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EUR/JPY remains below 184.00 as traders price in BoJ rate hike odds

  • EUR/JPY may decline further as Japanese Yen strengthens on expectations the BoJ will tighten policy in April.
  • The International Monetary Fund praised Japan’s economic resilience, backing gradual stimulus withdrawal.
  • ECB’s Lagarde and policymakers reiterated that policy will stay restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

EUR/JPY moves little after registering modest losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross may extend its decline as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy in April to counter rising inflation driven by higher energy costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed the BoJ’s current path of rate hikes. Following a policy consultation on Friday, the IMF praised Japan’s economic resilience and supported a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, with inflation projected to converge toward the 2% target by 2027.

However, the JPY faced pressure as oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran. Japan remains particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports.

Trump issued a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while intensifying threats against its power plants and civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would stay closed until war damages are compensated.

Meanwhile, downside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the Euro (EUR) finds support from the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers have reiterated that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stalls below the 0.8740 resistance area

  • EUR/GBP flatlines around 0.8720 on Friday after bouncing from 0.8700 support.
  • The pair has rallied nearly 1% over the last three weeks, despite the risk-off sentiment.
  • The Euro is likely to require an additional impulse to breach resistance at 0.8740.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found support above 0.8700 earlier this week, before stalling halfway through the last few days’ range around 0.8720. Technical indicators show waning bullish momentum, while thinned market volumes suggest that further consolidation is the most likely outcome on Friday.

The Euro (EUR) remains on track for a nearly 0.5% weekly gain and is nearly 1% up over the last three weeks. The risk-averse sentiment stemming from the war in Iran has been weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Still, the positive manufacturing activity and the moderate uptick in inflation seen in the Eurozone earlier this week have provided some support to the Euro (EUR), while UK manufacturing PMI failed to convince investors.

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP’s near-term bias remains mildly bullish, although technical indicators point to a weakening momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index at 58 stays above its midline, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips marginally below the zero line, and the MACD line has crossed below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.

Bears will have to breach Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s lows, at 0.8705 and 0.8676, respectively, to undermine the near-term bullish structure and expose the 0.8630-08635 area, which provided support to the pair on March 23, 24, and 26.

On the upside, bulls are likely to require additional impulse to break resistance at the 0.8740 area (March 3 and April 1 highs), and shift the focus to the key area between 0.8790 and 0.8800, which capped bulls several times in December and early March

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.11%0.00%0.01%-0.12%0.13%-0.08%
EUR0.02%-0.06%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.13%-0.06%
GBP0.11%0.06%0.11%0.08%0.11%0.20%-0.00%
JPY0.00%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.01%0.10%-0.11%
CAD-0.01%-0.03%-0.08%-0.00%-0.01%0.12%-0.09%
AUD0.12%-0.01%-0.11%0.01%0.00%0.12%-0.09%
NZD-0.13%-0.13%-0.20%-0.10%-0.12%-0.12%-0.21%
CHF0.08%0.06%0.00%0.11%0.09%0.09%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Gathers strength to near 184.00, bullish bias persists above 100-day EMA

  • EUR/JPY edges higher to near 184.15 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is located at 183.50; the first upside barrier emerges at 184.80. 

The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength around 184.15 during the early European session on Friday. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers provide some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank’s next interest rate move will very likely be an increase, although it is still ‌too early to say when it will start hiking. 

On the other hand, escalations in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven demand, supporting the JPY. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 182.10 and consolidates just under the upper Bollinger Band, indicating sustained upside pressure after the recent advance. The Bollinger middle band around 183.50 now tracks below spot and acts as dynamic trend support, while the latest RSI reading just above 54 confirms positive, but not overextended, momentum consistent with a grinding uptrend rather than a climax move.

