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USD/INR boards fresh rally as oil prices remain elevated

  • The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as higher oil prices boost demand for the Greenback by Indian importers.
  • Fresh concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections have dampened the FIIs interest in the Indian stock market.
  • This week, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.50 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian Rupee

Hormuz closure keeps oil prices elevated

The uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington.

“I wouldn’t say they’re considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don’t want to get ahead of, and you’ll hear directly from the president, I’m sure, on this topic,” Leavitt said.

On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one, which it was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but “still not good enough”.

FIIs extends selling pressure in Indian stock market

In the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.

Fed seems to maintain status quo

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high of 95.20

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.

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EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8650 as markets await BoE, ECB rate decisions

  • EUR/GBP holds steady around 0.8660 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • BoE is expected to hold rates steady despite inflation risk. 
  • Markets anticipate the ECB holding the key rates on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later on Thursday. 

The BoE is likely to keep interest rates steady at 3.75% at its April policy meeting on Thursday as policymakers buy time to assess the risks stemming from the energy crunch. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in the last meeting that, given the UK’s weak labor market and a lack of corporate pricing power, there was no immediate need to change policy. 

However, a UK economist at JPMorgan pointed to strong business activity readings and expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February as underscoring the inflation risks.  “We expect the BoE to create space for a potential near-term hike, with incoming data determining whether and when it will act,” he said. 

The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on Thursday. While rates are expected to hold, markets anticipate the ECB may signal future hikes to combat persistent inflation. All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

Goldman Sachs analysts see the ECB delivering two 25 basis point (bps) rate hikes in the months ahead. The first being in June, with the next in September, in bringing the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

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Japanese Yen pares hawkish BoJ-inspired gains; USD/JPY rebounds from sub-159.00 levels

  • USD/JPY drops to a one-week low as the BoJ’s hawkish pause provides a goodish lift to the JPY.
  • Economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict cap the JPY and limit losses for the pair.
  • The US-Iran peace talks uncertainty benefit the safe-haven USD and further supports spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some intraday selling after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its policy decision and touches a one-week low earlier this Tuesday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a major part of the losses and trade around the 159.30 area, down less than 0.10% for the day during the early European session.

As was widely anticipated, the Japanese central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at the conclusion of a two-day meeting. However, the 6-3 vote split, with three BoJ board members calling for a rate hike, along with an upward revision of inflation forecasts, keeps a June or July rate hike firmly on the table. This comes on top of a fresh intervention warning from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, saying that authorities were ready to take decisive action against speculative activity, lifting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighing on the USD/JPY pair.

In the post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that real interest rates are at significantly low levels and acknowledged that the risk of inflation is significantly deviating upwards and exerting a negative impact on the economy. This, in turn, validates the hawkish outlook and remains supportive of the bid tone surrounding the JPY. However, economic concerns stemming from continued disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz cap JPY gains. This, along with a goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand, lends support to the USD/JPY pair.

Hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner’s planned visit to Pakistan. Furthermore, Trump reportedly was dissatisfied with Iran’s new proposal on resolving the war, which would set ‌aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. This, along with a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, in turn, is seen benefiting the USD’s reserve currency status, which, in turn, assists the USD/JPY pair to rebound around 35-40 pips from sub-159.00 levels.

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EUR/JPY – Price Moves below 186.50, nine-day confluence

  • EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53 signals positive, not overstretched momentum.
  • The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross slips below the ascending channel, signaling a possible bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish even as it consolidates just under the nine-day EMA, which acts as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum, and hints that dips toward the underlying averages could continue to attract buyers while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 around the lower boundary of the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.80.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may fall toward initial support, which lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.19%0.17%0.00%0.05%0.19%0.32%0.40%
EUR-0.19%-0.04%-0.22%-0.17%-0.02%0.07%0.20%
GBP-0.17%0.04%-0.17%-0.12%0.03%0.13%0.23%
JPY0.00%0.22%0.17%0.06%0.20%0.30%0.40%
CAD-0.05%0.17%0.12%-0.06%0.14%0.24%0.35%
AUD-0.19%0.02%-0.03%-0.20%-0.14%0.11%0.24%
NZD-0.32%-0.07%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.11%0.09%
CHF-0.40%-0.20%-0.23%-0.40%-0.35%-0.24%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.7850 as Fed rate decision looms

  • USD/CHF gains traction around 0.7865 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • Fed interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 
  • SNB’s Schlegel reaffirmed that the central bank is open to policy adjustments and FX interventions to curb excessive Swiss Franc strength.

