Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP keeps hovering around 0.8650, unfazed by UK consumption data

  • The Euro remains practically flat around 0.8650, following UK Retail Sales data.
  • Markets pay little attention to February’s UK consumption figures, as they predate Iran’s war.
  • Inflation in Spain accelerated in March to its highest level since 2024.

The Euro (EUR) keeps trading sideways against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, oscillating within a tight range around the 0.8650 level for the fourth consecutive day, on track for a 0.25% weekly decline. The stronger-than-expected UK  Retail Sales figures released earlier on the day have failed to provide any significant support to the Sterling.

Data released by National Statistics earlier on Friday revealed that retail consumption fell for the first time in the last three months in February, by 0.4%, following a 2% increase in January. The market consensus had anticipated a sharper, 0.8% decline.

Excluding fuel, sales of all other items have shown a similar pattern, falling 0.4% on the month after a 2.2% gain in January, yet remaining above the -0.8% market consensus. Year on year, Retail Sales growth eased to 2.5%, from an upwardly revised 4.8% growth in the previous month, while the Core Retail Sales slowed down to 3.4% from 5.9% in January.

These figures have had a limited impact on the market as they predate the start of the war in Iran. Data from March, which will show the impact of a sharp decline in consumer confidence and a sharp uptick in prices due to the surge in Oil prices, is likely to have more relevance.

The Euro, on the other hand, remains on its back foot, also weighed by the pressure of higher Oil prices in the Eurozone economy. Spain’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year in March, its highest level in 14 months, adding pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in April.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Snaps three-day losing streak as market sentiment improves

  • GBP/USD rises to near 1.3345 as market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
  • US President Trump extended the postponement of scheduled military action on Iran’s power plants.
  • Investors await UK Retail Sales data for February.

The GBP/USD pair snaps its three-day losing streak on Friday, trading 0.1% higher to near 1.3345 during the Asian trading session. The Cable rises as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s extended pause on scheduled attacks on Iranian power plants until April 6, which boosts hopes of de-escalation in conflicts in the Middle East.

As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.3% higher to near 6,500, indicating an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near a three-day high of around 100.00.

Late Thursday, US President Trump said through a post on Truth.Social, “I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” and expressed confidence that talks with Iran regarding an end to the Middle East war are going well.

In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for February, which will be published at 07:00 GMT. Month-on-month Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have declined 0.8% after a 1.8% growth seen in January. On an annualized basis, the consumer spending measure is expected to have risen at a moderate pace of 2.1% against the previous reading of 4.5%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around1.3345 as of writing. The near-term bias is bearish as recent lower highs reinforce the downside tone. The spot trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has flattened after a prior decline and now caps the upside around 1.34.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, signaling a pause in the bearish momentum, while the bearish bias remains intact.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 1.3400, followed by the March 23 high around 1.3480, where recent supply halted rebounds. A daily close above that level would ease the bearish pressure and open the way toward the mid-1.35 region. On the downside, immediate support aligns with Monday’s low at 1.3257, with a break exposing the next bearish target at 1.3220. A drop through 1.3220 would confirm a stronger downward extension toward the 1.31 area.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP holds above 0.8650 as hawkish ECB comments support the Euro

  • The Euro regains ground against the Pound Sterling on Thursday, with the cross returning to the upper range of the 0.8600s.
  • EUR/GBP edges up following hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel.
  • From a wider perspective, the cross remains sideways, with both currencies weighed by risk aversion.

The Euro (EUR) edges up slightly against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, yet moving within previous ranges, following downbeat German consumer confidence figures and hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

Nagel said earlier on Thursday that an interest rate hike in April will be an option at next month’s ECB meeting “if the war in the Middle East raises the spectre of an inflation surge in the Eurozone”.

These comments follow Wednesday’s remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who affirmed that the central bank will have to respond “in a forceful pr persistent way” if consumer inflation looks set to be well above the bank’s 2% target. 

Higher borrowing costs might derail recovery

The prospect of higher interest rates amid sluggish economic growth in the region’s leading economies is keeping investors wary, weighing on demand for the common currency.

On Thursday, the German GfK Index showed that consumer confidence is expected to plunge to -28 in April from -24.8 in March. Data from Wednesday showed that the German IFO Business Climate deteriorated too, albeit less than expected, while the PMI survey underscored that the rise in energy prices could easily derail a tame economic recovery.

The Pound Sterling (GBP), however, is not faring much better, which keeps the cross in a choppy, sideways trading cycle. UK inflation data revealed that consumer prices remained at 3%, even before the start of the war, which has boosted market expectations that the Bank of England will be forced to hike rates more than once this year.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP moves little as uncertainty prevails over US-Iran peace talks

  • GBP/USD steadies as the US Dollar holds firm amid ongoing uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war.
  • Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington.
  • UOB economist highlighted a hawkish BoE shift, holding the Bank Rate at 3.75% after a 9–0 vote.

GBP/USD remains flat after two days of losses, hovering around 1.3360 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The pair remains steady as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with traders closely tracking developments in the Middle East amid persistent uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war.

The White House stated that talks are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan to resolve the conflict. Senior Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but have signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington. However, Tehran indicated it would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead putting forward a five-point plan that includes sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) may find support from easing oil prices amid hopes of de-escalating Middle East tensions. UK inflation data for February showed headline CPI steady at 3%, in line with expectations, while core CPI edged higher to 3.2%, surpassing the 3.1% forecast. However, these pre-conflict figures had a limited impact on market sentiment.

