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Offshore Yuan Remains Near 2023 Peak Levels

The offshore yuan traded around 6.83 per dollar on Wednesday, remaining near a recent more than three-year high, as it heads into a period of expected seasonal weakness that may arrive earlier than usual this summer. Chinese firms are accelerating foreign exchange hedging ahead of a record wave of dividend payments scheduled for June through August, with mainland companies listed in Hong Kong expected to distribute nearly $70 billion in payouts. Instead of waiting closer to payout dates, many are locking in rates early due to lower cost of currency purchases and forward rates are cheaper than the spot market. Pressure on the yuan comes from renewed USโ€“China tensions, including Washingtonโ€™s sanctions on a major refiner and warnings of possible secondary sanctions on banks. Meanwhile, Chinaโ€™s blocking of Metaโ€™s acquisition of AI startup Manus, along with stricter export compliance and supply chain rules, has further contributed to a more cautious sentiment for the yuan.

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EUR/USD – Likely find direction after Fedโ€™s policy announcement

  • EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1700 ahead of the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcement.
  • Both the Fed and the ECB will likely maintain the status quo.
  • The German HICP is estimated to have grown at a stronger pace of 3% YoY in April.

The EUR/USD pairย consolidates around 1.1700, inside Tuesdayโ€™s trading range, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair has remained broadly sideways, with investors awaiting monetary policy announcements by theย Federal Reserveย (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to leave interestย ratesย unchanged at their current levels, and warn of upside inflation risks amid elevated energy prices due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors will pay close attention to commentaries from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB Presidentย Christine Lagardeย to get cues about whether their respective central banks are discussing the need to tighten monetary conditions in the near term.

Ahead of the Fed-ECB policy announcement, investors will focus on the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that the German inflation accelerated to 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.7% in March.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1700 as of writing. The pair reflects a sideways trend as it remains sticky to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1698, but stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to sustain above 60.00 for longer, which indicates loss of upside momentum, but the upside bias remains intact.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0%ย Fibonacciย retracement near 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% retracement around 1.1825, with further hurdles at 1.1938 and the cycle high near 1.2082. Looking down, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666 is the initial support; a break below that area would expose deeper supports at the 23.6% level near 1.1567 and the structural floor around 1.1408.

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EUR/JPY remains subdued below 187.00 as risk-off sentiment weighs on Euro

  • EUR/JPY falls as the Euro weakens amid rising risk aversion over uncertainty surrounding a potential Middle East ceasefire.
  • US officials say President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
  • JPY remains firm amid BoJ rate-hike expectations and speculation about intervention to limit further currency weakness.

EUR/JPY edges lower after three days of gains, trading around 186.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross declines asย the Euroย (EUR) struggles amid heightenedย risk aversionย driven by uncertainty over a potential ceasefire in the Middle East.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US officials said President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The report noted that Trump chose to keep pressuring Iranโ€™s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports. Sources added that he viewed alternative options, such as resuming bombing or disengaging from the conflict, as riskier than maintaining the blockade.

Traders turn their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, where markets expect a โ€œhawkish holdโ€ as policymakers weigh potential rate hikes in June or July. Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate two 25 basis point hikes in the coming months, starting in June and followed by another in September, which would lift the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

The EUR/JPY cross remains under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays firm amid expectations of a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan, alongside speculation that authorities may intervene to curb further yen weakness.

However, the JPY has struggled to attract sustained buying interest despite the BoJโ€™s hawkish pause on Tuesday. Notably, three of the nine policy board members backed a rate hike, highlighting growing concern over inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict.

BoJ Governor Kazuoย Uedaย reaffirmed the central bankโ€™s commitment to gradual policy tightening, signaling that interestย ratesย could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the Yen.

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Canadian Dollar consolidates vs USD as traders keenly await BoC/FOMC rate decisions

  • USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on the overnight recovery gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
  • The US-Iran statement benefits the safe-haven USD, while bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie.
  • Traders also seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoC/FOMC decisions.

Theย USD/CADย pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 1.3700 mark, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid a combination of diverging forces. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks continues to benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and supports spot prices. However, bullish Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the currency pair.

Hopes for a revival of US-Iran peace talks receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy’s planned visit to Pakistan. Furthermore, media reports suggest that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s new proposal on resolving the war and reopening the strategic waterway, but would set โ€Œaside discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and continues to benefit the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran’s restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, aimed at forcing Tehran to dismantle its entire nuclear program. This keeps Crude Oil prices elevated near the highest level in over two weeks and keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of key central bank events. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its policy decision later during the North American session, and will be followed by the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants will look for fresh cues about the central banks’ future policy path, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and determine the next leg of a directional move.

