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EUR/JPY Holds steady but maintains bullish bias above 100-day EMA support

  • EUR/JPY trades on a flat note around 184.35 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps the positive vibe above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is seen at 183.70; the first upside barrier emerges at 185.80. 

The EUR/JPY cross holds steady near 184.35 during the early European session on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Japanese Yen (JPY).

On the other hand, the hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB) could underpin the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. Markets are now pricing in 2–3 interest rate hikes for 2026 due to surging energy-driven inflation, a significant shift from previous expectations of holding rates.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 182.10 and continues to respect a sequence of higher closes over recent sessions. The pair also trades comfortably above the Bollinger middle band around 183.70, indicating that dips are being absorbed within an ongoing uptrend rather than signalling a reversal. RSI at 55.22 stays above its midline and trends higher, confirming positive momentum but without overbought conditions.

Initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 183.70, followed by the psychological 183.00 area, while the 100-day EMA near 182.10 forms a deeper support level that underpins the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance sits near the recent upper-Bollinger proximity around 185.80, with a sustained break opening room toward the 186.30 region. As long as EUR/JPY holds above 183.00 on a daily closing basis, the path of least resistance points to further tests of the 185.80–186.30 resistance band.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 1.1530 in countdown to Trump’s deadline

  • EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1530 while investors remain uncertain over Iran’s final decision to the US proposal.
  • Iran calls on US President Trump to surrender or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age.
  • The US FOMC minutes of the March policy meeting will be released on Wednesday.

The EUR/USD pair ticks marginally lower around 1.1530 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but is broadly sideways, wobbling inside Monday’s trading range. The major currency pair consolidates while investors await Iran’s final decision on the ceasefire proposal by the United States (US), which has a deadline of Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.10.

Ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline, an advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age, emphasizing that Tehran will not back down. He called Trump’s threats “delusional” and added that they won’t make up for the “disgrace and humiliation” of the US in the region.

On the domestic front, investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1530 in the opening trade on Tuesday. Price sits marginally below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1560, keeping the short-term tone mildly bearish as the pair struggles to reclaim that dynamic cap.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-40s, showing negative but not extreme momentum, consistent with a market leaning lower inside a broader consolidation. A downward-sloping resistance trend line from around 1.1660 continues to limit rebounds, while the recent sequence of lower closes under that line confirms sellers retain the near-term advantage.

Initial resistance is now located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1560, with a break above exposing the descending trend-line barrier near 1.1600 and then the March 10 high at 1.1666. On the downside, the rising support trend line coming from the 1.1410 region underpins the market around 1.1470, with a daily close below that level opening the way toward 1.1410 as the next support. As long as the pair trades below 1.1600, rallies are likely to meet selling interest, keeping focus on whether the 1.1470–1.1410 support band can contain the current bearish pressure.

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EUR/GBP – Supported by converging SMAs but capped below 0.8750

  • EUR/GBP edges lower as diplomatic efforts to end the US–Iran war lift sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies.
  • GBP shows relative strength against the Euro, keeping the cross under pressure near recent highs.
  • Technically, EUR/GBP maintains a mildly bullish bias while holding above key moving averages, with RSI and MACD in positive territory.

EUR/GBP trades with a negative bias on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies, with the British Pound (GBP) relatively outperforming the Euro (EUR).

At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8720, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and remains confined near the upper end of last week’s range.

According to Axios, the United States and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could help end the war. Separately, Reuters reported that both sides have received a proposal for a two-step deal, starting with a ceasefire followed by broader negotiations, which could come into effect as early as Monday and include reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP shows a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot holds just above the flat 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8686, while the 100-day SMA around 0.8709 and the 200-day SMA near 0.8701 converge just below current levels, forming a tentative support cluster that could cap downside attempts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 signals firm but not stretched upside momentum, consistent with a grind higher rather than a sharp breakout. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line in marginally positive territory, and the modestly positive histogram reinforces a controlled bullish tone rather than an aggressive trend.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.8750, and a break above this level would strengthen the bullish case, opening the door toward the March swing high at 0.8789, close to the 0.8800 psychological mark.