UOB economist Lee Sue Ann pointed to a hawkish shift by the Bank of England (BoE), with the Bank Rate held at 3.75% following a unanimous 9–0 vote. The report removes earlier expectations for three rate cuts in 2026, now projecting the GBP Repo Rate to remain at 3.75% through the fourth quarter of 2026 as inflation risks persist.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/JPY holds above 213.00, eyes monthly high amid bearish JPY sentiment

  • GBP/JPY bulls move to the sidelines as intervention fears offer some support to the JPY.
  • Economic concerns stemming from the Iran war might cap any meaningful JPY move up.
  • The BoE’s hawkish outlook underpins the GBP and backs the case for some upside for the pair.

The GBP/JPY cross holds steady above the 213.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to a one-month peak, retested earlier this week. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

Investors remain worried that the war-driven surge in energy prices would weigh on Japan’s economic outlook and drive up inflationary pressures. This increases the risk of a “stagflationary” environment and might complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalization efforts. The outlook, in turn, has been a key factor behind the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) recent underperformance and continues to act as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that he expects underlying inflation to accelerate moderately and added that he will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably achieve the inflation target, accompanied by wage gains. The JPY fails to gain any respite from Ueda’s hawkish comments amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict, though bears seem hesitant on the back of rising intervention fears.

In fact, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier this week that the government might consider taking measures on all fronts in foreign exchange (FX) volatility. Apart from this, the lack of any meaningful buying interest around the British Pound (GBP), amid a bullish US Dollar (USD), contributes to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the GBP/JPY cross.

That said, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday reaffirmed the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish tilt and could act as a tailwind for the GBP. In fact, the BoE signaled last week a potential interest rate hike as early as April amid inflation fears. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the JPY, validates the near-term positive outlook and backs the case for an extension of over a one-month-old uptrend.

Japanese Yen Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD2.00%0.94%2.09%1.02%2.29%3.09%2.29%
EUR-2.00%-1.04%0.07%-0.94%0.28%1.05%0.29%
GBP-0.94%1.04%1.15%0.09%1.34%2.12%1.33%
JPY-2.09%-0.07%-1.15%-1.05%0.19%0.97%0.19%
CAD-1.02%0.94%-0.09%1.05%1.25%2.04%1.25%
AUD-2.29%-0.28%-1.34%-0.19%-1.25%0.79%0.00%
NZD-3.09%-1.05%-2.12%-0.97%-2.04%-0.79%-0.78%
CHF-2.29%-0.29%-1.33%-0.19%-1.25%-0.01%0.78%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Currency Talk – GBP/AUD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

GBPAUD
Since last November, the GBPAUD currency pair has been trading in a downtrend; however, in mid-March, the upper boundary of the broad 1:1 pattern was broken at the 1.8990 level, which may indicate a shift in sentiment toward an uptrend. Currently, the 1.8975 level should be considered key short-term support, as it marks the lower boundary of the local 1:1 bullish pattern. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as this level holds, further expansion of the upward movement is possible. Conversely, a drop back below 1.8990 could signal a resumption of the downward trend.

GBPAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

AUDNZD
The AUDNZD exchange rate has been in an uptrend since April of last year. Due to the prolonged period without a major correction, the recent downward move is similar in magnitude to previous corrections, allowing us to identify support at the 1.1730 level, where the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as this level holds, the uptrend remains in effect.

AUDNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

EURAUD
Since last October, the EURAUD pair has been trading in a downtrend; however, in recent days, the 1.6545 level has been broken, which may suggest the start of an upward correction or even a trend reversal. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains above this level, the base case scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, a return below 1.6545, as well as a break below the 1.6506 level—where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 uptrend pattern lies—could signal a return to the downtrend. For now, the base case remains an upward correction.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Pound Sterling weakens as Middle East tensions escalate

  • GBP/USD depreciates amid rising Middle East conflict. 
  • Gulf states are near direct involvement in the Iran conflict, with Saudi Arabia signaling a potential military shift. 
  • Traders await Tuesday’s flash S&P Global PMI data for March from both economies.

The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading near 1.3400 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive pair weakens amid rising risk aversion as US-aligned Gulf states move closer to direct involvement in the Iran conflict, with Saudi Arabia signaling a potential military shift, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Israel launched its latest attack on Iran despite US President Donald Trump signaling a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure after what he described as productive talks with Tehran. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied any engagement with Washington. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also said on Monday that no negotiations had taken place with the US. Meanwhile, senior military adviser Mohsen Rezaei stated that the conflict would persist until Iran receives full compensation for the damage incurred.

Traders await Tuesday’s flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March headlines the calendar on both sides of the pair. UK manufacturing PMI is expected at 51.1, down from 51.7, with services forecast at 53.0 versus 53.9 previously; any further softening would test the hawkish BoE repricing.

The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates steady at 3.75% at its March meeting on Thursday, as widely expected. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the Middle East conflict will cause a “shock to the economy” and push up inflation in the near term, adding that restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is key to addressing rising energy prices.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.21%0.24%0.14%0.18%0.55%0.36%0.20%
EUR-0.21%0.00%-0.07%-0.03%0.34%0.14%-0.01%
GBP-0.24%-0.00%-0.06%-0.04%0.34%0.14%-0.01%
JPY-0.14%0.07%0.06%0.05%0.42%0.22%0.07%
CAD-0.18%0.03%0.04%-0.05%0.37%0.17%0.03%
AUD-0.55%-0.34%-0.34%-0.42%-0.37%-0.19%-0.37%
NZD-0.36%-0.14%-0.14%-0.22%-0.17%0.19%-0.15%
CHF-0.20%0.00%0.01%-0.07%-0.03%0.37%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).