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USD/CHF stays near 0.7800 as US dollar firms on US-Iran tensions

  • USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over US–Iran talks.
  • President Trump said Vice President Vance will leave Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations.
  • Traders expect SNB policymakers ready to intervene in FX markets to curb excessive Swiss Franc appreciation.

USD/CHF edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from increasing risk aversion, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding US–Iran ceasefire negotiations. Traders assess ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the 14-day ceasefire deadline approaches.

Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump stated that US Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.” Iran is also sending a team, although it is unclear who would lead the delegation.

President Donald Trump has issued mixed signals earlier on the Iran war, saying he is not rushing to end it while expressing optimism about renewed talks with Tehran ahead of Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry.

However, the upside of the USD/CHF pair could be limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may find support from safe-haven inflows. Additionally, the CHF may also gain ground as rising concerns over a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Meanwhile, SNB meeting minutes from March highlighted growing uncertainty surrounding Switzerland’s economic outlook.

Market participants expect the SNB to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Traders await Swiss Trade Balance data due later in the day.

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USD/CHF – US Dollar bulls remain capped below 0.7845

  • USD/CHF bounces up from 0.7775 but remains capped below 0.7845.
  • Markets have turned cautious as the US-Iran peace talks wobble.
  • The pair maintains its bearish trend from late-March highs intact.

The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.

Market sentiment has turned cautious on Monday, as hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war wane, which is providing marginal support to the US Dollar. Iranian authorities are threatening to skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday

Investors, nevertheless, remain faithful that these moves are part of a complex process, and that Washington and Tehran will redress the situation and return to the negotiating table this week. This is keeping most US Dollar pairs at levels relatively close to last week’s peaks.

Technical Analysis: Treading water around $0.7800

USD/CHF Chart Analysis

The USD/CHF reversal from the 0.8050 area in late March has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the January 27 low to the March 31 high, near 0.7775, but the near-term bias remains negative, as upside attempts remain capped below the 0.7845 area.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced out of oversold territory toward the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers marginally above zero with a shallow positive profile, which only hints at fading downside pressure rather than a decisive turn higher.

The pair should breach the mentioned 0.7845 level (April 16 high), to set its focus on the April 8 and 10 highs, at the 0.7930 area, and the descending trendline, now around 0.7950. On the downside, below the mentioned 0.7775, the next target is the area between 78.2% retracement, at 0.7700, and the February 27 low, at 0.7670.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%0.02%0.22%0.00%0.23%0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.02%0.03%0.21%0.00%0.24%0.12%-0.03%
GBP-0.02%-0.03%0.19%-0.01%0.20%0.09%-0.07%
JPY-0.22%-0.21%-0.19%-0.18%0.03%-0.13%-0.24%
CAD-0.01%-0.00%0.00%0.18%0.21%0.07%-0.05%
AUD-0.23%-0.24%-0.20%-0.03%-0.21%-0.11%-0.27%
NZD-0.11%-0.12%-0.09%0.13%-0.07%0.11%-0.15%
CHF0.03%0.03%0.07%0.24%0.05%0.27%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Breaks below key SMAs, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
  • RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.

For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.

On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.78%-0.92%-0.59%-1.23%-2.48%-1.43%-1.14%
EUR0.78%-0.15%0.17%-0.43%-1.65%-0.66%-0.34%
GBP0.92%0.15%0.26%-0.30%-1.50%-0.51%-0.18%
JPY0.59%-0.17%-0.26%-0.66%-1.84%-0.74%-0.57%
CAD1.23%0.43%0.30%0.66%-1.10%-0.09%0.11%
AUD2.48%1.65%1.50%1.84%1.10%1.06%1.27%
NZD1.43%0.66%0.51%0.74%0.09%-1.06%0.31%
CHF1.14%0.34%0.18%0.57%-0.11%-1.27%-0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF – Bearish Flag formation warrants more downside below 0.7790

  • USD/CHF rises to near 0.7825 as Iran truce optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
  • US President Trump has stated multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran.
  • The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.15% lower at around 0.7825 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.08. The DXY is close to its over six-week low of 97.83 posted on Thursday.

