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GBP/USD – Hovers around nine-day EMA near 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.

The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.03%-0.02%-0.01%0.11%0.14%-0.11%
EUR0.02%-0.03%0.02%0.00%0.11%0.18%-0.08%
GBP0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.13%0.18%-0.07%
JPY0.02%-0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.13%0.18%-0.04%
CAD0.01%-0.00%-0.02%0.01%0.14%0.18%-0.07%
AUD-0.11%-0.11%-0.13%-0.13%-0.14%0.05%-0.25%
NZD-0.14%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.05%-0.26%
CHF0.11%0.08%0.07%0.04%0.07%0.25%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85

Facts:

The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward

Recommendation:

Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90

Opinion:

Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.

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USD/INR boards fresh rally as oil prices remain elevated

  • The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as higher oil prices boost demand for the Greenback by Indian importers.
  • Fresh concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections have dampened the FIIs interest in the Indian stock market.
  • This week, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.50 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian Rupee

Hormuz closure keeps oil prices elevated

The uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington.

“I wouldn’t say they’re considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don’t want to get ahead of, and you’ll hear directly from the president, I’m sure, on this topic,” Leavitt said.

On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one, which it was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but “still not good enough”.

FIIs extends selling pressure in Indian stock market

In the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.

Fed seems to maintain status quo

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high of 95.20

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.

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EUR/JPY – Price Moves below 186.50, nine-day confluence

  • EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53 signals positive, not overstretched momentum.
  • The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross slips below the ascending channel, signaling a possible bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish even as it consolidates just under the nine-day EMA, which acts as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum, and hints that dips toward the underlying averages could continue to attract buyers while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 around the lower boundary of the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.80.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may fall toward initial support, which lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.19%0.17%0.00%0.05%0.19%0.32%0.40%
EUR-0.19%-0.04%-0.22%-0.17%-0.02%0.07%0.20%
GBP-0.17%0.04%-0.17%-0.12%0.03%0.13%0.23%
JPY0.00%0.22%0.17%0.06%0.20%0.30%0.40%
CAD-0.05%0.17%0.12%-0.06%0.14%0.24%0.35%
AUD-0.19%0.02%-0.03%-0.20%-0.14%0.11%0.24%
NZD-0.32%-0.07%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.11%0.09%
CHF-0.40%-0.20%-0.23%-0.40%-0.35%-0.24%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting

  • EUR/USD edges lower as the US-Iran stalemate revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
  • Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks underpins the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing aggressive bets. This assists the EUR/USD pair to hold above the 1.1700 round-figure mark.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late March low. However, momentum oscillators are mixed and hint that upside pressure is constructive but not impulsive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is marginally positive and above its signal.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips back toward the mid-40s. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the 23.6% Fibo. and the subsequent fall warrants caution before placing positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1749 (23.6% Fibo. level), ahead of a more substantial barrier at the recent cycle high region just ahead of mid-1.1800s.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1690, with further cushions at the 50.0% level around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A deeper pullback toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would only come into view if the EUR/USD pair slips decisively below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.03%-0.22%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.12%
EUR-0.06%-0.04%-0.30%-0.02%-0.04%0.04%0.06%
GBP-0.03%0.04%-0.24%0.03%0.02%0.10%0.10%
JPY0.22%0.30%0.24%0.29%0.28%0.36%0.35%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.03%-0.29%-0.02%0.06%0.07%
AUD-0.04%0.04%-0.02%-0.28%0.02%0.09%0.12%
NZD-0.15%-0.04%-0.10%-0.36%-0.06%-0.09%-0.01%
CHF-0.12%-0.06%-0.10%-0.35%-0.07%-0.12%0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP/JPY slips as UK political risk pressures Pound, Yen weakness limits losses

  • GBP/JPY trims intraday gains as the British Pound softens on UK political uncertainty.
  • Markets await the BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions due this week.
  • Technicals remain bullish above key SMAs, though momentum shows signs of cooling.

