truce and accused Washington of breaching it by maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian trade.

The Greenback also found additional support from resilient US economic data. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K from 212K, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Meanwhile, S&P Global PMIs surprised to the upside, with Manufacturing at 54.0 and Services at 51.3, pointing to sustained expansion in business activity.

The latest data showed that higher energy prices lifted Canada’s annual consumer inflation by 0.6% to 2.4% in April, in line with Bank of Canada (BoC) warnings that rising energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations.

Elevated energy prices have increased the likelihood of a more hawkish response from the Bank of Canada. Oil and refined product prices moved sharply higher as commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under attack from both the US and Iran, reinforcing the risk of prolonged disruptions to tanker flows from the region.

Currency Hedger April 23, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EURCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures EURCAD Since March 10, EURCAD has been trading in an uptrend; however, during yesterday’s session, the local 1:1 bullish pattern was negated at the 1.6040 level. According to the Overbalance methodology, this may support a scenario involving a return to the downtrend. Further confirmation would be a return of the price below the 1.5948 level, i.e., back into the previous downtrend. On the other hand, a break above 1.6040 could restore the bullish scenario.

EURCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURUSD Since mid-March, the EURUSD has been trending upward, but in recent days we have seen a downward correction. The price is approaching key support at the 1.1650 level, which stems from the lower boundary of the local 1:1 pattern. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a sustained break below the 1.1650 level would open the way for a return to the downtrend.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation GBPUSD The GBPUSD pair is showing a situation very similar to that of the EURUSD. An uptrend has been in place since late March, but a correction has emerged in recent days. Should this correction deepen, the key support level remains at 1.3428. A break below this level could open the way for declines, which would be confirmed upon a drop below 1.3360—the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward geometric pattern.

GBPUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 23, 2026 No Comments

CAD flat lines as traders await US PMI data

USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3670 in Thursday’s early European session.
Trump extended the ceasefire and vowed to continue the US blockade on Iranian ports.
Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the S&P Global US PMI report for April, which is due on Thursday.

The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note around 1.3670 during the early European session on Thursday. The pair steadies as traders await signs of diplomatic progress to end the war in the Middle East.

The US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request as US President Donald Trump waits for a unified proposal from Iran. Nonetheless, tensions remain high in the Middle East as Tehran keeps a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage through the trade route and firing on ships.

Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated Israel’s warmongering and “flagrant” ceasefire breaches made reopening the Strait of Hormuz “impossible.” Surging oil prices, driven by Middle East conflict risks, lift the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

The preliminary reading of the S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the highlight later on Thursday. The Manufacturing PMI figure is expected to improve slightly to 52.5 in April from 52.3 in the previous reading. Services PMI is projected to rise to 50.0 in April, versus 49.8 prior. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback against the CAD in the near term.

Currency Hedger April 22, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hovers near 1.3650 as RSI remains bearish

USD/CAD trades sideways as a bullish piercing pattern emerges on the chart.
RSI remains bearish, suggesting downside pressure still dominates the trend.
Break above 1.3709 targets 1.3727 and 1.3742 resistance levels.

USD/CAD continues to trade laterally on Wednesday during the North American session, flattish at around 1.3658, as the pair seems capped by Monday’s price action, in which the Loonie appreciated 0.34% against the US Dollar (USD).

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Monday, the USD/CAD pair reached a daily high of 1.3709 and closed near the lows at 1.3644, extending a six-day streak of bearish sessions. Nevertheless, bulls moved in, finishing Tuesday in the green, up 0.15%, and forming a ‘bullish piercing pattern,’ which requires clearing the current week’s high of 1.3709 for further upside.

Momentum remains shifted to the downside as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, if sellers move in and clear Tuesday’s swing low of 1.3631, a move towards the 1.3600 figure is on the cards. Below, the next area of interest is the March 9 daily low at 1.3525.

On the upside, buyers must clear the 1.3700 figure, with immediate resistance seen at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3727. Up next is the 100-day SMA at 1.3742, with the next supply area at 1.3800.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily

Currency Hedger April 22, 2026 No Comments

EUR/CAD steadies below 1.6050 as improved oil prices lift Canadian Dollar

EUR/CAD holds losses as the Canadian Dollar gains on improved oil prices.
Maritime authorities said an IRGC-linked gunboat fired on a Liberia-flagged vessel and two other cargo ships.
ECB’s Lagarde warns Eurozone outlook is highly uncertain due to a significant energy supply shock.

