The Indian rupee hovered around 96.2 per dollar, remaining under pressure after reaching eight-week lows as sentiment weakened on rising crude oil prices. Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing India’s oil import bill. The rupee has fallen about 1.7% so far this month, moving closer to its record low reached in May. Meanwhile, the positive sentiment from the Reserve Bank of India’s recent measures to attract dollar inflows has largely faded, prompting traders to resume buying dollars on dips in anticipation of further rupee weakness. Additional pressure came from more than $14 billion in overseas investment announcements by Indian companies early in the fiscal year, boosting demand for foreign currency, while foreign portfolio outflows and higher oil imports continued to weigh on the rupee and India’s foreign exchange reserves.
New Zealand Dollar Trades Near 6-Week High
The New Zealand dollar hovered near a six-week high at around $0.583, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue tightening monetary policy, alongside broad weakness in the US dollar. Markets widely expect the RBNZ to deliver another rate hike in September, with the OCR seen reaching at least 3.0% by the end of the year. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said earlier this week that renewed conflict in the Middle East could fuel inflationary pressures, reinforcing the case for further policy tightening following last week’s first rate increase in more than three years. Meanwhile, the greenback hovered near a one-month low as investors scaled back bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike after softer-than-expected inflation data. However, escalating geopolitical tensions remain a downside risk for the New Zealand dollar, as heightened uncertainty could weaken global risk appetite and weigh on risk-sensitive currencies such as the kiwi.
South Korean Won Rises to Over 2-Month High
The South Korean won strengthened to around 1,485 per dollar, advancing for a fifth straight session and reaching its highest level since mid-May, after the Bank of Korea raised interest rates. The central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, as widely expected, marking its first increase since early 2023 as policymakers sought to curb persistent inflation and support the currency following months of depreciation. The decision marked the start of a new tightening cycle, with investors assessing whether policymakers will deliver further rate increases if inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, gains in the won were limited as fresh US strikes on Iran boosted demand for the safe-haven US dollar and heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Broader market sentiment also remained fragile as renewed volatility in technology shares weighed on risk appetite.
Chart of the Day – What is next for July’s strongest currency?
The geopolitically turbulent start of July has brought a strengthening of commodity currencies (among them, the Norwegian krone). However, the top of the G10 list is occupied by the New Zealand dollar, which may come as a surprise to some. The currency has strengthened by nearly 2.5% against the dollar over the past two weeks.
What lies behind such a significant move?
Fundamental to this, as is often the case, were the actions of the central bank. On 8 July, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the main interest rate by 25 bps, lifting it to 2.5%. This was the first rate hike in New Zealand in over three years. The key, however, was not just the decision to raise rates (which was largely priced in by markets) but the communication that accompanied it.
- The decision was made unanimously by the committee. At the previous meeting in May, there was a 3-3 split in votes, and the balance was only tipped by the new governor, Anna Breman.
- The RBNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, drew clear attention to pro-inflationary risks resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
- The Bank stated in its communiqué that “while further interest rate hikes seem likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.”
- RBNZ research suggests that after a long period of elevated inflation, New Zealand companies are significantly more inclined to immediately pass costs on to consumers and less willing to lower prices when costs fall.
As a result, the market’s baseline scenario is another hike in September and another upward move in October or December. This would bring the main interest rate (cash rate) to 3%, which the bank currently defines as the neutral level.
What lies ahead? There is still plenty of time until September.
- In the meantime, the Q2 inflation report will be published. The consensus assumes a significant increase in the headline indicator, most likely to around 4%.
- After the manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since 2021 (59.7), data on production could prove particularly interesting.
Data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which absorbs nearly 25% of the country’s total exports (mainly dairy, meat, wood, and fruit), will also be significant.
- Stronger economic data from the Middle Kingdom usually means greater demand for products imported from New Zealand.
- In this context, the readings published today are not particularly optimistic. GDP dynamics fell to the lowest level since 2022 (+4.3% year-on-year).
- The Asian giant is burdened by a property market crisis, weak domestic demand, and a decline in investment (down 5.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year).
The strength of the dollar itself, which is awaiting further news from the geopolitical front and the September FOMC decision, could, of course, also prove key.
- The market does not really expect a hike, so the focus will be on communication. Kevin Warsh remains enigmatic, so upcoming conferences may attract particular attention.