The hopes of an Iran truce remain firm as US President Donald Trump has stated multiple times that Tehran is eager to reach a deal soon. On Thursday, Trump said in a press briefing, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump added that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its plans to pursue nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, traders have completely pared hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) for the year, as capped oil prices due to Iran truce optimism have again anchored inflation expectations globally.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF trades lower at around 0.7825 as of writing, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7883. On the daily chart, the pair exhibits a Bearish Flag formation, which warrants the continuation of the downside trend after a period of consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 42 leans to the weak side and hints that rebounds may continue to struggle beneath overhead supply.

On the downside, the channel bottom around 0.7798 is the first line of support, and a clear move below that floor would expose a deeper retracement within the broader bearish structure defined by the longer-term downward trend line towards the March 10 low of 0.7748, followed by the February 23 low of 0.7710.

Looking up, initial resistance emerges at the channel top near 0.7850, followed by the 20-period EMA at 0.7883; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and extend the recovery towards the April 13 high of 0.7934.

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USD/CHF stays near 0.7850 amid increased market caution

  • USD/CHF steadies as traders remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding ongoing US–Iran peace deal discussions.
  • SNB March Meeting Minutes flagged rising economic uncertainty, citing the Middle East conflict as a key inflation risk.
  • The US Dollar Index gains support from safe-haven demand after Israel–Lebanon ceasefire violations.

USD/CHF moves little after two days of gains, trading around 0.7830 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as traders adopt caution on uncertainty over US–Iran peace deal discussions.

March Meeting Minutes from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) highlighted rising uncertainty surrounding Switzerland’s economic outlook, with global developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, identified as key inflation risks.

Policymakers also noted that, amid elevated geopolitical tensions and safe-haven inflows, the SNB is likely to stay ready to intervene in FX markets to prevent an abrupt and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc that could threaten price stability.

The USD/CHF pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar Index (DXY) receives support from increased safe-haven demand following a CNN report that the Lebanese army recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce came into effect. US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that started at 5 PM ET.

Lebanon accused Israel of carrying out “several acts of aggression,” noting that intermittent shelling has affected several villages in southern Lebanon. The army also urged residents to delay returning to southern towns and villages amid the reported ceasefire breaches.

Moreover, Washington and Tehran are expected to resume discussions over the weekend, with President Trump maintaining an optimistic tone on the chances that both sides could secure a lasting ceasefire before its expiration next week.

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Trade of the day: GBPCHF (16.04.2026)

Facts

  • GBPCHF pair moved back above the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA14; light purple) yesterday, despite a brief dip below 1.058 during the early session.
  • One week Risk Reversal indicator has reached its highest level since July 2024.
  • RSI is currently oscillating between 50 and 60.

Recommendation

  • Long Position (BUY) at market price in GBPCHF
  • Target Prices (Take Profit): 1.06340 (TP1), 1.06645 (TP2)
  • Stop Loss (SL): 1.05400

Source: xStation5

Opinion

The GBPCHF sell-off triggered by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East capped months of Sterling weakness, driven by growth concerns and expectations of UK rate cuts. Approximately one week after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the pair initiated an upward trajectory. This shift is supported by the UK’s significant exposure to surging natural gas prices, which increases the risk of an inflationary rebound and a return to interest rate hikes.

Following a correction earlier this week, the pair is gradually rebounding, confirming the ongoing trend. While the UK still faces a high risk of stagflation, today’s GDP data (+0.5% m/m; exceeding the Reuters consensus of 0.1%) has somewhat cooled recession fears amid energy price inflation. Growing optimism is also reflected in the options market: the 1-week Risk Reversal is at its highest since July 2024, indicating a decrease in hedging demand against Sterling declines (i.e., fewer PUT options).

