CHF

• Easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, causing the pair to depreciate.
• The US, Iran, and Oman are expected to close an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, targeting a Wednesday announcement.
• BBH’s Elias Haddad says low Swiss inflation and a steady SNB keep weighing on the Franc, G10’s weakest currency this quarter.

USD/CHF extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.8080 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground as safe-haven demand recedes amid growing diplomatic momentum surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios reported that the United States (US), Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US aiming for a Wednesday announcement. The report also stated that the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz Strait, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, which could be extended.

However, the US Dollar could find minor support from a recovery in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield after it dipped toward 4.61% on Tuesday. That initial decline in yields was driven by falling energy prices, which helped cool inflation fears and tempered expectations of a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Schmid flags AI-driven inflation risks, backing tighter Fed stance despite resilient growth

Fed’s Schmid delivered a modestly more hawkish message than relative to the historical average, with a 7.3/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 7/10 baseline, stressing that the current policy stance is “not tight” and that tighter monetary policy is required to return inflation to the 2% target. The emphasis on AI-related investment as a fresh inflation driver, the warning that recent disinflation is too tentative to confirm an easing trend, and the view that inflation remains “too high” and “worrisome” all reinforce a bias toward further restraint even as growth and the labor market are described as resilient and roughly balanced. By highlighting the PCE gauge as the preferred inflation metric and cautioning that energy relief may be temporary, the speech leans clearly toward guarding against upside price risks rather than validating imminent rate cuts.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.96 points to 145.80, signaling a slight pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. However, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still far above the neutral 100 line, the Fed remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the marginal softening, consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading and Schmid’s focus on persistent inflation risks.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that Swiss price pressures remain very subdued, with July inflation coming in “in line with consensus.” They highlight that “headline CPI printed at 0.4% y/y vs. 0.5% in June while core CPI remained at 0.3% y/y for a fourth straight month,” reinforcing the Swiss National Bank’s assessment of only modest inflation over the forecast horizon and helping to keep the policy rate anchored at 0.00%. In this context, Elias Haddad at BBH argues that the persistently low inflation backdrop and steady SNB stance continue to weigh on the Swiss Franc, which has been the weakest G10 currency so far this quarter.

• The Swiss Franc weakens against the US Dollar amid firm Fed interest rate hike expectations.
• The US and Iran announce ceasefire 2.0 as Tehran agrees to Hormuz reopening and nuclear terms.
• Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades lower against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The USD/CHF pair rises 0.15% to near 0.8082 as a market-sentiment revival following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Swiss Franc Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump shelved planned attacks on Iran, clarifying that Tehran agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

At press time, S&P 500 futures are 0.6% higher to near 7,535, reflecting a risk-on mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 99.70.

Though the US Dollar Index is also down, it is trading higher against the Swiss Franc amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in the near term.

According to TD Securities, the strength of underlying US activity is increasingly calling into question how tight current Fed policy actually is, with the bank noting that “robust activity is also another sign that policy may not be that restrictive.” At the same time, TD Securities cautions that inflation dynamics remain critical: “If core services inflation continues to prove sticky, that would likely be enough to motivate the Fed to tighten policy,” its analysts warn, highlighting the risk that persistent price pressures in the services sector could still force additional action from the central bank.

Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 64.6% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.

This week, investors will focus on a string of US economic data, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.

• USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since June 2025, extending its advance for a sixth consecutive day.
• The Swiss Franc slips after Bloomberg reports the SNB may maintain zero interest rates through 2027.
• Markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

USD/CHF climbs to fresh highs since June 2025 on Monday after Bloomberg reported that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could keep its policy rate at zero until the end of 2027. The SNB later declined to comment on the report, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8187, extending its gains for a sixth consecutive day.

Swiss inflation remains subdued and comfortably within the SNB’s 0%-2% price-stability range. Elevated Oil prices since the US-Iran war began have increased near-term inflation risks, but the impact has been far more contained in Switzerland than in the United States.

The Bloomberg report noted that the outlook is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks, citing people familiar with the thinking inside the central bank.

Diverging monetary policy expectations keep USD/CHF tilted to the upside in the near term. While the SNB is expected to keep rates at zero, traders increasingly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates later this year to curb inflation.

The Fed announces its monetary policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, traders still price in a 33% chance of an immediate hike, while the probability of a rate increase in September stands near 81%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The wide interest-rate gap between the two countries favours the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the Greenback has also emerged as the preferred safe-haven currency during the US-Iran war, while the SNB’s readiness to curb excessive strength in the Swiss Franc limits demand for the currency.

A temporary pause in attacks between the United States and Iran initially weighed on the US Dollar earlier in the day. However, the optimism faded as the prospects of a peace agreement appear slim.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.47, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12.

• USD/CHF falls as easing US-Iran tensions weaken the US Dollar following a weekend pause in hostilities.
• The Fed will likely hold rates steady in July before potential September hikes.
• Falling Swiss 10-year bond yields, now near 0.46%, could weigh on the Swiss Franc.

USD/CHF depreciates after five days of losses, trading around 0.8150 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) declines on easing geopolitical tensions following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran, offering a reprieve after 13 days of escalating conflict.

US halted strikes amid growing concerns over depleting interceptor supplies and a shrinking list of remaining targets within Iran. Additionally, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly cautioned President Trump on Friday that continuing the military campaign would severely strain critical munitions reserves.

