Forex - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger June 16, 2026 No Comments

Swiss Franc declines as market caution lifts US Dollar

USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar remains stronger amid market caution ahead of further US-Iran peace talk updates.
Traders price in the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.
Money markets expect the Swiss National Bank to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year.

USD/CHF gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7950 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady amid broad market caution. Investors remain on the defensive as they await further updates regarding Iran’s unresolved nuclear program.

Both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement; major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.

Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which could be attributed to the higher US inflation due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.

Sharp declines in oil prices have helped alleviate inflationary pressures, reducing expectations for further monetary tightening. Consequently, money markets are now pricing in no additional interest rate changes from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the remainder of the year.

This aligns with the latest data showing Swiss Producer and Import Prices fell 1.8% year-on-year in May. While this marks the softest pace of deflation in five months, easing from April’s 2.0% decline due to slower drops in import prices, the monthly figures caught markets off guard. On a month-over-month basis, the price index fell 0.4%, missing forecasts for a 0.4% increase and reversing April’s 0.8% gain.

Currency Hedger June 16, 2026 No Comments

Offshore Yuan Retreats from Multi-Year High

The offshore yuan slipped to around 6.76 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the previous session as investors weighed a mixed set of economic data from China. New home prices across 70 cities marked the 35th consecutive month of contraction and remaining at their steepest pace since May 2025, while fixed-asset investment declined more than market expectations in the January–May period. Moreover, retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, marking the first annual decline since December 2022. Providing some support, industrial output exceeded market expectations in May, accelerating from April’s near three-year low. In addition, the surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to a five-month low in May. Adding to the currency’s pullback, Allianz Global Investors scaled back some of its bullish yuan positions and shifted to a neutral stance, locking in gains after a rally that propelled the yuan to become Asia’s best-performing major currency this year.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts:

The price is near the lower boundary of a consolidation range between 0.886 and 0.861.
Upward corrections within the consolidation are breaking to increasingly lower levels, while at the same time testing resistance around 0.863.
The EMA100 has crossed the EMA200 from above.

Recommendation:

Short position (Sell) on EURGBP at the market price.

Target price (Take Profit; TP): 0.8400
Stop Loss (SL): 0.8817

EURGBP (D1)

Source: xStation5

OPINION :

The EURGBP rate is once again testing the lower boundary of the consolidation, which can also be treated as a developing 1:1 pattern, potentially ending with a downside breakout. The repeated defense of the ~0.86 level indicates the strength of this zone; however, increasingly weaker upward corrections within the consolidation reveal buyer weakness and point to the likely direction of further price movement.

Methodology and assumptions:

The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels.
The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels.
The protective stop-loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and with reference to a Fibonacci level.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

Swiss Franc edges higher on US–Iran peace deal

USD/CHF falls to around 0.7930 in Monday’s early European session.
US and Iran confirmed a ‘peace deal’ was reached, signing in Switzerland on Friday.
The Fed is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate steady as it remains in “wait-and-see” mode.

The USD/CHF pair slumps to near 0.7930, the lowest since June 5, during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after the US and Iran announced a framework deal for peace. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a “great deal” to end the war with Iran. Iran’s National Security Council stated that the US naval blockade will be lifted immediately and the war will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the official signing ceremony for the “peace deal” will take place on Friday in Switzerland. Signs of progress in the US-Iran peace agreement boost the CHF and create a headwind for the pair.

The US central bank is set to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference and take more cues about how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.

Markets have priced in nearly a 64% chance of a Fed interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

New Zealand Dollar gains on easing risk aversion

NZD/USD holds strong despite New Zealand’s services sector contracting for a fourth straight month as May’s PSI dropped to 47.5.
The US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal eases geopolitical tensions, lowering global inflation and interest rate concerns.
Iran stated final talks depend on US compliance, demanding an immediate and complete end to the maritime blockade.

NZD/USD gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5850 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds ground following the release of domestic economic data.

New Zealand’s services sector continues to struggle, as the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 47.5 in May, down from a revised 48.7 in April. This marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction for the sector.

Concurrently, the broader economy is showing signs of a deeper slowdown. The Performance of Composite Index dropped from a revised 49.2 to 48.4, signaling its third straight month of contraction and its steepest decline since June 2025.

The NZD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines after the United States (US) and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.

The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany ‌and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war.

Iran’s National Security Council confirmed a ceasefire agreement with the US, adding that final deal talks will start after the other party fulfills commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials said the maritime blockade against Iran should end immediately and entirely.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

United States Dollar Index drops as safe-haven demand fades

US Dollar Index declines on fading safe-haven demand as a US-Iran deal eases inflation and interest rate concerns.
Washington and Tehran announced Sunday they have reached a peace agreement, which will officially take effect this coming Friday.
The CME FedWatch tool shows December Fed rate hike odds falling to nearly 27% after the peace deal.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 99.50 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Greenback declines on fading safe-haven demand following reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are pricing in nearly a 27% probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 40% a week ago.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY – Strengthens above 113.00, positive tone remains intact

AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 113.35 in Monday’s early European session.
RBA is anticipated to leave the interest rate unchanged, while BoJ is set to raise its benchmark rate on Tuesday.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 113.60; the initial support level to watch is 112.25.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.35 during the early European session on Monday. The reports that the United States (US) had agreed to a peace deal with Iran provide some support to the riskier assets, such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions later on Tuesday.

CNN reported on Sunday that Washington and Tehran have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump said the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.

On Tuesday, the RBA is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year, with money markets paring bets on further tightening. Traders will take more cues from the press conference on whether RBA Governor Michele Bullock signals some comfort at the current rate or keeps the door open to further moves to counter stubborn price pressures. Fading expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Australian central bank might cap the upside for the Aussie in the near term.

The BoJ is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995, undeterred by the absence of its governor. A Reuters poll showed economists projecting the Japanese central bank to raise rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter (Q4) after a hike in June to 1.0%.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a constructive bias as it holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand on dips. Price, however, trades just under the Bollinger mid-line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 50, hinting at a consolidative tone within an overall uptrend.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 113.60, with the upper Bollinger Band near 114.92 acting as the next barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, support sits first at the lower Bollinger Band around 112.25, ahead of the 100-day SMA clustered near 111.90, where a break would weaken the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper corrective slide.

Currency Hedger June 15, 2026 No Comments

Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on mood

AUD/USD advances despite the fact that markets are ruling out any interest rate action on Tuesday.
US Dollar declines as a US-Iran peace deal faded safe-haven demand, easing fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows December Fed rate hike odds falling to nearly 27% after the peace deal.

AUD/USD gains around 0.5% after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7080 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could struggle against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are ruling out a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate move at Tuesday’s June meeting and have lowered bets for an August hike. All eyes now turn to the May CPI data on June 24, which will be critical for policymakers looking for signs of persistent inflation to justify future policy tightening.

The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on fading safe-haven demand following reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.