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Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD/INR jumps higher as Oil price recovery batters Indian Rupee

The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar amid renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).

Hormuz closure boosts oil prices

WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.

On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.

US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions

Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.20%	0.24%	0.04%	0.35%	0.29%	0.16%
EUR	-0.11%		0.09%	0.09%	-0.08%	0.23%	0.19%	0.04%
GBP	-0.20%	-0.09%		0.00%	-0.16%	0.14%	0.10%	-0.06%
JPY	-0.24%	-0.09%	0.00%		-0.15%	0.14%	0.05%	-0.06%
CAD	-0.04%	0.08%	0.16%	0.15%		0.29%	0.22%	0.10%
AUD	-0.35%	-0.23%	-0.14%	-0.14%	-0.29%		-0.05%	-0.17%
NZD	-0.29%	-0.19%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.22%	0.05%		-0.14%
CHF	-0.16%	-0.04%	0.06%	0.06%	-0.10%	0.17%	0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.

Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.

On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers above 20-day EMA

USD/INR recovers its Friday’s losses and rises further to near 93.25 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD: Political noise and softer BoE pricing – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling has held up even as markets scale back Bank of England tightening expectations to just one 25bp hike this year, while ING expects no change in rates. Political scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on sentiment. ING warns GBP/USD may surrender recent gains, eyeing 1.3380/1.3400 as an initial downside target.

Sterling resilience faces policy and politics

“Sterling has been performing reasonably well despite the market removing a lot of the expected Bank of England tightening this year. The market still prices one 25bp hike this year, while our team sees unchanged rates. That hike may not be priced out until oil prices drop, however.”

“There is also the small matter of politics in the UK. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today make a statement in parliament to potentially correct the record on the approval process for the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.”

“This will be a tough session for PM Starmer and one which will extend into tomorrow, when the top civil servant involved in the approval process also appears at a parliamentary hearing.”

“GBP/USD could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the 1.3380/3400 area.”

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

USD: Volatility shifts support weaker trend – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a sharp fall in the US Dollar, leaving year-to-date performance broadly flat and in line with the longer-term dollar-down trend. The bank argues that recent volatility episodes suggest only muted Dollar upside, consistent with a regime shift linked to de-dollarisation and concerns over US fiscal and institutional dynamics.

Dollar-down regime and volatility dynamics

“April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a big drop in the US dollar. This leaves year-to-date performance essentially flat, maintaining the longer-term “dollar-down” trend.”

“Given ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty, there is a strong chance that market volatility will pick up again. However, March’s market action suggests that any resulting boost to the dollar could be fairly subdued.”

“Indeed, the trend over the past couple of years indicates that the dollar remains relatively static during episodes of volatility. This represents a major regime shift.”

“It may reflect gradual de-dollarisation, mounting concerns over US public finances and institutional integrity, and a growing belief that the Fed is hamstrung in responding to inflation shocks – a stark contrast to its more aggressive stance in 2022.”

“With the broadening out narrative somewhat dependent on sustained dollar weakness, recent market action proves that this scenario remains plausible in 2026.”

Currency Hedger April 20, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD: Limited upside as longer-term Dollar risks grow – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock. She notes the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) have held up better than in 2022 thanks to expectations of quicker tightening. Over the longer term, she highlights greater inflation and policy risks for the US Dollar (USD) versus the Euro.

Short-term cap, longer-term Dollar risk

“How will the fx markets develop in this environment? I think it makes sense to distinguish between the short and the longer term. In the short term – and we have already seen this to some extent – the focus is likely to be very much on the immediate reactions of the central banks.”

“This time things look a little different. The euro, and alongside it the British pound, are holding up fairly well against the US dollar. This is probably because markets trust both the ECB and the Bank of England to have learned from the mistakes of four years ago and to react early to inflation risks.”

“We have already expressed our doubts about market expectations for the ECB on several occasions, which is why we see the further upside potential in EUR/USD as limited. But that is only the short-term view. In the longer term, the pendulum could swing back again.”

