USD/INR edges lower at open ahead of Trump’s Iran deadline

April 7, 2026
  • The Indian Rupee trades marginally higher against the US Dollar in the opening trade.
  • Investors await Iran’s final decision on Trump’s deadline at 08:00 PM ET, 05:30 AM IST on Wednesday.
  • The RBI is expected to maintain the status quo on Wednesday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair edges down to near 93.00, while it is expected to remain range bound as investors stay on sidelines ahead of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran either to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face brutal consequences whose deadline is Tuesday, April 7, 08:00 PM Eastern Time (ET), which will be 05:30 AM IST on Wednesday.

Trump threatens hell if Iran misses deadline

Over the weekend, US President Trump warned, through a post on Truth.Social, that Washington will bomb Iranian power plants and bridges, if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.

Meanwhile, comments from Iran signal that it won’t back down, as it threatened reciprocal attacks on the regional US infrastructure and its allies. An advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that “Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age”.

Market participants worry that a fresh escalation in the ongoing war would boost oil prices, a scenario that is unfavorable for the Indian Rupee, being the currency of a nation that caters its 88%-89% of its domestic energy needs through oil imports.

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have dampened the interest of foreign investors in the Indian stock market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to dump their stake in the Indian equity market, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 26,429.45 crore in the three trading days of April gone by.

Investors await RBI’s policy decision and FOMC minutes

On the domestic front, the next major trigger for the Indian Rupee will be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The RBI is expected to leave its Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as higher energy prices have prompted inflation expectations globally.

As the RBI is highly anticipated to maintain the status quo, investors will pay close attention to comments from the Indian central bank regarding the outlook of inflation, economic growth and key borrowing rates.

In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting will be published on late Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and stated that “higher energy prices will push up inflation in the near term”.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR turns range bound as RSI sifts into 40.00-60.00 zone

USD/INR edges down to near 93.00 in the opening trade on Tuesday. The near-term bias appears neutral as the pair trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 92.95, capping rebounds. The overall trend remains bullish as the higher highs and higher lows structure has not broken yet.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the bullish territory above 60.00, signifying that momentum has cooled down, but the bullish bias remains intact.

Initial support emerges at the March 9 high of 92.35, with a daily close below this level opening the room toward the March 5 low of 91.35. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the April 2 high of 93.66; a break above that level would reassert the bullish trend, which will improve the odds of the price reclaiming the all-time high of 95.22.

Rupee Falls on Outflows, Trump Speech

April 2, 2026

The Indian rupee edged down to around 93.2 per dollar, extending gains for another session amid persistent capital outflows and heightened geopolitical tensions. The currency has been under pressure from spillovers of the Iran war, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to step up measures against arbitrage and forward contract manipulation.

After an earlier crackdown on banks failed to ease volatility, corporates were barred from rebooking cancelled foreign exchange contracts, and derivative trades with related parties were restricted. Analysts noted that while these measures aim to curb speculative activity, the rupee remains vulnerable as oil prices stay elevated and capital inflows remain limited. Adding to the downward pressure, President Donald Trump’s 20-minute prime-time address said the US is “very close” to completing its military objectives in Iran, while warning of potential escalation.

USD/INR tumbles at open as Middle East war de-escalates

April 1, 2026
  • The Indian Rupee recovers strongly against the US Dollar as both the US and Iran signal readiness to end the war.
  • Iran wants guarantees of no repetitive aggression from the US in return for peace.
  • FIIs continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after a holiday due to the Shri Mahavir Jayanti the previous day. The USD/INR pair slumps to near 93.65 from the all-time high of 95.22 posted on Monday, as a significant de-escalation in the Middle East war, following comments from both the United States (US) and Iran signaling their willingness to end the war, has improved the appeal of risk-sensitive assets.

US and Iran show readiness to end Middle East war

On Tuesday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Union (EU) Council President António Costa that his country is ready to end the war with the US, but it needs certain guarantees especially no repetition of aggression, Iranian state news agency reported.

These comments from Iran came after US President Donald Trump announced that Washington is willing to end the war with Iran despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, a channel to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission beyond his timeline of four to six weeks, Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.

Meaningful signs of US-Iran war de-escalation have diminished demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near Tuesday’s low around 99.85. The USD Index fell almost 0.8% on Tuesday after posting a fresh 10-month high at around 100.65.

FIIs continue to pare stake in Indian stock market

Currencies from economies like India, which are in their developing stage, rely heavily on foreign investments for a strong financial system. The consistent outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market has battered the Indian Rupee significantly in the past months.

In March, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded their stake worth Rs. 1,22,539.89 crore from the Indian stock market due to the war in the Middle East, assuming that higher oil prices in the wake of the war would be a drag on Nifty 50 Q4FY2025-26 earnings.

US data awaited

On Wednesday, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March, and Retail Sales data for February, which will be published in the North American session. Economists expect US private sector to have created 40K fresh jobs, lower than 63K in February.

The ISM is expected to report that the Manufacturing PMI will tick higher to 52.5 from the previous reading of 52.4. US Retail Sales are estimated to have grown 0.5% after declining 0.2% in January.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR retraces from all-time highs of 95.22

USD/INR corrects sharply from the all-time high of 95.22 to near 93.65 in the opening session on Wednesday. However, the continuation of higher highs and higher lows from the 90s area suggests that the bullish trend is bullish. The ascending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 93.13 confirms a strong bullish tone.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60.00 after remaining inside the 60.00-80.00 zone for a longer period, indicating the suspension of the bullish momentum with the upside bias remaining intact.

Initial support emerges at 20-day EMA, which is around 93.13, followed by previous peak levels in the 92.00-92.35 range. A downside break below the range would dent the overall bullish structure and open the way towards the March 5 low of 91.35. On the upside, the all-time high of 95.22 will be the major barrier for the spot price. A decisive break above the same would boost the odds of an extension of the advance toward 96.00.