Technical Analysis Figure 1: NZDUSD [D1] (08.07.2025 – 15.07.2026)
Source: xStation, 15.07.2026 The NZDUSD pair has broken out of the downtrend and is currently testing key support levels. The price has breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement and is hovering around the 150-day moving average. The upward momentum is also suggested by the MACD indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 63.4, which confirms a clear advantage for market bulls, while at the same time indicating that the market is not yet in the extreme overbought zone (above 70).
AUD/JPY Price Gains traction above 113.00, bullish trend stays firm above 100-day SMA
- AUD/JPY gains ground to near 113.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA, with RSI holding above the midline.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 113.55; the initial support level is seen at 112.65.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reports regarding the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government is considering nudging the world’s largest pension fund to buy domestic financial assets to support the currency, though concrete plans have yet to materialize. However, traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities, which might cap the upside for the cross.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a near-term bullish bias as price extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.23 sits in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, suggesting that buying pressure remains constructive but not overstretched.
On the topside, the next notable resistance is the upper Bollinger band, emerging around 113.55, where the current advance could start to face profit-taking. The next hurdle to watch is the May 14 high of 114.66. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger midline near 112.35, while deeper pullbacks would likely be cushioned by the lower Bollinger band around 111.15.
EUR/USD Price – Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle
- EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a softer US Dollar.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and support the USD.
- The technical setup also warrants some caution before placing bullish bets on the pair.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal resistance, though it remains confined within a multi-week-old range. Spot prices trade around the 1.1435-1.1440 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, up for the second straight day amid modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, forced traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, which keeps the USD bulls depressed and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated crude oil prices and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s price stability commitment, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the currency pair.
The EUR/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance and build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Adding to this, momentum indicators hint at scope for corrective upticks rather than a clear trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests improving but still moderate bullish momentum.
This further warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the year-to-date low touched in June. The subsequent resistance below the 23.6% Fibo. aligns at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near 1.1490, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.1523 and the 50.0% level around 1.1585 acting as the next relevant hurdles.
On the downside, the main structural support emerges at the Fibonacci anchor close to 1.1323, and a clear break under this floor would likely reinforce the broader bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.11% | 0.02% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.11% | 0.03% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.11% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Euro edges higher against British Pound as oil surge lifts ECB rate expectations
- EUR/GBP strengthens to around 0.8535 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- US carries out more strikes on Iran.
- Traders boosted wagers on faster BoE and ECB rate hikes after rising oil prices.
The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8535 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders ramp up bets on the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes as oil price surge reignites inflation fears. ECB policymakers Fabio Panetta and Joachim Nagel are set to speak later in the day.
US President Donald Trump’s reimposition of a blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and payment demand for all other cargo have raised oil-driven inflation concerns. On Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it launched further attacks on Iran, hitting dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian coastal areas.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it had targeted what it described as command-and-control, logistics, fuel and military equipment facilities belonging to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, per Reuters.
Traders are now fully pricing a 25 basis points (bps) BOE hike by September, followed by another before year-end. They also expect the ECB to raise rates by a quarter-point in September, with another hike by year-end all but certain, according to Bloomberg.
ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains strictly data-dependent. The official policy account explicitly noted that the June hike was neither a guaranteed sequence nor a guaranteed one-off move. On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that the central bank prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary.
British Pound advances as US Dollar remains subdued following inflation data
- GBP/USD rises as the US Dollar sustains losses from soft inflation data, raising expectations for a less hawkish Fed.
- US June CPI inflation slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from May’s 4.2%, comfortably beating the market consensus of 3.8%.
- The British Pound gains as energy-driven inflation worries push investors to price in aggressive BoE rate hikes.
GBP/USD rises for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses following softer-than-expected US inflation data, fueling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a less hawkish monetary stance.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in June, dropping from a three-year high of 4.2% in May and coming in well below the market consensus of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI actually declined by 0.4% in June, a notable shift from the 0.5% increase recorded in May.
However, the downside of the Greenback could be restrained amid rising safe-haven demand following renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The renewed Hormuz tensions drive up oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and prolonging higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
The British Pound (GBP) strengthens as Middle East tensions fuel inflation worries from rising energy prices, prompting investors to price in aggressive Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes. Markets now heavily anticipate two increases in 2026, with a September hike fully priced in.
