Currency Hedger No Comments

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1719 on Monday, and despite seemingly positive industrial data, the eurozone is sending out worrying signals. The final reading of the PMI index for the manufacturing sector stood at 52.2 points in April, up from 51.6 a month earlier, which at first glance looks like a solid improvement. In reality, however, the rise in manufacturing activity is not driven by real demand, but by increased stockpiling by firms seeking to secure goods against further shortages and price rises resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This is a seemingly positive result, which in fact says more about the fear of supply chain disruptions than about the actual strength of the European economy. The devil is in the details, and it is these details that are shaping the outlook for both growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Delivery delays have reached their worst level since July 2022, input cost inflation has risen to a 46-month high, and price pressures are increasingly being passed on to selling prices, marking the largest monthly jump since records began in 1997. As a result, the ECB faces a real dilemma: the data suggest a recovery, but leading indicators of producer sentiment and expectations merely confirm the growing risk of stagflation. For EUR/USD, this implies an environment of heightened uncertainty, in which the exchange rate may be prone to sharp movements depending on further signals from the Fed and the ECB, and any stronger US inflation data could push the pair back towards the support level at 1.1650.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, following a sharp rally to around 1.2060 at the start of the year, the exchange rate underwent a significant correction that brought prices down to lows around 1.1380, from where a rebound occurred.

Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1719, oscillating near the 50-day EMA (1.1681) and the 100-day EMA (1.1678), which together form a dynamic support zone, while the 200-day EMA at 1.1634 serves as another line of defense for the bulls. Bollinger Bands indicate narrowing volatility, with the upper band at 1.1771 and the lower band at 1.1669, signaling a potential breakout in the coming sessions. The RSI is hovering around the neutral level of 52, which does not provide a clear directional signal and suggests that the market is still looking for momentum for a decisive move above the resistance at 1.1800 or a deeper correction toward the aforementioned 200-day EMA support.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Offshore Yuan Hits 2-Week High

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.81 per dollar on Monday, reaching a two-week high amid the extended Labour Day holiday, as rising demand for yuan settlements supported the currency. Yuan-denominated settlements via the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) reached CNY 1.46 trillion in March, roughly triple the level five years ago. The surge has been driven in part by greater use of the yuan in energy trade amid the Middle East war, as Iran began accepting yuan for transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia has also shifted toward yuan-based settlements for energy exports, particularly in trade with China. Similar trends are emerging in the Middle East, where the yuan’s share of Saudi oil transactions exceeded 40% in March. Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to rein in financial risks while promoting the yuan as a global reserve currency, fueling expectations of faster internationalization and a wider global role for China’s currency.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains vulnerable below 0.8640

  • EUR/GBP recovery attempt from 0.8620 lows remains limited below 0.8640.
  • The Pound is outperforming the Euro, with risk appetite subdued.
  • Euro bears remain in control, with the 2026 low near 0.8610 at a short distance.

The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed

The Pound shows a slightly better performance than the Euro on a cautious start to the week, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump flagged a military operation to free vessels of neutral nations stranded in the critical waterway, but without providing further details.

The UK economic calendar is thin on Monday. In Europe, April’s final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to confirm a moderate expansion in the sector’s activity, while the Sentix Index will provide details about investors’ confidence ahead of speeches by some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers.

Technical Analysis: Previous support at 0.8640 is holding bulls

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP remains stalled below the confluence of a reverse trendline from late March highs and the area between 0.8630 and 0.8640, which supported bears on March 23, 24, and 26.

Technical indicators in 4-hour charts are in bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 signals weak demand rather than oversold stress, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram fluctuates around the zero line, hinting at sluggish momentum.

Failure to extend recovery past 0.8640 leaves the 2026 low, at 0.8611 (March 19 low), on the bears’ focus. Further down, the next target is the August 2025 low, at 0.8596. On the upside, a confirmation above 0.8640 would shift the focus towards the April 27 and 28 lows, around 0.8655, and the April 24 high, near 0.8685.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.06%-0.01%-0.09%0.06%0.07%-0.13%-0.05%
EUR0.06%0.01%-0.04%0.12%0.14%-0.06%-0.01%
GBP0.00%-0.01%-0.06%0.11%0.12%-0.11%-0.01%
JPY0.09%0.04%0.06%0.12%0.11%-0.10%-0.02%
CAD-0.06%-0.12%-0.11%-0.12%-0.01%-0.22%-0.12%
AUD-0.07%-0.14%-0.12%-0.11%0.00%-0.24%-0.14%
NZD0.13%0.06%0.11%0.10%0.22%0.24%0.09%
CHF0.05%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.12%0.14%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY approaches 157.00 after falling to 155.70 on likely Yen intervention

  • USD/JPY regains lost ground after a sudden drop to 155.70 earlier on Monday.
  • Yen crosses dropped sharply on Monday on another suspected intervention.
  • A Reuters report suggests that Tokyo would have spent 5.48 trillion Yen ($35 billion) last week to support the JPY.

