Forex - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY – Weakens to near 187.50, while staying bullish above 100-day EMA

EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY – Bounces off one-week low, defends trading range support near 158.25

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session as renewed intervention fears boost the JPY.
Iran diplomacy hopes and fading hawkish Fed bets undermine the USD, further weighing on the pair.
Bears await a sustained break below the trading range support before positioning for further losses.

The USD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s modest rise and drops to over a one-week low, around the 158.25 region during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 158.70 area, down over 0.15% for the day.

Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, saying that she discussed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange, revived intervention fears, and boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since late February. These turned out to be key factors exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on any further JPY appreciation and assist the currency pair to bounce off the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. The said area also represents the lower end of a short-term trading range, and a break below will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears, which should pave the way for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped into negative territory and continues to edge lower. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-bearish ground, hinting that the momentum is softening and buyers are losing some control. This further makes it prudent to wait for a decisive breakdown of structure before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair.

A clear break and acceptance below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, where buyers have room to defend the recent consolidation floor, would expose bigger corrective risk. However, as long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the underlying bias stays modestly bullish, and any recovery attempts from current levels would likely be viewed as a continuation of the prevailing uptrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.09%	-0.11%	-0.17%	-0.16%	-0.26%	-0.01%	-0.14%
EUR	0.09%		-0.03%	-0.07%	-0.07%	-0.17%	0.05%	-0.05%
GBP	0.11%	0.03%		-0.04%	-0.06%	-0.15%	0.08%	-0.03%
JPY	0.17%	0.07%	0.04%		-0.00%	-0.09%	0.10%	0.03%
CAD	0.16%	0.07%	0.06%	0.00%		-0.09%	0.13%	-0.00%
AUD	0.26%	0.17%	0.15%	0.09%	0.09%		0.22%	0.14%
NZD	0.00%	-0.05%	-0.08%	-0.10%	-0.13%	-0.22%		-0.10%
CHF	0.14%	0.05%	0.03%	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.14%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

EUR/CAD holds losses near 1.6200 as Canadian Dollar gains on risk-on mood

EUR/CAD weakens as the Canadian Dollar gains support despite softer oil prices.
Washington and Tehran are weighing an extension of their two-week ceasefire to gain more time for peace negotiations.
Middle East de-escalation boosts risk appetite, while falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.

EUR/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from easing Middle East conflict. However, the commodity-linked CAD may come under pressure from softer oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States.

Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.”

However, the Euro (EUR) also holds ground against its major peers amid improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

“Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have boosted risk appetite, with declining oil prices helping to ease inflationary pressures in Eurozone. Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this week that the central bank must remain “completely agile” on rates, while emphasizing that it does not hold a bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, traders continue to view rate hikes as unavoidable, pricing in two quarter-point increases this year.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

Offshore Yuan Hits Over 3-Year High

The offshore yuan edged higher to above 6.81 per USD, hitting its highest in more than three years as stronger-than-expected growth in China’s economy boosted sentiment. The world’s second-largest economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter from a year ago, accelerating from the 4.5% gain in the prior quarter and beating forecasts. However, signs of weakness started to emerge as the war in Iran disrupted global supply chains. March activity data showed a mixed backdrop, with industrial output rising 5.7% but slowing from earlier in the year, while retail sales increased 1.7%, missing expectations and easing from the previous period. This followed recent trade data, which highlighted a severe cooling in China’s export growth, indicating that the ongoing Middle East war may be dragging down global demand. Meantime, the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for talks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

CAD strengthens as risk-on mood weighs on US Dollar

USD/CAD falls as the US Dollar weakens on improved sentiment amid Middle East de-escalation hopes.
Trump said the war is “close to over,” with reports suggesting a possible two-week ceasefire extension.
Easing energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further tightening.

USD/CAD loses ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3730 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” A Bloomberg report indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

The Greenback faced additional pressure from easing energy prices, which helped ease inflation concerns and tempered expectations of further central bank tightening. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady this month and possibly for the rest of the year.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face challenges with easing oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

Reports suggested that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may permit vessels to transit freely via the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

AUD holds gains after mixed Australian, Chinese data

AUD/USD holds gains near 0.7180 in Thursday’s Asian session.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in March, in line with the consensus.
Traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

The AUD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.7180 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Greenback amid mixed economic data from Australian and Chinese dockets.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed that Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3% in March. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 17.9K in March. This reading followed 49.7K in February (revised from 48.9K), missing the forecast of 20K.

On the Chinese front, the annual March Retail Sales increased by 1.7% versus 2.3% expected and 2.8% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.7% versus 5.5% estimate and February’s reading of 6.3%. Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to a 1.2% growth in Q4 of 2025. The Aussie attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the mixed readings.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations about a longer-term peace deal. However, tensions remain particularly high over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

NZD/USD remains stronger above 0.5900 as China’s economy expands in Q1

NZD/USD stays firm following China’s first-quarter GDP data release.
China’s Q1 2026 GDP rose 1.3% QoQ from 1.2% in Q4 2025, matching expectations.
The US Dollar weakens on improved sentiment amid expectations of Middle East de-escalation.

NZD/USD remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.5920 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair remains stronger following China’s first-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures. China’s economic change could impact the NZD as a key trading partner for New Zealand.

China’s economy expanded 1.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to a 1.2% growth in Q4 of 2025, coming in line with the market consensus. On an annual basis, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 5.0% in Q1 after advancing 4.5% in the previous quarter, stronger than the market expectation of 4.8% print.

China’s annual March Retail Sales increased by 1.7% versus 2.3% expected and 2.8% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.7% versus 5.5% estimate and February’s reading of 6.3%.

The NZD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground on improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Currency Hedger April 16, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF slumps to near 0.7800 as US Dollar extends decline amid Iran optimism

USD/CHF declines to near 0.7800 due to continued underperformance from the US Dollar.
The US Dollar has been battered by the US-Iran permanent ceasefire optimism.
US President Trump expresses confidence in some positive announcements relating to Iran soon.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.2% lower to near 0.7800 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) continues to underperform amid increasing hopes that the United States (US) and Iran would reach a permanent ceasefire soon.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 97.85, the lowest level seen in over six weeks.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.17%	-0.27%	-0.17%	-0.29%	-0.06%	-0.19%
EUR	0.13%		-0.04%	-0.13%	-0.04%	-0.15%	0.04%	-0.06%
GBP	0.17%	0.04%		-0.09%	-0.02%	-0.13%	0.08%	-0.03%
JPY	0.27%	0.13%	0.09%		0.08%	-0.01%	0.14%	0.07%
CAD	0.17%	0.04%	0.02%	-0.08%		-0.11%	0.10%	-0.01%
AUD	0.29%	0.15%	0.13%	0.01%	0.11%		0.19%	0.12%
NZD	0.06%	-0.04%	-0.08%	-0.14%	-0.10%	-0.19%		-0.10%
CHF	0.19%	0.06%	0.03%	-0.07%	0.01%	-0.12%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The optimism over a US-Iran permanent truce has diminished the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Also, traders have priced out the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year on expectations that oil prices will fall if the US and Iran reach a deal. Higher oil prices forced traders to raise hawkish Fed bets for the year in March. There was anticipation of at least one interest rate hike this year.

The US-Iran optimism has been prompted by comments from US President Donald Trump that there could be a positive announcement over Middle East conflicts, which came on early Wednesday. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,” Trump said in an interview with ABC News.

In Switzerland, investors await the Producer and Import Prices data of March, which will be published at 06:30 GMT. The data is estimated to have grown 0.2% after declining 0.3% in February.