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USD/CHF remains above 0.7800 as US Dollar gains on risk-off mood

  • USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand after Trump vowed to maintain the Iran port blockade.
  • US Core PCE rose 3.2% YoY, up from 3% in February and in line with forecasts.
  • Thursday’s ZEW Swiss Expectations rose to -30.3 in April from -35.0, recovering from a six-month low.

USD/CHF inches higher after posting 1.25% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains ground as the safe-haven demand supports the US Dollar (USD) against its major peers.

Market sentiment remains cautious after Bloomberg reported on Thursday that US President Donald Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports, amid concerns that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz may not reopen in the near term. Trump also criticized congressional efforts aimed at restricting his war powers, including a recent Senate proposal that was rejected earlier in the day.

On Thursday, data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.7%. The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge excluding volatile food and energy components, advanced 3.2% YoY, following a 3% rise in February and matching analysts’ forecasts.

Meanwhile, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 2.0% in Q1 2026, falling short of the 2.3% market expectation but improving from the previous 0.5% growth.

On the Swiss side, the KOF Leading Indicator rose to 97.9 in April 2026 from 95.6 in March, beating the 95.9 forecast on gains in manufacturing, services, and consumption, data showed on Thursday.

Earlier this week, the ZEW Swiss Survey Expectations improved to -30.3 in April from -35.0 in March, a six-month low. More than half of respondents expect the outlook to remain stable over the next six months, while slightly over a third anticipate deterioration.

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Trade of The Day – EUR/CHF

Facts:

  • The pair invalidated 1:1 structure at 0.9204
  • EURCHF is trading above the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Long EURCHF at market price Target: 0.9330, 0.9390 Stop: 0.9155

Opinion: Looking at EURCHF on the H4 interval, one can see a potential trend reversal. The pair managed to break above the 1:1 structure – according to the Overbalance strategy, such a situation heralds a bigger upward move. It seems that as long as the price sits above the 0.9204 support, continuation of the upward move is the base case scenario. In addition the pair sits above the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going long EURCHF at market price with two targets: 0.9330 and 0.9390. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9155. Source: xStation

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USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.7850 as Fed rate decision looms

  • USD/CHF gains traction around 0.7865 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • Fed interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 
  • SNB’s Schlegel reaffirmed that the central bank is open to policy adjustments and FX interventions to curb excessive Swiss Franc strength.

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength near 0.7865 during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to the stalled US-Iran ceasefire and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. 

Plans for a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran stalled again after US President Donald Trump had cancelled plans to send a team to Pakistan for negotiations with their Iranian counterparts.

On Monday, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war, as his bottom-line demands remain the same.

The US central bank is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% on Wednesday. This may be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair before his term expires on May 15.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept the policy rate at 0%. It aims to maintain this level to make the CHF less attractive to foreign investors. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reaffirmed at the April meeting that the bank is highly willing to intervene in foreign exchange (FX) markets by buying foreign currencies to weaken the CHF and protect price stability. He added that the current policy remains expansionary to support economic activity amidst “profound uncertainty.”

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Remains below 0.7850 near moving averages

  • USD/CHF may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.7690.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 47 signals weak momentum, not a clear oversold condition.
  • The initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.7843.

USD/CHF remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 0.7840 during European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned within the descending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bearish bias.

The USD/CHF pair keeps a bearish near-term bias as the spot price holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages, respectively. The short-term EMA flattening just above the price and the longer EMA capping the pair hint at persistent overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 reflects subdued momentum rather than a decisive oversold condition.

The USD/CHF pair may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.7690. A successful break below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test 0.7604, the lowest since August 2011, recorded in January.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.7843, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.7862. A break above these EMAs would improve price momentum and support the USD/CHF pair to test the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.7949. A sustained break above the channel would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and lead the pair to explore the region around the 10-month high of 0.8171, reached in August 2025.

USD/CHF: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Swiss Franc Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.24%-0.18%-0.14%-0.42%-0.54%-0.54%-0.18%
EUR0.24%0.07%0.11%-0.18%-0.26%-0.29%0.07%
GBP0.18%-0.07%0.02%-0.26%-0.36%-0.38%-0.01%
JPY0.14%-0.11%-0.02%-0.26%-0.39%-0.42%0.00%
CAD0.42%0.18%0.26%0.26%-0.12%-0.15%0.24%
AUD0.54%0.26%0.36%0.39%0.12%-0.01%0.36%
NZD0.54%0.29%0.38%0.42%0.15%0.01%0.37%
CHF0.18%-0.07%0.00%-0.00%-0.24%-0.36%-0.37%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejected at 100-day SMA, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF fails at 100-day SMA, signaling resistance remains intact.
  • RSI turns lower, confirming growing bearish momentum pressure.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.

Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7863 open the door to further downside.

If market mood remains optimistic, the USD/CHF could test lower levels, with the first area of interest at 0.7800. On further weakness, April 17 low of 0.7775 ─the last cycle low─, would be the next key support ahead of clearing the path towards the March 10 daily log of 0.7748, ahead of February’s 27 daily low of 0.7672.

On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the 100-day SMA, the next line of resistance would be the 0.7900 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 0.7936 ahead of 0.8000.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.15%-0.35%0.35%-0.14%-0.38%-0.34%0.43%
EUR-0.15%-0.51%0.00%-0.27%-0.52%-0.56%0.28%
GBP0.35%0.51%2.17%0.26%0.02%-0.02%0.79%
JPY-0.35%0.00%-2.17%-0.51%-0.67%-0.71%0.04%
CAD0.14%0.27%-0.26%0.51%-0.13%-0.21%0.55%
AUD0.38%0.52%-0.02%0.67%0.13%0.02%0.79%
NZD0.34%0.56%0.02%0.71%0.21%-0.02%0.77%
CHF-0.43%-0.28%-0.79%-0.04%-0.55%-0.79%-0.77%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF rises toward 0.7900 as renewed risk aversion lifts US Dollar

  • USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand amid persistent US–Iran conflict uncertainty.
  • Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon said the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%.”
  • Markets expect SNB intervention to curb rapid, excessive CHF appreciation.

USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.7870 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict.

The Guardian reported on Thursday that Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Danny Danon, said in a CNN News interview on Friday that the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%”.

The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade, as Washington presses ahead with efforts to curb Iran’s shipping, while Tehran continues to threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US military officials are also preparing contingency plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait should the current ceasefire collapse.

On the US data front. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K from 212K, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Meanwhile, S&P Global PMIs surprised to the upside, with Manufacturing at 54.0 and Services at 51.3, pointing to sustained expansion in business activity.

Earlier this week, Swiss data showed the Trade Surplus narrowed to CHF 2.7 billion in March, down from a downwardly revised six-month high of CHF 4.4 billion in February. Imports jumped 10.1% MoM to a four-month high of CHF 19.6 billion, while exports increased modestly by 1% to CHF 22.4 billion.

The upside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may find support from safe-haven inflows. Additionally, the CHF may also gain ground as rising concerns over a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Market participants expect the SNB to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the CHF.

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USD/CHF climbs further beyond mid-0.7800s as Hormuz risks continue to underpin USD

  • USD/CHF attracts buyers for the third consecutive day amid a broadly firmer US Dollar.
  • The Hormuz standoff and less dovish Fed expectations continue to underpin the buck.
  • Bulls now await sustained strength above the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets.

The USD/CHF pair turns positive for the third straight day following an intraday dip to the 0.7830 region and climbs to a fresh one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices climb beyond mid-0.7800s and look to build on this week’s recovery move from the lowest level since March 11 amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).

The initial optimism over a temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire fades rather quickly amid the lack of progress in peace talks and the instability in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports will continue, while Iran has set the complete removal of the US naval blockade as a precondition for resuming negotiations. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, assisting the USD in prolonging its uptrend for the third straight day and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters. This comes on top of continued disruptions to energy supplies through the strategic waterway, which remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns. Furthermore, a resilient US economy increases the threshold for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. This further supports the USD and validates the positive outlook for the USD/CHF pair.

Despite the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop, bulls might still await a sustained move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for further gains. Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the flash PMIs – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, remains on fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran saga, which might continue to infuse volatility around the USD/CHF pair.

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USD/CHF trades flat near 0.7800 as investors await Iran’s remarks on ceasefire extension

  • USD/CHF flattens around 0.7800 as the US Dollar trades calmly.
  • US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran for an indefinite period.
  • Fed’s Warsh prioritizes a smaller balance sheet while testifying in his confirmation hearing.

The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7800 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair consolidates as investors await remarks from Iran regarding the announcement of the ceasefire extension by the United States (US).

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Tuesday’s gains around 98.40.

Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire for an indefinite period, through a post on Truth Socia, stating that the military department will hold their attacks on Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal.

Meanwhile, the US blockade on Iranian sea ports continues, which is one of the key reasons highlighted by Iran for not agreeing to sit down again with Washington for the resumption of peace talks. Earlier in the day, Iran has warned a powerful attack if the US continues the blockade.

On the domestic front, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh has stated in his confirmation hearing that he will prioritize “smaller balance sheet”, which would mean “rates could be lower, inflation get better, economy stronger”.