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Swiss Franc weakens as renewed US-Iran tensions support the US Dollar

  • USD/CHF gains ground as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep the US Dollar supported.
  • Iran warns it “will respond,” accusing the United States of violating the ceasefire in the Hormozgan region.
  • Markets continue to price in higher-for-longer Federal Reserve expectations amid elevated Oil prices.

USD/CHF trades with a mild positive bias on Tuesday as renewed military escalation between the United States (US) and Iran supports the US Dollar (USD), pressuring the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7850, up 0.30% on the day and snapping a four-day losing streak.

American forces carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran on Monday, targeting missile facilities and Iranian boats allegedly attempting to deploy naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone after it entered Iranian airspace.

In a statement shared by Iran’s IRIB broadcaster, Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of violating the ceasefire in the Hormozgan region and warned that Tehran “will respond and will not hesitate to defend itself.”

Despite the renewed military escalation, diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran continue. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that negotiations over a potential deal with Iran could “take a few days,” while stressing that the Strait of Hormuz “has to be open” and “will be open one way or another.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in global Oil prices and fueling inflation concerns worldwide. Inflation in the United States has accelerated sharply since the war began, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer, with traders increasingly pricing in the possibility of another rate hike by the end of the year.

In Switzerland, inflation rose to its highest level in 16 months in April, though it remains within the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0%-2% target range. The SNB is expected to maintain its current policy stance, as the inflationary impact from higher Energy prices has been partly offset by the strength of the Swiss Franc, which helps make US Dollar-denominated commodities such as Oil cheaper in local currency terms.

Although SNB Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said last week that the central bank maintains an “elevated willingness” to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary.

On the data front, traders will closely monitor the US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence report later on Tuesday, followed by Switzerland’s ZEW Survey – Expectations data for May on Wednesday and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report on Thursday.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.24%0.19%0.13%0.07%0.52%0.28%
EUR-0.09%0.19%0.11%0.07%0.01%0.46%0.20%
GBP-0.24%-0.19%-0.09%-0.12%-0.17%0.28%0.03%
JPY-0.19%-0.11%0.09%-0.05%-0.09%0.33%0.12%
CAD-0.13%-0.07%0.12%0.05%-0.03%0.41%0.16%
AUD-0.07%-0.01%0.17%0.09%0.03%0.44%0.19%
NZD-0.52%-0.46%-0.28%-0.33%-0.41%-0.44%-0.24%
CHF-0.28%-0.20%-0.03%-0.12%-0.16%-0.19%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ stance supports against US Dollar – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver a hawkish hold, prioritising above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment. He notes that OIS markets price a 51.5% chance of a July hike, while DBS does not rule out an early move at the May meeting, which could help lift NZD/USD back toward the upper half of its 0.57–0.61 trading range.

RBNZ stance underpins New Zealand Dollar

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to deliver a hawkish hold during its monetary policy meeting on May 27.”

“However, the RBNZ is likely to prioritise above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment.”

“Despite the consensus for the Official Cash Rate to stay unchanged at 2.25%, the OIS market is pricing a 51.5% chance of a 25-bps hike at the July 8 meeting.”

“We cannot rule out the RBNZ surprising with an “early” hike tomorrow.”

“Hence, NZD/USD has the potential to return to the upper half of this year’s trading range of 0.57-0.61, especially if the USD sheds its haven status amid any US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”

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EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains on the defensive with 0.8640 capping gains

  • EUR/GBP bounces up from lows sub 0.8620, but remains capped below 0.8640.
  • Hawkish comments by ECB’s Lane have failed to support the Euro.
  • In the UK, fading expectations of BoE hikes are weighing on GBP rallies.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming losses after depreciating more than 1% in a bit more than a week. Euro bulls, however, remain capped below the 0.8640 area so far, which leaves the pair trading within Monday’s range, and keeps its broader bearish trend intact.

Hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philippe Lane, who endorsed market expectations of upcoming rate hikes earlier on Tuesday, have failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. 

The Pound, on the other hand, remains fairly resilient to the UK’s uncertain political scenario, although the low yield on UK Gilts amid fading hopes of Bank of England (BoE) monetary tightening, as well as a somewhat more cautious market, are keeping Cable’s upside attempts limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bears remain in control

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8634, with the near-term bearish structure still in place and momentum indicators pointing to moderate bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced up from oversold levels, but remains within negative territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has inched back into positive territory, yet hints at a consolidative, neutral bias, rather than at a trend shift.

Initial resistance lies at a previous support in the 0.8640 area (May 21 low). Further up, the May 20 and May 19 highs, near 0.8665, and the 0.8685 area, respectively, emerge as the next bullish targets.

On the downside, a break below 2026 lows between 0.8605 and 0.8615 would bring the August 2025 low, at the 0.8600 area, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the May selloff, at 0.8587, into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%0.19%0.18%0.03%0.12%0.47%0.28%
EUR-0.05%0.16%0.13%-0.00%0.10%0.44%0.22%
GBP-0.19%-0.16%-0.02%-0.16%-0.06%0.28%0.08%
JPY-0.18%-0.13%0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.29%0.12%
CAD-0.03%0.00%0.16%0.14%0.12%0.46%0.25%
AUD-0.12%-0.10%0.06%0.03%-0.12%0.35%0.14%
NZD-0.47%-0.44%-0.28%-0.29%-0.46%-0.35%-0.21%
CHF-0.28%-0.22%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%-0.14%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Indian Rupee: Gradual stabilisation prospects after oil shock – ING

ING’s Deepali Bhargava argues that India’s fuel subsidies and diversified energy sourcing have contained the inflation and growth impact of higher oil prices, but shifted pressure onto the Indian Rupee (INR). She sees weak capital inflows as the key drag, while improved Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) metrics and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves should help USD/INR stabilise later in 2026.

Rupee strain as flows stay weak

“India’s fuel subsidies are cushioning inflation for now, and diversified energy sourcing has eased supply pressures. But the strain has shifted to the rupee. Its recent slide reflects deeper structural weaknesses, especially chronically soft capital inflows. Unless those inflows recover, the rupee’s vulnerability is likely to persist”

“The biggest impact of higher global oil prices has been on the currency. This shift is less about an exceptionally large current account deficit and more about flows. While India’s external position is softening, it is far from crisis territory. We expect the current account deficit to widen to around 2.1% of GDP in 2026, up from around 0.5% in 2025, largely due to higher oil prices. Even with Brent averaging $104/bbl in 3Q, our CAD [Current Account Deficit] forecast of around 2% of GDP remains well below levels seen during past stress episodes such as the taper tantrum in 2013, where the current account deficit averaged over 4% of GDP. Yet, the extent of INR depreciation has been unusually large, reflecting weak capital inflows rather than current account imbalances.”

“Since then, however, the adjustment has been swift. The CPI inflation rate has nearly halved to an average 2.5%. The REER has declined by over 12%, bringing it back to levels last seen around 2014. On a broader valuation lens, the INR now sits near the bottom of its six-year REER range, indicating that much of the earlier overvaluation has been unwound.”

“Overall, while near-term pressures persist, the adjustment is already well underway. We expect USD/INR to end the year at 95.50, with risks skewed more towards gradual stabilisation than a disorderly weakening.”

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Australian Dollar: Crowded longs face event risk – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that speculative positioning in the Australian Dollar is the largest long since 2013, built despite deteriorating domestic data and lower yields. He argues AUD could rally on a credible cease-fire extension but warns much good news is already priced, suggesting better relative value in AUD/NZD and potential NZD/USD shorts.

Australian Dollar positioning looks stretched

“The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD.”

“The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April.”

“5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month.”

“If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price.”

“AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year.”

