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Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts:

  • The EUR/USD exchange rate failed to close above the 200-day EMA on yesterday’s daily candle
  • The price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA)

Recommendation: 

Trade: Short position on the EUR/USD pair at market price

Take Profit 1: 1.14425

Take Profit 2: 1.14115

Stop: 1.16360
 

Opinion:

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair remains in a structural downtrend, which is a key argument for maintaining short positions.  The price consistently remains below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which form dynamic resistance and confirm the dominance of supply over demand in the medium term. Prices are moving within a bearish flag pattern (a trend continuation pattern), and current attempts at a rebound are being stifled by successive resistance levels marked by the downward-sloping EMAs, which technically indicates further potential for the euro-dollar exchange rate to depreciate.

An additional and significant catalyst for the dollar’s strengthening is the escalation of the armed conflict in the Middle East, directly driven by the Trump administration’s actions.  In his Wednesday address to the nation, the president announced that within the next 2–3 weeks, the United States would strike Iran “extremely hard,” promising simultaneous attacks on all Iranian power plants, which—as Trump stated—“will set the country back to the Stone Age.” The escalation of the military operation codenamed “Operation Epic Fury” is generating a classic flight-to-safety effect—primarily toward the dollar—which, combined with the euro-dollar’s technical weakness, creates a consistent environment conducive to the continuation of the downward trend in the EURUSD pair

Methodology and assumptions:
This recommendation is based on a technical analysis of the EURUSD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyze the trend. The target level—take profit 1—was set at the level of previous price reactions, using price action methodology. Take profit 2, on the other hand, is based on the location of last month’s local low. The protective stop-loss order was set above the most recent local high using price action methodology.

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stands tall above 0.8700 in risk-off markets

  • EUR/GBP maintains its near-term bullish trend intact, with 0.8700 support capping bears.
  • Upbeat Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support to the Euro on Wednesday.
  • The pair is likely to meet significant resistance at the 0.8740-0.8750 area.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found buyers right above 0.08700 on Wednesday, and the pair has trimmed losses on Thursday, returning to the 0.8720 area at the time of writing.

The Euro (EUR) seems to be faring better than the British Pound (GBP) amid the risk-averse market mood, and keeps the bullish bias from mid-March lows intact. The positive Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support for the common currency on Wednesday, while UK factory activity failed to convince investors.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at the 0.8740-08750 area

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP


The 4-hour chart shows EUR/GBP trading at 0.8724 amid a mildly bullish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index stays above 60, indicating sustained upside momentum, although the bearish cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line suggests that upside pressure might be fading.

The pair is likely to require some extra impulse to extend its rally beyond the resistance area between 0.8740, where bulls were capped on March 3, 31, and April 1, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the early March reversal, at 0.8752. A confirmation above these levels would bring the year-to-date high, at the 0.8790 area, back to the focus.

To the downside, bears would need to breach Wednesday’s low, at 0.8704, and the March 31 low, at 0.8676, to negate the bullish view.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.51%0.71%0.49%0.25%0.64%0.63%0.63%
EUR-0.51%0.21%-0.04%-0.28%0.15%0.14%0.09%
GBP-0.71%-0.21%-0.23%-0.48%-0.05%-0.05%-0.12%
JPY-0.49%0.04%0.23%-0.24%0.15%0.14%0.10%
CAD-0.25%0.28%0.48%0.24%0.39%0.38%0.34%
AUD-0.64%-0.15%0.05%-0.15%-0.39%-0.01%-0.08%
NZD-0.63%-0.14%0.05%-0.14%-0.38%0.01%-0.05%
CHF-0.63%-0.09%0.12%-0.10%-0.34%0.08%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

41, with a break higher exposing 0.8800 and then 0.8863. On the downside, initial support comes in at 0.8705, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8721 turning into a pivot area if broken, while the 38.2% retracement at 0.8680 aligns with prior price congestion as the next key floor. A deeper pullback would bring 0.8677 into view, where a failure to hold would signal that the current bullish phase is losing traction.

