The Eurozone Prelim HICP and GDP Overview
Eurostat will publish the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026 later on Thursday at 09:00 GMT.
Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to inch higher to 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, from 2.6% in March. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation is anticipated to remain consistent at 2.3% in the reported month.
The monthly Eurozone inflation and core inflation were at 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively, in March.
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted flash Eurozone GDP is projected to rise 0.2% QoQ in Q1, unchanged from the prior reading, while annual growth is seen slowing to 0.9% from 1.2%.
How could the Eurozone Prelim HICP and Q1 GDP affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair may remain flat if the HICP data come as expected. However, the pair may depreciate further as the Euro (EUR) could struggle amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave interest rates unchanged late in the day, in line with many global peers this week, while signaling that a rate hike, possibly as early as June, may be necessary to counter an energy-driven surge in consumer prices.
The EUR/USD pair could lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, which could be attributed to the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping rates unchanged but striking a more hawkish tone amid rising inflation concerns.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 8-4 on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range, marking the first instance of four dissenting votes since October 1992. The committee emphasized that “inflation remains elevated, partly due to the recent rise in global energy prices.”
Technically, the EUR/USD pair steadies after recovering daily losses, trading around 1.1680 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias. The pair is hovering around the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA barrier at 1.1700. On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