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GBP retreats from monthly high vs JPY; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY attracts some sellers on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
  • Rebounding USD, delayed BoE rate hike bets, and UK political chaos undermine the GBP.
  • Hawkish comments from BoJ’s Himino support the JPY and contribute to the modest fall.

The GBP/JPY cross edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong gains to the 214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and currently trade around the 214.35 area, down just over 0.10% for the day.

A combination of factors exert some downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP), which, in turn, fails to assists the GBP/JPY cross to build on the recent move up witnessed over the past week or so. Investors pushed back their expectation for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April, from 3.3% in the previous month. Apart from this, the UK political chaos, amid growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, and the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying further undermine the GBP.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws some support from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo, saying that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. This further contributes to the mildly offered tone surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. The JPY bulls, however, seem hesitant on the back of concerns that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains due to continued disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the currency pair and warrants some caution before positioning for any further intraday fall.

There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Tuesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/JPY pair’s one-week-old move up has run out of steam and positioning for any meaningful decline. Even from a technical perspective, the recent goodish rebound from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support near the 211.00 mark favors bullish traders and backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.08%0.11%0.02%0.04%0.03%0.26%0.05%
EUR-0.08%0.07%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.21%-0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.07%-0.11%-0.09%-0.07%0.13%-0.07%
JPY-0.02%0.06%0.11%0.03%0.04%0.24%0.05%
CAD-0.04%0.02%0.09%-0.03%0.02%0.24%0.02%
AUD-0.03%0.02%0.07%-0.04%-0.02%0.22%-0.00%
NZD-0.26%-0.21%-0.13%-0.24%-0.24%-0.22%-0.22%
CHF-0.05%0.03%0.07%-0.05%-0.02%0.00%0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Hovers around 185.00, descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY hovers near the upper boundary of the channel around 185.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 49.05 near neutral, signaling that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.

EUR/JPY inches lower after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bias as it trades above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered just below 185.00 and suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.05 sits near neutral, hinting that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings but without signalling outright downside pressure while price stays supported by these short- and medium-term EMAs.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A sustained break above the channel would cause an emergence of a bullish bias.

Further advances above the channel would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.86, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 184.84. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.08%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.23%0.04%
EUR-0.06%0.06%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.19%-0.02%
GBP-0.08%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.07%0.15%-0.05%
JPY0.00%0.06%0.09%0.02%0.03%0.22%0.05%
CAD-0.03%0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.01%0.22%0.02%
AUD-0.00%0.02%0.07%-0.03%-0.01%0.21%0.01%
NZD-0.23%-0.19%-0.15%-0.22%-0.22%-0.21%-0.20%
CHF-0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.02%-0.01%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Near-term tone remains bearish as 20-day EMA slopes downwards

  • EUR/USD ticks lower to near 1.1633 as US forces strike at Iranian missile launcher sites.
  • The US military clarified that strikes were in “self-defense” and not meant to dismiss the ceasefire with Iran.
  • US President Trump said that negotiations with Iran are proceeding nicely.

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1633 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) attacks some bids due to fears that the United States (US)-Iran negotiations could face a setback.

According to a spokesperson from the US Central Command, US forces ‌conducted strikes in southern Iran on Monday, which were aimed at missile launch sites and Iranian vessels aiming to deploy mines.

However, the US military has clarified that the nature of the strikes was “defensive” and were not meant to end the ceasefire with Tehran.

The event has resulted in a slight recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and a decent one in oil prices. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.05.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has stated that negotiations with Iran to end the conflict are “proceeding nicely”, Bloomberg reported.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.1635, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1667.

The pair has been grinding lower from early-month highs, and the subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45.1 hints at fading bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions, suggesting sellers retain the initiative while buyers remain cautious.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.1667, and a daily close above this dynamic barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way to a more meaningful recovery towards 1.1700. On the downside, the pair could resume its downside journey if it drops below the May 21 low of 1.1576. Key support area will be 1.1500.