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Euro Dips as Trump’s Address Fuels Middle East Uncertainty

The euro retreated toward $1.15 as investor caution returned following President Donald Trump’s prime-time address, which offered no clear timeline for resolving the Middle East conflict. While Trump stated that the US operation was nearing completion, he also vowed more aggressive measures, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks.

The absence of new justifications for the war further dampened market confidence. Amid persistent uncertainty and growing inflation fears, markets are revisiting expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy direction. Investors now foresee three interest rate hikes in 2026, an increase from the two anticipated just yesterday. Before the conflict, expectations had leaned toward no hikes at all, with some even speculating about potential monetary easing.

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EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support after easing below 184.00

  • EUR/JPY may encounter initial resistance near 184.70 at the upper ascending triangle boundary.
  • The Relative Strength Index near 52 indicates steady momentum.
  • Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 183.80.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross is moving sideways within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating consolidation. However, the structure reflects rising support levels meeting a relatively flat resistance zone, signaling building pressure that could lead to a breakout. A sustained move above resistance would confirm bullish continuation.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the nine-day EMA tracks just beneath spot, reinforcing a shallow upward slope. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 stays above its midline and confirms steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum, with recent pullbacks finding demand before the medium-term average.

The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance around the upper ascending triangle boundary at 184.70. A successful break above this triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 183.39. Further support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.80. A break below the channel would expose a nearly four-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.46%0.55%0.37%0.28%0.72%0.71%0.53%
EUR-0.46%0.09%-0.11%-0.21%0.27%0.26%0.06%
GBP-0.55%-0.09%-0.19%-0.28%0.18%0.19%-0.03%
JPY-0.37%0.11%0.19%-0.10%0.35%0.34%0.15%
CAD-0.28%0.21%0.28%0.10%0.45%0.43%0.25%
AUD-0.72%-0.27%-0.18%-0.35%-0.45%-0.01%-0.23%
NZD-0.71%-0.26%-0.19%-0.34%-0.43%0.00%-0.20%
CHF-0.53%-0.06%0.03%-0.15%-0.25%0.23%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Declines below 1.1550 as Trump’s Iran war update boosts USD

  • EUR/USD meets with heavy supply as USD strengthens after Trump’s Iran war update.
  • Firming Fed rate hike bets further benefit the USD and back the case for deeper losses.
  • The intraday failure near the 200-period EMA on the H4 validates the negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days, reaching the weekly top the previous day, and attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices drop below the 1.1550 level in the last hour amid the emergence of fresh buying around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) as US President Donald Trump’s update on the Iran war dampens de-escalation hopes.

Addressing the nation, Trump threatened that Iran would be hit extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and would be brought to the Stone Age if no deal is reached. Trump further added that Iranian energy infrastructure remains a possible target, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and fueling inflationary concerns. This, in turn, bolsters bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and turns out to be another factor supporting the USD, which is seen exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the failure to find acceptance above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and a pullback from the 1.1620-1.1625 supply zone favors bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips back toward the zero line after a brief positive extension, with the histogram contracting and hinting at fading bullish momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to around 50, reinforcing a loss of directional conviction after failing to sustain overbought proximity earlier in the move.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at 1.1520, guarding the recent reaction low near 1.1485, where a break would expose the 1.1450 zone as the next downside objective. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at 1.1580 ahead of the 1.1610–1.1620 band, where prior swing highs converge with the 200-period exponential moving average to define a key barrier. A sustained move above this upper resistance zone would be needed to revive a clear bullish bias, while failure to hold 1.1520 would shift focus back toward the mid-1.1400s.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.42%0.53%0.35%0.24%0.67%0.70%0.45%
EUR-0.42%0.11%-0.09%-0.20%0.26%0.29%0.02%
GBP-0.53%-0.11%-0.19%-0.26%0.16%0.20%-0.08%
JPY-0.35%0.09%0.19%-0.10%0.32%0.35%0.10%
CAD-0.24%0.20%0.26%0.10%0.42%0.44%0.20%
AUD-0.67%-0.26%-0.16%-0.32%-0.42%0.03%-0.26%
NZD-0.70%-0.29%-0.20%-0.35%-0.44%-0.03%-0.26%
CHF-0.45%-0.02%0.08%-0.10%-0.20%0.26%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/USD edges higher as easing US-Iran tensions outweigh support from strong US data