On the downside, initial support is seen in the 0.8686-0.8708 moving average cluster. A break below this zone could weaken the near-term structure and expose the 0.8650 level, with further downside opening toward the 0.8600 psychological mark.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.32%-0.38%-0.14%-0.27%-0.48%-0.51%-0.33%
EUR0.32%-0.04%0.15%0.05%-0.17%-0.21%-0.03%
GBP0.38%0.04%0.19%0.07%-0.12%-0.18%0.03%
JPY0.14%-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.34%-0.39%-0.20%
CAD0.27%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%-0.20%-0.24%-0.06%
AUD0.48%0.17%0.12%0.34%0.20%-0.06%0.15%
NZD0.51%0.21%0.18%0.39%0.24%0.06%0.21%
CHF0.33%0.03%-0.03%0.20%0.06%-0.15%-0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price – Symmetrical Triangle formation near bottom triggers reversal hopes

  • EUR/USD rises to near 1.1560 as Iran’s confirmation of receiving the US ceasefire proposal has improved the market mood.
  • The USD Index slides below 100.00 as its safe-haven demand diminishes.
  • Iran clarifies that it won’t reopen Hormuz in exchange of temporary ceasefire.

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.4% higher to near 1.1560 during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as market sentiment turns favorable toward riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR), following confirmation from Iran that it has received the United States’ (US) ceasefire proposal through Pakistan.

An improvement in investors’ risk appetite has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD). During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down almost 0.4% to near 99.80. The USD Index was steady above 100.00 in the Asian trade.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.34%-0.38%-0.16%-0.19%-0.48%-0.53%-0.31%
EUR0.34%-0.02%0.15%0.16%-0.16%-0.18%0.00%
GBP0.38%0.02%0.17%0.15%-0.12%-0.18%0.05%
JPY0.16%-0.15%-0.17%-0.01%-0.32%-0.38%-0.16%
CAD0.19%-0.16%-0.15%0.00%-0.28%-0.35%-0.12%
AUD0.48%0.16%0.12%0.32%0.28%-0.07%0.17%
NZD0.53%0.18%0.18%0.38%0.35%0.07%0.24%
CHF0.31%-0.01%-0.05%0.16%0.12%-0.17%-0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Though Iran has acknowledged the receipt of the ceasefire proposal, it has clarified that there will be no acceptance of the proposal under pressure or deadlines. Tehran has also stated that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to 20% of global oil supply, in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive at 55.0, lower than the previous reading of 56.1.

This week, major highlights will be the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1560 at the press time. The pair sits just below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1570, keeping a mild bearish bias in place while price remains capped beneath this dynamic barrier. A symmetrical triangle formation on the bottom level suggests that the broader trend has turned sideways, and a bullish reversal could be around the corner.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) range shift move into the 40.00-60.00 zone from territory below 40.00 signifies cooling upside momentum, with bullish bias remaining in place.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA around 1.1570, followed by the descending trend-line region near 1.1600, where repeated failures have formed a tight cap on the upside. A close above that zone would weaken the bearish stance and open the way toward 1.1660. On the downside, immediate support is located at the rising trend line from 1.1408, now intersecting around 1.1500, with a break there exposing the late-1.14 area as the next bearish target. A sustained move below 1.1450 would confirm a deeper downside extension within the prevailing daily downtrend towards the March low at 1.1411.

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EUR/GBP eases to levels near 0.8700 amid mild risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP retreats towards 0.8700 but remains within the previous days’ ranges.
  • The Euro remains near one-month highs after rallying more thn 1% over the last three weeks.
  • ECB-BoE monetary policy divergence is keeping EUR/GBP’s downside attempts limited.

The Euro (EUR) is trading lower against the British Pound (GBP) on a calm week opening, with most markets closed on Easter Monday, and markets wary of risk, amid greater concerns about an escalation of the war in Iran. The pair is trading at 0.8720 at the time of writing, down from session highs at 0.8735, yet still within the last few days’ trading range.

Investors are holding their breath following fresh threats by US President Donald Trump to destroy Iran’s bridges and energy plants if Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday at 8 PM.

Earlier in the day, however, a report by Axios suggested that a group of regional mediators is negotiating a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a peace deal. This has contributed to easing risk aversion somewhat, but Trump’s mixed messages on the war are keeping traders on edge.