GBP/JPY gives back part of its earlier gains on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) comes under pressure following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face a parliamentary vote on a possible probe into whether he misled lawmakers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

However, the downside remains limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform most of its major peers, with elevated Oil prices weighing on the currency given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.

At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 215.67, easing slightly after hitting 216.06, its highest level since January 2008, while the wide interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.

Attention now turns to upcoming monetary policy meetings due this week, with both the BoE and the BoJ widely expected to hold rates steady as policymakers assess the impact of rising Oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

The BoJ’s slow pace of policy normalization is likely to keep the Yen on the defensive, although lingering intervention risks could limit further weakness amid repeated warnings from Japanese officials, with USD/JPY hovering close to the 160 mark.

In the daily chart, GBP/JPY keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above both the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at 213.60 and the 50-day SMA at 212.24. The positive but moderating Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum persists, though the pace of the advance is losing some steam as the cross consolidates near recent highs.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 213.60, with a deeper pullback likely finding additional demand near the 50-day SMA at 212.24. As long as GBP/JPY holds above these moving averages, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and any dips toward this support band may be treated as corrective rather than signaling a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.08%-0.06%-0.43%-0.49%-0.51%-0.03%
EUR0.14%0.08%0.09%-0.28%-0.32%-0.35%0.13%
GBP0.08%-0.08%0.00%-0.38%-0.43%-0.45%0.05%
JPY0.06%-0.09%0.00%-0.35%-0.42%-0.46%0.09%
CAD0.43%0.28%0.38%0.35%-0.06%-0.10%0.41%
AUD0.49%0.32%0.43%0.42%0.06%-0.01%0.47%
NZD0.51%0.35%0.45%0.46%0.10%0.01%0.49%
CHF0.03%-0.13%-0.05%-0.09%-0.41%-0.47%-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP: Loses momentum as BoE turns hawkish – MUFG

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening. They see scope for several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for a hike, keeping EUR/GBP under pressure.

Pound supported by stronger UK data

“The initial negative impact of the energy price shock on the euro‑zone economy was evident in the latest PMI surveys for April. The surveys showed that business confidence fell sharply in the services sector, while holding up better among manufacturers. The euro‑zone services PMI declined by 2.8 points to 47.4 in April, whereas the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 52.2.”

“For the euro‑zone economy as a whole, the composite PMI dropped by 2.1 points to 48.6, marking its weakest level since November 2024. The index has now fallen by 3.3 points since February, prior to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has deteriorated more quickly than during the previous energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and is already at much weaker levels.”

“The GBP has held up better than the EUR over the past week, placing modest downward pressure on EUR/GBP, although the pair has remained within a relatively tight 0.8600–0.8800 range since the conflict began. The GBP has been supported by further evidence that the UK economy started the year with more underlying momentum than previously expected, while the initial negative impact of the energy price shock has so far appeared limited.”

“Stronger growth momentum has increased the risk of a hawkish policy update from the BoE this week. The UK rate market has moved to price back in more tightening from the BoE, and the uplift for UK yields has provided more support for the GBP. The 2-year government bond yield in the UK has increased by around 30bps from the recent low compared to around 20bps in the euro-zone and just over 10bps in the US.”

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EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

  • EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
  • Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
  • Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.16%-0.16%-0.40%-0.49%-0.51%-0.11%
EUR0.21%0.08%0.07%-0.19%-0.26%-0.29%0.10%
GBP0.16%-0.08%0.00%-0.24%-0.34%-0.37%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.07%0.00%-0.23%-0.34%-0.38%0.08%
CAD0.40%0.19%0.24%0.23%-0.10%-0.14%0.29%
AUD0.49%0.26%0.34%0.34%0.10%-0.01%0.39%
NZD0.51%0.29%0.37%0.38%0.14%0.01%0.41%
CHF0.11%-0.10%-0.04%-0.08%-0.29%-0.39%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).