“Therefore, in the longer term, the wheat is likely to be separated from the chaff, and only those currencies will prove robust where inflation falls back towards the 2% target more quickly. We see substantial risks in particular for the dollar. Apart from inflation, which has recently been firmer anyway due to the significant increases in import tariffs, further attacks by the US government are likely to make it difficult for the US central bank to respond adequately to an inflation shock.”

Currency Hedger April 18, 2026 No Comments

Today Markets – Forecasting The Upcoming Week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks.

Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions.

However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would be viewed as a violation of the ceasefire.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.09%	-0.17%	-0.59%	-0.23%	-0.31%	-0.16%	-0.49%
EUR	0.09%		-0.08%	-0.52%	-0.15%	-0.22%	-0.08%	-0.42%
GBP	0.17%	0.08%		-0.45%	-0.07%	-0.14%	0.01%	-0.32%
JPY	0.59%	0.52%	0.45%		0.37%	0.28%	0.42%	0.09%
CAD	0.23%	0.15%	0.07%	-0.37%		-0.08%	0.05%	-0.26%
AUD	0.31%	0.22%	0.14%	-0.28%	0.08%		0.15%	-0.19%
NZD	0.16%	0.08%	-0.01%	-0.42%	-0.05%	-0.15%		-0.34%
CHF	0.49%	0.42%	0.32%	-0.09%	0.26%	0.19%	0.34%

EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.1790 region, benefiting from the softer USD tone, although gains remain capped by cautious sentiment and mixed Eurozone data.

GBP/USD is also advancing near the 1.3550 level, supported by improved risk appetite as the pair attempts to recover recent losses amid a reassessment of global risks.

USD/JPY fell near the 158.20 price zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds some support from residual safe-haven demand.

AUD/USD was one of the top performers earlier in the day, rallying sharply toward the 0.7200 region but later easing to near the 0.7180 price zone. Oil shock fears and improved global sentiment favor commodity-linked currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sharply declined to near the $83.00 per barrel, lower after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supply concerns ease and risk premiums unwind. Still, prices remain vulnerable to sudden spikes if geopolitical tensions resurface.

Gold surged toward $4,865, even after safe-haven demand weakened amid ongoing uncertainty and the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Tuesday, April 21:

ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s De Guindos speech
Fed’s Waller speech

Wednesday, April 22:

ECB’s Elderson speech
ECB’s Lane speech
BoE’s Breeden speech
ECB’s Lane speech
ECB’s Cipollone speech
ECB’s Sleijpen speech
ECB’s Nagel speech
ECB’s President Lagarde speech

Thursday, April 23:

ECB’s Nagel speech

Friday, April 24:

SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape

Monday, April 20:

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
Germany PPI March
Canada CPIs
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
New Zealand Business Confidence Q1
New Zealand CPI Q1

Tuesday, April 21:

United Kingdom Labor Market Data
Germany ZEW Survey April
Eurozone ZEW Survey April
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average
United States Retail Sales March
United States Pending Home Sales March
Japan Trade Balance March
Japan Exports March
Japan Imports March

Wednesday, April 22:

United Kingdom Inflation Data March
Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel

Thursday, April 23:

Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
France HCOB PMIs April Prel
Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
United States Initial Jobless Claims
United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
United States New Home Sales March
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
Japan Inflation Data March

Friday, April 24:

United Kingdom Retail Sales March
Germany IFO Survey April
Canada Retail Sales February
United States Michigan Data April
United States Inflation Expectations April

Currency Hedger April 18, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY slides as Iran reopens Hormuz, WTI plunges and USD weakens

USD/JPY edges lower as softer USD and falling Oil prices support the Yen.
WTI plunges over 10% after Hormuz reopening, easing inflation concerns.
Technically, USD/JPY trades below the 20-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias bearish.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against a softer US Dollar (USD), with easing Oil prices providing additional support, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 158.18, down 0.61% on the day.

Despite the decline, the pair remains largely range-bound within a one-month range between 157.50 and 160.50 and is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, mirroring moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies. The index remains under pressure amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.