Immediate support emerges at the 183.50 Bollinger middle band, followed by the 182.50–182.10 area where recent lows converge with the 100-day EMA. A break below this zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement toward 181.50. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the recent upper Bollinger Band region around 184.80, with a daily close above this threshold opening the door toward the 186.00 area where prior band highs cluster and upside risk would intensify.

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EUR/USD – Remains below nine-day EMA near 1.1550

  • EUR/USD may fall toward the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 45 signals subdued momentum.
  • The pair tests the immediate barrier at the upper descending channel boundary near the nine-day EMA at 1.1544.

EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.1540 during Asian hours on Friday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential bullish reversal as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.

However, the near-term bias stays mildly bearish as price holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap recovery attempts and confirm a prevailing downside tone. The short-term average trades under the longer one and flattens, signalling a lack of bullish follow-through after recent rebounds.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator around 45 keeps momentum on the soft side, showing sellers retain a slight advantage without reaching oversold extremes.

The EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13. Further declines would put downward pressure on the pair to test the descending channel around 1.1250.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair is testing the immediate resistance at the upper descending channel boundary around the nine-day EMA at 1.1544. A break above the channel would strengthen the market bias and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.1637. Further advances would open the doors for the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, which was recorded on January 27.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.04%-0.06%-0.05%0.03%-0.07%0.15%-0.02%
EUR-0.04%-0.05%-0.07%-0.01%0.02%0.10%-0.05%
GBP0.06%0.05%0.00%0.06%0.10%0.17%0.00%
JPY0.05%0.07%0.00%0.06%0.08%0.17%-0.00%
CAD-0.03%0.00%-0.06%-0.06%0.03%0.12%-0.04%
AUD0.07%-0.02%-0.10%-0.08%-0.03%0.08%-0.08%
NZD-0.15%-0.10%-0.17%-0.17%-0.12%-0.08%-0.17%
CHF0.02%0.05%-0.00%0.00%0.04%0.08%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts:

  • The EUR/USD exchange rate failed to close above the 200-day EMA on yesterday’s daily candle
  • The price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA)

Recommendation: 

Trade: Short position on the EUR/USD pair at market price

Take Profit 1: 1.14425

Take Profit 2: 1.14115

Stop: 1.16360
 

Opinion:

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair remains in a structural downtrend, which is a key argument for maintaining short positions.  The price consistently remains below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which form dynamic resistance and confirm the dominance of supply over demand in the medium term. Prices are moving within a bearish flag pattern (a trend continuation pattern), and current attempts at a rebound are being stifled by successive resistance levels marked by the downward-sloping EMAs, which technically indicates further potential for the euro-dollar exchange rate to depreciate.

An additional and significant catalyst for the dollar’s strengthening is the escalation of the armed conflict in the Middle East, directly driven by the Trump administration’s actions.  In his Wednesday address to the nation, the president announced that within the next 2–3 weeks, the United States would strike Iran “extremely hard,” promising simultaneous attacks on all Iranian power plants, which—as Trump stated—“will set the country back to the Stone Age.” The escalation of the military operation codenamed “Operation Epic Fury” is generating a classic flight-to-safety effect—primarily toward the dollar—which, combined with the euro-dollar’s technical weakness, creates a consistent environment conducive to the continuation of the downward trend in the EURUSD pair

Methodology and assumptions:
This recommendation is based on a technical analysis of the EURUSD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyze the trend. The target level—take profit 1—was set at the level of previous price reactions, using price action methodology. Take profit 2, on the other hand, is based on the location of last month’s local low. The protective stop-loss order was set above the most recent local high using price action methodology.

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stands tall above 0.8700 in risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP maintains its near-term bullish trend intact, with 0.8700 support capping bears.
  • Upbeat Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support to the Euro on Wednesday.
  • The pair is likely to meet significant resistance at the 0.8740-0.8750 area.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found buyers right above 0.08700 on Wednesday, and the pair has trimmed losses on Thursday, returning to the 0.8720 area at the time of writing.