Sterling should remain supported against the Franc in the short term, regardless of further developments in the Strait of Hormuz. In an escalation scenario, concerns over energy price pressure would exert symmetrical pressure on the Bank of England to resume rate hikes (the market currently prices one 25 bps hike for September). Conversely, de-escalation would reduce fears of economic stagnation and dampen demand for safe-haven assets, including the Franc. It is worth noting that the Franc also lost ground against the Dollar in March, suggesting it was not the primary choice for investors seeking a “safe harbor” for capital.

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the GBPCHF chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (focusing on UK monetary policy).

  • Directional Bias: Established using moving averages, price action, and market expectations regarding central bank responses to the Middle East conflict.
  • Exit Strategy: Target and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements of the latest downward leg, Bollinger Bands, and Price Action. TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval. TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd. Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.
  • TP1: Set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band on the 14-day interval.
  • TP2: Set at the resistance level established between February 2nd and 3rd.
  • Stop Loss: Placed at the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA.
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USD/CHF slumps to near 0.7800 as US Dollar extends decline amid Iran optimism

  • USD/CHF declines to near 0.7800 due to continued underperformance from the US Dollar.
  • The US Dollar has been battered by the US-Iran permanent ceasefire optimism.
  • US President Trump expresses confidence in some positive announcements relating to Iran soon.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.2% lower to near 0.7800 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) continues to underperform amid increasing hopes that the United States (US) and Iran would reach a permanent ceasefire soon.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 97.85, the lowest level seen in over six weeks.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.17%-0.27%-0.17%-0.29%-0.06%-0.19%
EUR0.13%-0.04%-0.13%-0.04%-0.15%0.04%-0.06%
GBP0.17%0.04%-0.09%-0.02%-0.13%0.08%-0.03%
JPY0.27%0.13%0.09%0.08%-0.01%0.14%0.07%
CAD0.17%0.04%0.02%-0.08%-0.11%0.10%-0.01%
AUD0.29%0.15%0.13%0.01%0.11%0.19%0.12%
NZD0.06%-0.04%-0.08%-0.14%-0.10%-0.19%-0.10%
CHF0.19%0.06%0.03%-0.07%0.01%-0.12%0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The optimism over a US-Iran permanent truce has diminished the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Also, traders have priced out the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year on expectations that oil prices will fall if the US and Iran reach a deal. Higher oil prices forced traders to raise hawkish Fed bets for the year in March. There was anticipation of at least one interest rate hike this year.

The US-Iran optimism has been prompted by comments from US President Donald Trump that there could be a positive announcement over Middle East conflicts, which came on early Wednesday. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Trump said in an interview with ABC News.

In Switzerland, investors await the Producer and Import Prices data of March, which will be published at 06:30 GMT. The data is estimated to have grown 0.2% after declining 0.3% in February.

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USD/CHF sees more downside below 0.7800 as US-Iran talks to resume soon

  • USD/CHF trades vulnerably around 0.7800 as the US Dollar underperforms across the board.
  • US President Trump expresses confidence that the war with Iran is close to an end.
  • The US and Iran are expected to resume talks soon.

The USD/CHF pair trades flat around 0.7812 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday, but is still close to its monthly low of 0.7790 posted the previous day. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers amid optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could reach a permanent ceasefire soon.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher to near 98.15, but is still close to its almost seven-week low of 98.00.

The optimism over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire is backed by positive commentary from US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox Business earlier in the day, that the war with Iran is close to an end. “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over,” Trump said. He also said to The New York Post on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran could resume in Pakistan in the next two days.

US Vice President (VP) JD Vance also said in a public event that talks with Iran are taking place via channels including Pakistan, will continue, as “both sides work toward a deal”.

Meanwhile, traders are no longer pricing in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, as inflation expectations have de-anchored due to US-Iran optimism, a sharp turnaround from two hike projections seen in March after the war started.