Crude prices plunged more than 10% after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement on X that, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait has been declared open for the remaining period of the truce, with transit taking place along coordinated routes set by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

The sharp drop in Oil prices is easing immediate inflation risks, reviving expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual policy normalization path.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments around US–Iran talks over the weekend, with markets watching for signs of a lasting peace deal. However, unresolved differences, particularly over nuclear issues, could keep uncertainty elevated.

In the daily chart, USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as spot sits below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands at 159.20 while only marginally above the lower band support at 158.15. This configuration suggests the recent pullback is not yet resolved, with the pair trading in the lower half of its volatility envelope; a sub-50 Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around -0.20 both hint that downside momentum still outweighs buying interest.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger SMA midline near 159.20, with a stronger cap emerging at the upper band around 160.25, where renewed selling pressure could reappear if the pair attempts a rebound. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 158.15; a daily close below this level would expose deeper losses toward prior price floors, whereas holding above it would keep the pair confined to a corrective consolidation within the broader uptrend.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.12%	-0.19%	-0.62%	-0.20%	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.51%
EUR	0.12%		-0.07%	-0.52%	-0.09%	-0.17%	-0.05%	-0.41%
GBP	0.19%	0.07%		-0.45%	-0.02%	-0.10%	0.02%	-0.33%
JPY	0.62%	0.52%	0.45%		0.44%	0.35%	0.46%	0.12%
CAD	0.20%	0.09%	0.02%	-0.44%		-0.08%	0.02%	-0.31%
AUD	0.28%	0.17%	0.10%	-0.35%	0.08%		0.12%	-0.23%
NZD	0.16%	0.05%	-0.02%	-0.46%	-0.02%	-0.12%		-0.35%
CHF	0.51%	0.41%	0.33%	-0.12%	0.31%	0.23%	0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 18, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Breaks below key SMAs, eyes on 0.7800

USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.

For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.

On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.78%	-0.92%	-0.59%	-1.23%	-2.48%	-1.43%	-1.14%
EUR	0.78%		-0.15%	0.17%	-0.43%	-1.65%	-0.66%	-0.34%
GBP	0.92%	0.15%		0.26%	-0.30%	-1.50%	-0.51%	-0.18%
JPY	0.59%	-0.17%	-0.26%		-0.66%	-1.84%	-0.74%	-0.57%
CAD	1.23%	0.43%	0.30%	0.66%		-1.10%	-0.09%	0.11%
AUD	2.48%	1.65%	1.50%	1.84%	1.10%		1.06%	1.27%
NZD	1.43%	0.66%	0.51%	0.74%	0.09%	-1.06%		0.31%
CHF	1.14%	0.34%	0.18%	0.57%	-0.11%	-1.27%	-0.31%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 17, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF – Bearish Flag formation warrants more downside below 0.7790

USD/CHF rises to near 0.7825 as Iran truce optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
US President Trump has stated multiple times that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran.
The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year.

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.15% lower at around 0.7825 during the European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.08. The DXY is close to its over six-week low of 97.83 posted on Thursday.

The hopes of an Iran truce remain firm as US President Donald Trump has stated multiple times that Tehran is eager to reach a deal soon. On Thursday, Trump said in a press briefing, “We’re very close to a deal with Iran,” while warning that military actions against Tehran would resume if a deal is not closed. Trump added that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium and surrender its plans to pursue nuclear ambitions.

On the domestic front, traders have completely pared hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) for the year, as capped oil prices due to Iran truce optimism have again anchored inflation expectations globally.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF trades lower at around 0.7825 as of writing, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7883. On the daily chart, the pair exhibits a Bearish Flag formation, which warrants the continuation of the downside trend after a period of consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 42 leans to the weak side and hints that rebounds may continue to struggle beneath overhead supply.

On the downside, the channel bottom around 0.7798 is the first line of support, and a clear move below that floor would expose a deeper retracement within the broader bearish structure defined by the longer-term downward trend line towards the March 10 low of 0.7748, followed by the February 23 low of 0.7710.

Looking up, initial resistance emerges at the channel top near 0.7850, followed by the 20-period EMA at 0.7883; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and extend the recovery towards the April 13 high of 0.7934.