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GBP/USD – Hovers around nine-day EMA near 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may appreciate toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

However,ย the GBP/USD pairย maintains a modest bullish bias as it holds above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The clustering of these averages below the spot suggests a supportive backdrop after the recent advance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 hints at positive but not overextended momentum, leaving room for further gains while the pair remains under nearby resistance.

The GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3510. aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.3509. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3440. A successful break below this confluence support zone would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.03%-0.02%-0.01%0.11%0.14%-0.11%
EUR0.02%-0.03%0.02%0.00%0.11%0.18%-0.08%
GBP0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.13%0.18%-0.07%
JPY0.02%-0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.13%0.18%-0.04%
CAD0.01%-0.00%-0.02%0.01%0.14%0.18%-0.07%
AUD-0.11%-0.11%-0.13%-0.13%-0.14%0.05%-0.25%
NZD-0.14%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.18%-0.05%-0.26%
CHF0.11%0.08%0.07%0.04%0.07%0.25%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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HeroPress: The Hero of HeroPress and quiet art of walking with people

Pull Quote: A hero is someone who shows up when someone needs you to, to listen without agenda, to celebrate people as they are rather than as you wish they were.

What is a hero? Who is a hero?

Growing up in the 80s, the answer was obvious. A hero was the figure who strode across cinema screens with fire in their eyes, the angry young man who fought the system with bare fists, who spoke truth to power and packed off the villains. Bold, loud, very gendered. The archetype was clear: stand with the people, defy authority, be ruthlessly honest, and win.

ยท ยท ยท

In 2015, a message arrived in my WordPress Slack. The opener was disarmingly direct:

โ€œHi, there. Do you know who I am?โ€

I replied, honestly: โ€œNope.โ€

โ€œRock on! I hope to change that. My name is Topher, and I am working on a cool WordPress project!โ€

That project was HeroPress. And just like that, Topher pulled me into an orbit I have never quite left. The orbit of planet HeroPress.

I always figured HeroPress as an archive, a living oral history of ordinary people and their relationships with WordPress. A catalog of people and their journeys through anxieties, migrations from smaller to larger worlds, their small and big wins.

By 2015, I was not any sort of angry young man. I was not raging against any machine. What possible heroism could I claim?

But Topher has always understood something more nuanced than the cinematic archetype: that the first act of speaking for others is learning how to speak for yourself. Telling your story as worthy of an audience was the first important step.

HeroPress was built on that belief. He gave people a platform and declined to editorialise. He let each voice arrive in its own register, its own cadence, its own dialect of living that story. Then he called the essayists a hero and meant it!

South Asia took to this immediately. A remarkable number of the earliest essays came from India. Topher celebrated each of them. He did not curate them into a brand. He simply made room. He also travelled to India once. The only time I met him.

Over the years that followed, Topher and I became friends in the way that only the internet makes possible and only genuine curiosity sustains. We have talked and laughed about politics, faith or lack of it, books, old computers, films, and the particular texture of a very slow dial-up internet. We became friends across seven seas.

But the thing I have heard most often from others is not about his wit or his enthusiasm, though both are abundant. It is something quieter.

Dozens of people from across the WordPress world, from India, from other countries Topher has likely never visited, have told me that when they were lost, when they were searching for a job or weathering a personal catastrophe or simply trying to find their footing, Topher had time for them. He listened. He did not solve everything. He just showed up and walked with them.

If WordPress were a world unto itself, conjured by a Tolkien-like imagination, Topher would be a great axe-wielding dwarf who simply walked with you for a while, just to make sure you were alright.

ยท ยท ยท

Two weeks ago, I co-led WordCamp Asia in Mumbai. It was one of the largest WordPress conferences ever assembled. People I had not seen in years showed up. Stories entwined together in corridors and over at the coffee and tea counters. I met several people who missed Topher being around. Several dozens of us who have written on HeroPress their stories, and several dozens more who will write them in the future.

I stood on the stage and felt the weight of an open source community that had shaped the past decade of my life.

I thought of Topher more than once. Thought how much he would have loved being in Mumbai. I missed his presence in the particular way you miss someone whose absence you notice in the middle of a moment of joy.

A few days later, Topher checked in. Asked how WordCamp Asia had gone. Asked how I had felt about it. Then, almost as an afterthought, he asked whether I would write the 300th essay for HeroPress.