EUR/CAD extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.6040 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross stays subdued as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a stronger risk-on mood after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire despite the collapse of second-round US–Iran talks.

Moreover, the commodity-linked CAD is further supported by firmer oil prices amid renewed attacks on shipping near Iran. Maritime authorities reported that a Liberia-flagged container vessel was fired upon by a gunboat linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while two additional outbound cargo ships were also targeted.

However, a Bloomberg headline, citing Tasnim News Agency affiliated with the IRGC, noted that Iran has received “some sign” the United States (US) may be willing to ease its naval blockade.

The Canadian Dollar may continue to gain as rising energy prices could boost foreign exchange inflows into Canada’s financial system, reflecting the country’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States. Higher energy costs could also lift inflation, potentially prompting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to signal a firm stance against persistent price pressures, further underpinning the currency.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that the Eurozone outlook remains highly uncertain due to a significant energy supply shock tied to Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While energy prices have yet to reach worst-case levels, she stressed that the outlook remains fragile.

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD steadies as Middle East war support Dollar, Canada CPI data looms

USD/CAD hovers near 1.3700 after rebounding from the monthly low around 1.3650 reached on Friday.
Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Investors await Canada’s March inflation data, which could influence monetary policy expectations.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3690 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, after rebounding from the monthly low near 1.3650 reached on Friday. The recovery remains limited as investors balance demand for the US Dollar (USD) with support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices.

The US Dollar is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran indicated that no new round of negotiations with the United States (US) is planned, accusing Washington of maintaining excessive pressure and violating the ceasefire through the continuation of its maritime blockade. These developments have revived risk aversion and supported the Greenback.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edges higher around 98.30. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have warned about the economic risks associated with a prolonged war in the Middle East, particularly through persistently higher energy prices that could fuel inflation.

However, gains in USD/CAD remain capped by rising Oil prices, a factor that typically supports the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is up 4.06% on Monday, trading around $87.30 at the time of press, supported by concerns over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian threats against commercial vessels.

Market attention now turns to the release of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which is due later in the day. Economists expect monthly inflation to accelerate to 1.1%, after 0.5% in February, while annual inflation could rise to 2.5%. Higher energy costs largely drive the expected increase.

These figures could complicate the outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC). If inflation accelerates sharply, markets could revive expectations of monetary tightening, even as Canada’s economic growth remains fragile.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.11%	0.21%	-0.01%	0.23%	0.10%	-0.00%
EUR	-0.03%		0.09%	0.13%	-0.06%	0.19%	0.10%	-0.05%
GBP	-0.11%	-0.09%		0.04%	-0.13%	0.10%	-0.01%	-0.15%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.04%		-0.17%	0.05%	-0.10%	-0.19%
CAD	0.01%	0.06%	0.13%	0.17%		0.23%	0.08%	-0.02%
AUD	-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.23%		-0.13%	-0.24%
NZD	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.00%	0.10%	-0.08%	0.13%		-0.11%
CHF	0.00%	0.05%	0.15%	0.19%	0.02%	0.24%	0.11%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger April 17, 2026 No Comments

CAD receives support from higher oil prices

USD/CAD slips as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar strengthens amid a modest rise in oil prices.
Lebanon’s army recorded multiple Israeli ceasefire violations after the truce took effect.
The US Dollar Index gains support from safe-haven demand amid cautious sentiment ahead of weekend US–Iran talks.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair inches lower as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) edges higher amid a slight increase in oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds gains near $90.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices receive support from supply concerns, which could be attributed to the market caution surrounding the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire talks.

CNN reported on Friday that the Lebanese army said that it recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce went into effect. Lebanon accused Israel of committing “several acts of aggression,” saying intermittent shelling has impacted several villages in southern Lebanon. The army urged citizens to delay returning to southern towns and villages in light of the alleged ceasefire violations.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had spoken with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that began at 5 PM ET.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair is restrained as the US Dollar Index (DXY) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid market caution ahead of the upcoming meeting between the United States (US) and Iran scheduled for the weekend.

Washington and Tehran are expected to resume their discussions over the weekend, with President Trump expressing optimism that both nations could secure a permanent ceasefire before it expires next week.