ECB-BoE monetary divergence

From a wider perspective, the pair is consolidating near one-month highs, as the Euro has shown greater resilience than the Pound amid the month-long war in the Middle East. The higher inflationary pressures have prompted European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to suggest that a rate hike is coming, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey played down the chances of any near-term monetary tightening.

In the calendar on Monday, the main focus will be on the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index, which is likely to show the impact of the Iran war and the energy shock on institutional investors’ confidence. This reading is unlikely to provide any significant support to the common currency.

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EUR/USD inches higher above 1.1500 amid hopes on US-Iran ceasefire talks

  • EUR/USD trades with mild gains around 1.1520 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The US and Iran explore a 45-day ceasefire ahead of the deadline. 
  • ECB policymakers emphasized that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the target.   

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1520 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback amid optimism about the US-Iran ceasefire. The US March ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday. 

Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios, that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The source said that the chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low. Earlier, US President Donald Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours, posting a new deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 pm EST (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). 

Data on Friday suggested US labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. “Our concern is that with the Middle East conflict showing little sign of coming to an imminent conclusion, an overlay of heightened geopolitical, economic and market angst is not going to incentivise business to suddenly start hiring now,” said ING economist James Knightley. 

Hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could support the shared currency. The ECB has maintained a firm commitment to combating inflation. President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members have delivered consistent messages, emphasizing that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.  

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EUR/JPY remains below 184.00 as traders price in BoJ rate hike odds

  • EUR/JPY may decline further as Japanese Yen strengthens on expectations the BoJ will tighten policy in April.
  • The International Monetary Fund praised Japan’s economic resilience, backing gradual stimulus withdrawal.
  • ECB’s Lagarde and policymakers reiterated that policy will stay restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering modest losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross may extend its decline as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy in April to counter rising inflation driven by higher energy costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed the BoJ’s current path of rate hikes. Following a policy consultation on Friday, the IMF praised Japan’s economic resilience and supported a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, with inflation projected to converge toward the 2% target by 2027.

However, the JPY faced pressure as oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran. Japan remains particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports.

Trump issued a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while intensifying threats against its power plants and civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would stay closed until war damages are compensated.

Meanwhile, downside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the Euro (EUR) finds support from the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers have reiterated that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stalls below the 0.8740 resistance area

  • EUR/GBP flatlines around 0.8720 on Friday after bouncing from 0.8700 support.
  • The pair has rallied nearly 1% over the last three weeks, despite the risk-off sentiment.
  • The Euro is likely to require an additional impulse to breach resistance at 0.8740.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found support above 0.8700 earlier this week, before stalling halfway through the last few days’ range around 0.8720. Technical indicators show waning bullish momentum, while thinned market volumes suggest that further consolidation is the most likely outcome on Friday.

The Euro (EUR) remains on track for a nearly 0.5% weekly gain and is nearly 1% up over the last three weeks. The risk-averse sentiment stemming from the war in Iran has been weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Still, the positive manufacturing activity and the moderate uptick in inflation seen in the Eurozone earlier this week have provided some support to the Euro (EUR), while UK manufacturing PMI failed to convince investors.

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP’s near-term bias remains mildly bullish, although technical indicators point to a weakening momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index at 58 stays above its midline, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips marginally below the zero line, and the MACD line has crossed below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.

Bears will have to breach Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s lows, at 0.8705 and 0.8676, respectively, to undermine the near-term bullish structure and expose the 0.8630-08635 area, which provided support to the pair on March 23, 24, and 26.

On the upside, bulls are likely to require additional impulse to break resistance at the 0.8740 area (March 3 and April 1 highs), and shift the focus to the key area between 0.8790 and 0.8800, which capped bulls several times in December and early March

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.11%0.00%0.01%-0.12%0.13%-0.08%
EUR0.02%-0.06%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.13%-0.06%
GBP0.11%0.06%0.11%0.08%0.11%0.20%-0.00%
JPY0.00%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.01%0.10%-0.11%
CAD-0.01%-0.03%-0.08%-0.00%-0.01%0.12%-0.09%
AUD0.12%-0.01%-0.11%0.01%0.00%0.12%-0.09%
NZD-0.13%-0.13%-0.20%-0.10%-0.12%-0.12%-0.21%
CHF0.08%0.06%0.00%0.11%0.09%0.09%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).