Three hundred, is a number with some weight, a milestone of this great project. An essay Topher should have written himself, looking back at a decade of great conversations and the people he came across. But Topher1Kenobeโ€™s way, that is not!

He deflects the spotlight and so he handed this number to me, and I accepted. Because Topher is persuasive.

I am no longer the child who measured heroism by the arc of a punch. A hero is someone who shows up when someone needs you to, to listen without agenda, to celebrate people as they are rather than as you wish they were.

Topher has been doing this for a decade. Three hundred stories. Thousands of conversations and dozens upon dozens of friends.

So if you are reading this essay, letโ€™s raise a toast to Topher DeRosia, the Hero of HeroPress, the axe yielding dwarf who walks beside you, the friend who checks in, the man who has made more heroes than he will ever count or take credit for. He has a story.

He has hundreds of them. And every single one belongs to someone else but now also to him, which is fantastic!

The post The Hero of HeroPress and quiet art of walking with people appeared first on HeroPress.

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Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85

Facts:

The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward

Recommendation:

Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90

Opinion:

Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.

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Chart of The Day – USD/JPY with mixed reaction to cautious Bank of Japan decision. Is stagflation heading to Japan?

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations, although the reaction of the USDJPY pair to the decision appears rather mixed. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke at a press conference, explaining the reasons behind maintaining the key interest rate at 0.75% during the April meeting. Rate hikes will continue in line with developments in the economy and inflation, with particular attention paid to the impact of the situation in the Middle East. The goal remains to achieve a stable 2% inflation rate, although Japanโ€™s economic growth is expected to slow in 2026. Higher oil prices are likely to reduce corporate profits and householdsโ€™ real income, although the economy will be supported by government measures such as fuel subsidies.

Key takeaways from the BoJ conference

The situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Japanโ€™s economy is recovering moderately, although some signs of weakness are visible. Economic growth is likely to slow in fiscal year 2026 due to developments in the Middle East. Close attention must be paid to how these developments affect financial markets, FX markets, as well as Japanโ€™s economy and prices. There is also a need to carefully monitor the risk of inflation deviating significantly to the upside, which could negatively impact the economy. Real interest rates remain at very low levels. The BoJ will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation depending on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. The timing and pace of adjustments will be assessed in the context of the impact of Middle East developments and the likelihood of achieving the baseline scenario. The decision was made by a 6โ€“3 vote, with Nakagawa, Takata, and Tamura dissenting, as they proposed raising the rate to 1%.

Board membersโ€™ remarks

Tamura suggested including a statement that underlying inflation is in line with the target, while Takata proposed noting that CPI has already reached the target level. Both proposals were ultimately rejected. Additional comments Oil prices may have a stronger impact on inflation than before. The Bank needs more time to assess the effects of the Middle East situation. Underlying inflation is currently slightly below 2%. It is difficult to determine when the next rate hike will occur. Monetary policy will be conducted in a way that avoids falling โ€œbehind the curve.โ€ The decision to hold rates reflects a lower probability of the baseline scenario being realized. The dissent of three board members highlights the difficulty of conducting monetary policy under current conditions. There is no immediate need to raise rates, but they may become necessary if supply shocks generate secondary effects. The risk of rising inflation could be a reason for rate hikes, though not the only one.

BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report

Real interest rates remain very low. Underlying inflation is expected to reach levels consistent with the 2% target in the second half of fiscal 2026 and in 2027. Risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. Economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 but should moderately accelerate from 2027 onward. Rising oil prices are expected to affect both CPI and incomes.

BoJ forecasts Core CPI

  • 2026: 2.8% (previously 1.9%)
  • 2027: 2.3% (previously 2.0%)
  • 2028: 2.0%

Real GDP

  • 2026: 0.5% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2027: 0.7% (previously 0.8%)
  • 2028: 0.8%

Key risks highlighted by the BoJ

The BoJ noted that rising oil prices may now pass through more easily into the prices of goods and services than in the past. There is also a risk of stronger increases in food prices, particularly if higher raw material costs feed into production costs. The Bank pointed to the possibility of significant disruptions in global supply chains, which could materially affect the production activity of Japanese firms. The report also addressed artificial intelligence. Strong corporate investment in AI could support the global economy, but if it is not matched by profit growth, it may lead to adjustment pressures in asset markets. The BoJ also emphasized that exchange rate movements now have a greater impact on inflation than in the past, while trade policies implemented so far have partly altered the course of globalization. Medium- to long-term inflation expectations are rising moderately. USDJPY charts (H1, D1)

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5