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength near 0.7865 during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to the stalled US-Iran ceasefire and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. 

Plans for a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran stalled again after US President Donald Trump had cancelled plans to send a team to Pakistan for negotiations with their Iranian counterparts.

On Monday, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war, as his bottom-line demands remain the same.

The US central bank is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% on Wednesday. This may be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair before his term expires on May 15.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept the policy rate at 0%. It aims to maintain this level to make the CHF less attractive to foreign investors. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reaffirmed at the April meeting that the bank is highly willing to intervene in foreign exchange (FX) markets by buying foreign currencies to weaken the CHF and protect price stability. He added that the current policy remains expansionary to support economic activity amidst “profound uncertainty.”

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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting

  • EUR/USD edges lower as the US-Iran stalemate revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
  • Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks underpins the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing aggressive bets. This assists the EUR/USD pair to hold above the 1.1700 round-figure mark.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late March low. However, momentum oscillators are mixed and hint that upside pressure is constructive but not impulsive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is marginally positive and above its signal.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips back toward the mid-40s. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the 23.6% Fibo. and the subsequent fall warrants caution before placing positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1749 (23.6% Fibo. level), ahead of a more substantial barrier at the recent cycle high region just ahead of mid-1.1800s.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1690, with further cushions at the 50.0% level around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A deeper pullback toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would only come into view if the EUR/USD pair slips decisively below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.03%-0.22%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.12%
EUR-0.06%-0.04%-0.30%-0.02%-0.04%0.04%0.06%
GBP-0.03%0.04%-0.24%0.03%0.02%0.10%0.10%
JPY0.22%0.30%0.24%0.29%0.28%0.36%0.35%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.03%-0.29%-0.02%0.06%0.07%
AUD-0.04%0.04%-0.02%-0.28%0.02%0.09%0.12%
NZD-0.15%-0.04%-0.10%-0.36%-0.06%-0.09%-0.01%
CHF-0.12%-0.06%-0.10%-0.35%-0.07%-0.12%0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP/JPY slides to 215.25 after BoJ’s hawkish pause; downside seems limited

  • GBP/JPY retreats further from a multi-year top as the BoJ’s hawkish outlook boosts the JPY.
  • A 6-3 vote split and upward revision of inflation forecasts keep BoJ rate hike bets on the table.
  • Bets for two BoE rate hikes by late 2026 should support the GBP and limit losses for spot prices.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to its highest level since January 2008, just above the 216.00 mark touched the previous day. Spot prices touch a fresh daily low, around the 215.25 region, amid a goodish pickup in demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

As was widely expected, the Japanese central bank left the short-term interest rate unadjusted at 0.75%. The JPY, however, gains strong positive traction in reaction to a hawkish vote split, with three board members voting for a rate hike. Furthermore, the BoJ delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook amid elevated Crude Oil prices and acknowledged that the Iran war is clouding the economic growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Crude Oil volatility is feeding into FX markets and affecting the broader economy. Katayama also warned that authorities were ready to take decisive action against speculative activity, fueling intervention fears and underpinning the JPY. Moreover, a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighs on the British Pound (GBP), which contributes to the GBP/JPY pair’s intraday slide.

Any meaningful GBP downfall, however, seems elusive in the wake of rising bets for two Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes by late 2026. Furthermore, investors remain worried that Japan’s economy will come under substantial strains as the risk to energy supplies remains due to continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could support the GBP/JPY cross and help limit losses.