The Japanese yen hovered around 159.6 per dollar in holiday trading on Wednesday, lingering near the critical 160 threshold even after the Bank of Japan delivered a hawkish hold this week. On Tuesday, the BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected, while raising its inflation outlook and lowering its growth forecast for FY2026 to reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Notably, three of the nine policy board members supported a rate hike, underscoring growing concern over inflationary pressures tied to the Iran war. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to a gradual tightening trajectory, signaling that interest rates could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the yen.
New Zealand Dollar Drops for 2nd Day
The New Zealand dollar fell for a second straight session on Wednesday to $0.585, as investors digested comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman. Breman said first-quarter measures of core inflation remained stable within the central bank’s 1-3% target range, while emphasizing that policymakers remain focused on balancing inflation control ?while supporting an economic recovery. She also stressed that the RBNZ is prepared to act decisively and in a timely manner should short-term price pressures begin to feed into more persistent inflation. Markets are currently pricing in a rate hike as early as May. However, some caution remains, as the Middle East conflict threatens to derail the country’s fragile economic recovery. Externally, attention is fixed on the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome due later today, with the bank widely expected to stand pat. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting President Trump’s response to Iran’s new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Offshore Yuan Remains Near 2023 Peak Levels
The offshore yuan traded around 6.83 per dollar on Wednesday, remaining near a recent more than three-year high, as it heads into a period of expected seasonal weakness that may arrive earlier than usual this summer. Chinese firms are accelerating foreign exchange hedging ahead of a record wave of dividend payments scheduled for June through August, with mainland companies listed in Hong Kong expected to distribute nearly $70 billion in payouts. Instead of waiting closer to payout dates, many are locking in rates early due to lower cost of currency purchases and forward rates are cheaper than the spot market. Pressure on the yuan comes from renewed US–China tensions, including Washington’s sanctions on a major refiner and warnings of possible secondary sanctions on banks. Meanwhile, China’s blocking of Meta’s acquisition of AI startup Manus, along with stricter export compliance and supply chain rules, has further contributed to a more cautious sentiment for the yuan.
EUR/USD – Likely find direction after Fed’s policy announcement
- EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1700 ahead of the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcement.
- Both the Fed and the ECB will likely maintain the status quo.
- The German HICP is estimated to have grown at a stronger pace of 3% YoY in April.
The EUR/USD pair consolidates around 1.1700, inside Tuesday’s trading range, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair has remained broadly sideways, with investors awaiting monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels, and warn of upside inflation risks amid elevated energy prices due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors will pay close attention to commentaries from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde to get cues about whether their respective central banks are discussing the need to tighten monetary conditions in the near term.
Ahead of the Fed-ECB policy announcement, investors will focus on the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that the German inflation accelerated to 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.7% in March.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1700 as of writing. The pair reflects a sideways trend as it remains sticky to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1698, but stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to sustain above 60.00 for longer, which indicates loss of upside momentum, but the upside bias remains intact.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% retracement around 1.1825, with further hurdles at 1.1938 and the cycle high near 1.2082. Looking down, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666 is the initial support; a break below that area would expose deeper supports at the 23.6% level near 1.1567 and the structural floor around 1.1408.
EUR/JPY remains subdued below 187.00 as risk-off sentiment weighs on Euro
- EUR/JPY falls as the Euro weakens amid rising risk aversion over uncertainty surrounding a potential Middle East ceasefire.
- US officials say President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
- JPY remains firm amid BoJ rate-hike expectations and speculation about intervention to limit further currency weakness.
EUR/JPY edges lower after three days of gains, trading around 186.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross declines as the Euro (EUR) struggles amid heightened risk aversion driven by uncertainty over a potential ceasefire in the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US officials said President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The report noted that Trump chose to keep pressuring Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports. Sources added that he viewed alternative options, such as resuming bombing or disengaging from the conflict, as riskier than maintaining the blockade.
Traders turn their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, where markets expect a “hawkish hold” as policymakers weigh potential rate hikes in June or July. Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate two 25 basis point hikes in the coming months, starting in June and followed by another in September, which would lift the deposit rate back to 2.50%.
The EUR/JPY cross remains under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays firm amid expectations of a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan, alongside speculation that authorities may intervene to curb further yen weakness.
However, the JPY has struggled to attract sustained buying interest despite the BoJ’s hawkish pause on Tuesday. Notably, three of the nine policy board members backed a rate hike, highlighting growing concern over inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to gradual policy tightening, signaling that interest rates could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the Yen.
Canadian Dollar consolidates vs USD as traders keenly await BoC/FOMC rate decisions
- USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on the overnight recovery gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
- The US-Iran statement benefits the safe-haven USD, while bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoC/FOMC decisions.
The USD/CAD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 1.3700 mark, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid a combination of diverging forces. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks continues to benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and supports spot prices. However, bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the currency pair.
Hopes for a revival of US-Iran peace talks receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy’s planned visit to Pakistan. Furthermore, media reports suggest that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s new proposal on resolving the war and reopening the strategic waterway, but would set aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and continues to benefit the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran’s restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to dismantle its entire nuclear program. This keeps Crude Oil prices elevated near the highest level in over two weeks and keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair.
Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of key central bank events. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its policy decision later during the North American session, and will be followed by the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants will look for fresh cues about the central banks’ future policy path, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and determine the next leg of a directional move.
GBP/USD – Hovers around nine-day EMA near 1.3500
- GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
- The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.
GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.
However, the GBP/USD pair maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.
The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.00% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85
Facts:
The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward
Recommendation:
Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90
Opinion:
Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.