The US Dollar (USD) pares previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) ahead of the European session opening on Monday. The pair is trading at the 156.80 area at the time of writing after dropping about 150 pips in a matter of minutes during the Asian session, hitting session lows near 155.70.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) did not make any comment, as usual, but the nature of the decline, without any clear fundamental reason behind, and with all Yen crosses acting in the same way, suggests that Japanese authorities intervened in markets again.

Beyond that, Reuters reported on Friday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might have spent 5.48 trillion Yen ($35 billion) to support the JPY last week. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that Tokyo authorities were ready to take decisive action against currency speculators after the USD/JPY crossed the 160.00 level, considered a line in the sand for the MOF. The Yen has seen several jumps since then.

Markets, otherwise, remain calm on Monday with the focus in the Middle East, after US President Donald Trump pledged to free vessels blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, yet without giving further details on the operation. Iranian authorities affirmed that the critical waterway will remain closed.

In the economic docket, the Japanese calendar is void, amid the Golden Week holidays. In the US, Factory Orders data will open the week on Monday and lay the ground for ISM Services PMI on Tuesday and a slew of employment reports throughout the week, including the key Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. Apart from that, a string of Federal Reserve policymakers will provide further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy stance. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

Pound Sterling advances on BoE hawkish hold while Hormuz tensions cap gains

  • GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3600 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The BoE maintained the interest rate at 3.75% last week but delivered a hawkish hold.
  • An Iranian official warned that Trump’s Hormuz mission will violate the ceasefire. 

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength around 1.3600 during the early European session on Monday. Signals from the Bank of England (BoE) that suggest a potential shift toward higher interest rates later this year underpin the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). The US employment report for April will be in the spotlight later on Friday. 

The UK central bank held the bank rate steady at 3.75% as widely expected, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation. 

Nonetheless, uncertainty in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz could support the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair. US President Donald Trump said the US will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday. Top Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said that any US interference in the Strait will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.

Traders brace for the US employment report for April later on Friday. The US economy is estimated to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period. Any signs of weakening in the US labor market could weigh on the USD against the GBP. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as bullish potential seems intact

  • EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week.
  • The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for some upside in the near-term.
  • A break below the 1.1650-1.1645 confluence is needed to negate the positive bias.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1700 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of Friday’s retracement slide from a one-and-a-half week top.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting dips are being absorbed for now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 53 points to mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.

However, Friday’s pullback makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1750 area, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing, before positioning for further gains. A subsequent hurdle is aligned at the recent cycle high area at 1.1847.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around 1.1692, followed by a key confluence zone formed by the 200-period SMA at 1.1648 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.1644. A deeper pullback could then target the 61.8% level at 1.1596, ahead of 1.1528 and 1.1441.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD
Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/CHF slips to near 0.7800 as safe-haven demand weighs on US Dollar

  • USD/CHF struggles as the US Dollar weakens on easing safe-haven demand, with traders monitoring progress in US–Iran talks.
  • Trump signaled Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short, expressing doubts over its acceptability.
  • Donald Trump said the US will escort neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday.

USD/CHF depreciates after registering slight gains the previous day, trading around 0.7810 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid easing safe-haven demand, with traders assessing progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Swiss SVME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.

Data released on Friday showed that Switzerland’s real retail sales rose by 0.5% YoY in March, falling short of market expectations for a 1% increase, after a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales posted a modest 0.1% rise, following a revised 0.1% decline recorded in February.

Mediation efforts to end the conflict have continued as the war in Iran enters its third month. Donald Trump hinted that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday. Iran has proposed setting a one-month deadline for talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending both the US naval blockade and the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

Another Bloomberg report indicated on Sunday that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.

However, an Iranian official warned that US interference in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, adding that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders are likely awaiting the upcoming US employment report for April later this week. The US economy is expected to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 113.00, while broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00. 

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets. 

US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.

On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.  

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.