The Euro (EUR) seems to be faring better than the British Pound (GBP) amid the risk-averse market mood, and keeps the bullish bias from mid-March lows intact. The positive Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support for the common currency on Wednesday, while UK factory activity failed to convince investors.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at the 0.8740-08750 area

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP


The 4-hour chart shows EUR/GBP trading at 0.8724 amid a mildly bullish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index stays above 60, indicating sustained upside momentum, although the bearish cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line suggests that upside pressure might be fading.

The pair is likely to require some extra impulse to extend its rally beyond the resistance area between 0.8740, where bulls were capped on March 3, 31, and April 1, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the early March reversal, at 0.8752. A confirmation above these levels would bring the year-to-date high, at the 0.8790 area, back to the focus.

To the downside, bears would need to breach Wednesday’s low, at 0.8704, and the March 31 low, at 0.8676, to negate the bullish view.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.51%0.71%0.49%0.25%0.64%0.63%0.63%
EUR-0.51%0.21%-0.04%-0.28%0.15%0.14%0.09%
GBP-0.71%-0.21%-0.23%-0.48%-0.05%-0.05%-0.12%
JPY-0.49%0.04%0.23%-0.24%0.15%0.14%0.10%
CAD-0.25%0.28%0.48%0.24%0.39%0.38%0.34%
AUD-0.64%-0.15%0.05%-0.15%-0.39%-0.01%-0.08%
NZD-0.63%-0.14%0.05%-0.14%-0.38%0.01%-0.05%
CHF-0.63%-0.09%0.12%-0.10%-0.34%0.08%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

41, with a break higher exposing 0.8800 and then 0.8863. On the downside, initial support comes in at 0.8705, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8721 turning into a pivot area if broken, while the 38.2% retracement at 0.8680 aligns with prior price congestion as the next key floor. A deeper pullback would bring 0.8677 into view, where a failure to hold would signal that the current bullish phase is losing traction.

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Euro Dips as Trump’s Address Fuels Middle East Uncertainty

The euro retreated toward $1.15 as investor caution returned following President Donald Trump’s prime-time address, which offered no clear timeline for resolving the Middle East conflict. While Trump stated that the US operation was nearing completion, he also vowed more aggressive measures, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks.

The absence of new justifications for the war further dampened market confidence. Amid persistent uncertainty and growing inflation fears, markets are revisiting expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy direction. Investors now foresee three interest rate hikes in 2026, an increase from the two anticipated just yesterday. Before the conflict, expectations had leaned toward no hikes at all, with some even speculating about potential monetary easing.

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EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support after easing below 184.00

  • EUR/JPY may encounter initial resistance near 184.70 at the upper ascending triangle boundary.
  • The Relative Strength Index near 52 indicates steady momentum.
  • Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 183.80.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross is moving sideways within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating consolidation. However, the structure reflects rising support levels meeting a relatively flat resistance zone, signaling building pressure that could lead to a breakout. A sustained move above resistance would confirm bullish continuation.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the nine-day EMA tracks just beneath spot, reinforcing a shallow upward slope. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 stays above its midline and confirms steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum, with recent pullbacks finding demand before the medium-term average.

The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance around the upper ascending triangle boundary at 184.70. A successful break above this triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 183.39. Further support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.80. A break below the channel would expose a nearly four-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.46%0.55%0.37%0.28%0.72%0.71%0.53%
EUR-0.46%0.09%-0.11%-0.21%0.27%0.26%0.06%
GBP-0.55%-0.09%-0.19%-0.28%0.18%0.19%-0.03%
JPY-0.37%0.11%0.19%-0.10%0.35%0.34%0.15%
CAD-0.28%0.21%0.28%0.10%0.45%0.43%0.25%
AUD-0.72%-0.27%-0.18%-0.35%-0.45%-0.01%-0.23%
NZD-0.71%-0.26%-0.19%-0.34%-0.43%0.00%-0.20%
CHF-0.53%-0.06%0.03%-0.15%-0.25%0.23%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).