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NZD/USD treads water above 0.5850 following China’s Trade Balance data

  • NZD/USD remains steady following the release of China’s Trade Balance data for March.
  • Market sentiment improves as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
  • US Vice President JD Vance signaled ongoing diplomacy and a potential path toward US–Iran de-escalation.

NZD/USD inches lower after registering 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the release of China’s Trade Balance data for March. It is important to note that any change in the Chinese economy could impact the NZD as China and New Zealand are close trade partners.

In Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion. Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.

However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar USD) may struggle amid easing risk aversion, which could be attributed to the reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

Markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.

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USD/CHF holds gains near 0.7925 as failed US-Iran talks and inflation fears support USD

  • USD/CHF regains positive traction on Monday as failed US-Iran peace talks boost the USD.
  • Reviving inflation fears reaffirm hawkish Fed expectations and also benefit the Greenback.
  • The setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further intraday appreciating move.

The USD/CHF pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and recovers further from a nearly three-week low, around the 0.7855 area, touched on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a five-day losing streak and currently trade around the 0.7925 region, up 0.50% for the day, amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).

The global risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse in reaction to failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend and benefits the USD’s global reserve currency status. Despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions, high-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the region.

Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and revive inflationary concerns, which might force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, hot inflation data released on Friday led investors to abandon bets on Fed rate cuts this year and shift focus towards potential rate hikes. This is reinforced by a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor offering support to the Greenback.

The Wall Street Journal, citing officials familiar with the discussions, reported that regional countries are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days. This keeps the door open for further diplomacy, which keeps a lid on additional USD gains. That said, the USD/CHF pair showed some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the subsequent move favors bullish traders.  This suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

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USD/JPY – Price Strength beyond 160.00 awaited amid bullish technical setup

  • USD/JPY struggles to build on modest Asian session gains as intervention fears limit JPY losses.
  • The fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls and backs the case for further gains for the pair.
  • The technical setup also suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

The USD/JPY pair builds on gains from the past two days and opens with a bullish gap at the start of the new week, rising to the 159.85 region during the Asian session. However, intervention fears keep a lid on any further appreciation for spot prices.

Failed US-Iran peace talks trigger a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status. Adding to this, rallying Crude Oil prices fuel inflationary fears and reaffirm hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which further underpins the buck and offers support to the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is weighed down by economic concerns stemming from imported energy shocks due to the Middle East conflict. However, speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY weakness hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets and cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.

Spot prices retain a bullish bias following last week’s resilience below the 158.25-158.20 horizontal support. Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair holds comfortably above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 63 suggests firm upside momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.

Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns increasingly positive, hinting that buyers retain control for now. The USD/JPY bulls, however, might await a sustained strength and acceptance above the 160.00 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of a three-day-old appreciating move.

On the downside, initial support is reinforced by the 200-period SMA at 158.56, which underpins the broader uptrend and would be the first level watched in the event of a corrective pullback. This is followed by the 158.25-158.20 support and the 158.00 mark, which, if broken, could turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY
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EUR/USD Price Rebounds to near 1.1700 as bullish bias prevails

  • EUR/USD may face key resistance near 1.1750 at the upper ascending channel boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum.
  • The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.1640.

EUR/USD edges higher after opening at a gap down, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is rising within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This constructive positioning is backed by a 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may find its primary barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1750, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair in exploring the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1640, aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.1636. A break below these averages would weaken the price momentum and expose the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1500, followed by the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.32%0.46%0.27%0.17%0.45%0.28%0.35%
EUR-0.32%0.12%-0.04%-0.14%0.11%-0.03%0.07%
GBP-0.46%-0.12%-0.17%-0.29%-0.02%-0.17%-0.10%
JPY-0.27%0.04%0.17%-0.15%0.14%-0.03%0.11%
CAD-0.17%0.14%0.29%0.15%0.32%0.13%0.19%
AUD-0.45%-0.11%0.02%-0.14%-0.32%-0.15%-0.02%
NZD-0.28%0.03%0.17%0.03%-0.13%0.15%0.10%
CHF-0.35%-0.07%0.10%-0.11%-0.19%0.02%-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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CAD pares losses vs USD as rallying oil prices counter hawkish Fed bets

  • USD/CAD struggles to build on its modest gains amid a combination of factors.
  • The door for further diplomacy remains open, capping the USD and the major.
  • Rallying Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind for spot prices.