However, market participants remain cautious about potential supply disruptions after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities along the Red Sea.

Traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday before resuming rate hikes in September, though a minority of market participants still anticipate a surprise move at this week’s meeting. Moving forward, investors are closely watching upcoming economic indicators, including advance Q2 GDP data, PCE inflation figures, and earnings reports from major US corporations, for further insight into the underlying strength of the economy.

The USD/CHF pair could rebound as falling Swiss government bond yields may weigh on the Swiss Franc (CHF). With the 10-year Swiss yield dropping near 0.46%, reduced returns on domestic fixed-income assets are prompting global investors to rotate capital toward higher-yielding foreign bonds.

• USD/CHF as safe-haven dollar demand grew amid US-Iran tensions.
• The CME FedWatch Tool shows September Fed rate hike odds rose to 64.2%, up from 57.8% a day earlier.
• Rising geopolitical risks pushed the SNB to reiterate FX interventions to curb a surging franc and safeguard price stability.

USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8110 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising safe-haven demand amid ongoing hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran, which drove oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets price in 64.2% odds of a September Fed rate hike, compared to 57.8% a day earlier. In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials have entered their traditional blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely anticipated to hold the federal funds rate steady.

US attacks on Iran continued for a tenth straight day. The ongoing campaign has coincided with continued retaliatory strikes from Tehran against neighboring countries, further escalating instability across the region.

Although the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a stable medium-term inflation outlook, recent meeting minutes reveal growing caution among policymakers. Escalating geopolitical tensions have increased short-term inflation risks, leading the SNB to reaffirm its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to curb excessive franc appreciation and safeguard price stability. Investors now turn their attention to June’s Trade Balance data, scheduled for release later in the day.

• USD/CHF slips as SNB Minutes showed cautious policymakers, boosting safe-haven Swiss Franc demand.
• The US Dollar falls despite escalating hostilities between Washington and Tehran, as traders focus on softer domestic economic data instead.
• CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets price in a 61.4% probability of a rate hike in September.

USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8070 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support ahead of the release of Trade Balance data for June.

While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains that its medium-term inflation outlook remains largely unchanged, recent Meeting Minutes show that policymakers are growing cautious. Rising geopolitical tensions have heightened near-term inflation risks, prompting the SNB to reiterate its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the franc from overappreciating and to protect price stability.

The USD/CHF pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines despite escalating hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran. The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region’s narrow waterways.

The Greenback struggles as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, though market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 61.4% probability of a rate hike in September.

Hammack flags broad-based inflation pressures, reinforcing hawkish Fed tone

Fed’s Hammack delivers a more hawkish-than-usual message, with a 7.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing above the 6.6/10 historical average and emphasizing that persistently high inflation is the “bigger concern.” The focus on businesses calling for action to curb inflation and consumers “who can’t make ends meet” underscores mounting political and social pressure for tighter policy, even as Hammack acknowledges solid growth and stable consumer spending. References to energy, supply chains, insurance, and AI data center investment as drivers of broad-based price pressures point to a Fed bias toward keeping policy restrictive for longer, which is supportive for the Dollar on balance.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index has risen by 2.06 points to 128.64, signaling a clear move deeper into hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 line. In combination with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score, this suggests that Fed communication today tilts toward sustained vigilance on inflation, limiting near-term prospects for aggressive rate cuts and underpinning the Dollar against peers.

• USD/CHF remains stronger as the US Dollar recovers, fueled by safe-haven buying and prolonged high Fed rates.
• June CPI and PPI reports fell below market expectations, temporarily easing immediate fears of further rate hikes.
• Swiss Franc safe-haven demand, fueled by oil supply disruptions and rising inflation fears, points to further downside for USD/CHF.

USD/CHF inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in positive territory and trading around 0.8060 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its daily losses amid rising risk aversion, which could be attributed to United States (US)-Iran tensions boosting oil prices and sparking fresh inflation concerns. This geopolitical friction threatens to prolong the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) higher interest rate environment.

The Guardian reported that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched another wave of strikes as part of a concerted effort to keep the critical Strait of Hormuz open. In a direct escalation of hostilities, CENTCOM confirmed that US aircraft fired missiles into an oil tanker’s smokestack within the strategic passage, effectively disabling the vessel and keeping global markets on edge.

Amid this escalating conflict in the Middle East, traders are closely assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook in light of recently softened US inflation data. Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3.5% in June from the three-year high of 4.2% set in May, coming in well below the market expectation of 3.8%. This weaker consumer inflation data initially helped reduce immediate concerns that the Fed would soon raise interest rates.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets scaled back expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with the implied probability falling to around 44% from 50% just a day earlier. However, because the interim US-Iran peace agreement reached last month has effectively unraveled, June’s inflation data does not yet capture the economic impact of this latest military escalation between the US and Iran.

Further supporting this cooling trend, Wednesday’s data showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 5.5% on a yearly basis in June, down from 6% in May and below the market expectation of 6.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI dropped by 0.3%, a notable shift from the 0.6% increase recorded in May and an improvement compared to analysts’ estimates of no change.

The USD/CHF pair faces further downside as rising inflation fears, triggered by oil supply disruptions, fuel safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its policy rate at 0%. The central bank reconfirmed its readiness to step into the foreign exchange markets to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc and shield the economy from imported inflation.