The USD/CAD pair retreats a few pips from the Asian session high and currently trades around the 1.3860-1.3855 region, up around 0.15% for the day. Meanwhile, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of a modest recovery from sub-1.3800 levels, or over a two-week low set on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the weekly bullish gap opening amid reports that regional countries are racing to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days. This keeps the door open for further diplomacy and caps the safe-haven Greenback. Moreover, an intraday rally in Crude Oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and contributes to capping the USD/CAD pair.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – rallies back to the $105/barrel mark in reaction to failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance said that he placed a final and best offer on the table, but Iran declined to accept the terms, leading to a stalemate. Meanwhile, Iranian state media said that excessive demands sank the possibility of an agreement.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. Adding to this, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon raise the risk of a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East and support oil prices. However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets should limit deeper losses for the buck and the USD/CAD pair.

Data released on Friday showed that inflation in the US surged by the most in nearly four years during March. Apart from this, the war-driven surge in elevated energy prices led investors to abandon bets on Fed rate cuts and shift focus to potential interest rate hikes this year. The outlook triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which favors the USD bulls and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

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Offshore Yuan Snaps 6-Session Winning Streak

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.83 per dollar on Monday, snapping a six-session winning streak, as the greenback strengthened broadly after US–Iran peace talks ended without a breakthrough. The face-to-face negotiations between the two countries’ delegations concluded with both sides acknowledging that significant differences remain. Vice President JD Vance reiterated the lack of progress, while Iranian representatives echoed similar concerns. Following the talks, President Trump announced that the US Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising further concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. On the domestic front, investors are closely watching a packed economic calendar this week. Key data releases, including the trade balance, Q1 GDP growth, industrial output, retail sales, and the unemployment rate, are expected to provide fresh insights into the strength and trajectory of the economy.

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USD/MXN Rises on Weak Dollar

The Mexican peso strengthened 0.3% on Friday, trading around 17.31 as markets focused on geopolitical developments, including US–Iran negotiations. Uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to support a geopolitical risk premium. The US dollar remains under pressure as US inflation stays broadly in line with expectations and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance, limiting Treasury yield upside. At the same time, resilient but uneven US growth keeps markets balanced between inflation and slowdown risks. Risk appetite supports emerging market currencies, with the peso benefiting from strong carry appeal and a wide interest rate differential versus the US. USD/MXN is down 14.79% this year, reflecting dollar weakness and sustained inflows into Mexican assets.

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Currency Talk – GBP/USD, AUD/NZD, USD/CHF

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis relies solely on the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine points where a trend may continue or where a reversal might occur.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD price has broken its downward trend by rising above the 1.3360 level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger upward correction or even a trend reversal. Currently, the 1.3360 level—the upper boundary of the negated 1:1 geometry—serves as key support. Conversely, for a return to the downtrend, the price would also need to fall below the 1.3315 level, where the lower boundary of the local 1:1 uptrend pattern is located.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

AUDNZD
The AUDNZD pair has been in an uptrend for quite some time. The latest correction was exactly the same size as the previous ones, marked by the green rectangle. We are currently observing a local corrective move. If the correction continues, key support based on the Overbalance methodology is at the 0.6992 level, where the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains above this level, the uptrend remains in effect.

AUDNZD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

USDCHF
USDCHF prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but since late January we have seen a dynamic upward correction. Currently, the price has rebounded from a key resistance level at 0.8042, where the upper boundary of the largest 1:1 pattern is located, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, may signal a return to the downtrend. For this scenario to be confirmed, the price should sustainably fall below the 0.7902 level, where the lower boundary of the smaller pattern is located. In that case, a acceleration of the decline toward recent lows would be possible. Conversely, a break above the 0.8042 level would open the way for further gains.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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