  • EUR/USD edges higher on Wednesday as easing US-Iran tensions improve risk appetite.
  • The US Dollar Index retreats after hitting ten-month highs earlier in the week.
  • Stronger US data, including ISM PMI, ADP jobs, and Retail Sales, fails to lift the Greenback.

EUR/USD extends its advance for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, climbing to one-week highs as improving optimism around the US-Iran war lifts risk sentiment, pushing the Euro (EUR) higher and weighing on the US Dollar (USD).

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1611, up about 0.50% on the day after touching a high of 1.1623. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 99.45 after touching ten-month highs of 100.64 earlier this week.

The move comes as markets react to growing expectations that the conflict in the Middle East could wind down following recent comments from both US and Iranian leaders.

US President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, told reporters that the United States “will be leaving Iran very soon,” adding that military action could end within “two or three weeks.” His remarks came after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that Iran has the “necessary will” to end the conflict, but is seeking guarantees to ensure it does not happen again.

However, uncertainty remains elevated. Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that Iran’s leadership had requested a ceasefire, adding that Washington would consider it only if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.” He warned that until then, the US would continue military operations.

On the data front, traders showed a muted reaction to the latest US economic releases. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, beating expectations of 52.5 and improving slightly from the previous 52.4.

The ADP Employment Change rose by 62K in March, beating expectations of 40K but easing from the previous reading of 66K (revised from 63K). Meanwhile, Retail Sales increased by 0.6% in February, surpassing forecasts of 0.5% and rebounding from a revised -0.1% decline in January (previously -0.2%).

Traders also digested fresh remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) officials. St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem said US monetary policy is “currently at the low end of the neutral range” and is “well positioned,” adding that it should likely be held in place “for some time.” He noted that war-related shocks have “increased risks to the economy and inflation” and said he can see scenarios to both “raise and cut interest rates.”

ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf said the central bank is “ready to act when data clarifies the effects of the war,” warning that a prolonged conflict “would bring the ECB’s adverse scenario closer.” He added that policymakers are “not ruling anything in or out.”

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EUR/JPY Remains above 183.50 to test nine-day EMA barrier

  • EUR/JPY tests the immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 183.70.
  • The Relative Strength Index hovers near the 50 mid-line, indicating balanced momentum.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA at 183.36.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross moves sideways within the ascending triangle pattern, reflecting buying pressure.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/PY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continuing to offer a rising trend base. The nine-day EMA remains above the 50-day EMA, keeping a short-term positive alignment despite the recent consolidation under the 184.00 area.

Momentum is balanced, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering close to the 50 mid-line after recovering from last week’s dip, which points to stabilizing demand rather than aggressive buying pressure.

The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 183.70, followed by the upper ascending triangle boundary around 184.60. Further advances above the triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 183.36, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.70. A break below the channel would expose the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.09%0.10%-0.03%-0.05%0.17%-0.21%
EUR0.09%-0.01%0.18%0.06%0.05%0.28%-0.11%
GBP0.09%0.00%0.19%0.06%0.06%0.29%-0.09%
JPY-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.11%-0.10%0.09%-0.25%
CAD0.03%-0.06%-0.06%0.11%0.00%0.20%-0.18%
AUD0.05%-0.05%-0.06%0.10%-0.01%0.22%-0.15%
NZD-0.17%-0.28%-0.29%-0.09%-0.20%-0.22%-0.37%
CHF0.21%0.11%0.09%0.25%0.18%0.15%0.37%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Trades above mid-1.1500s as bulls await move beyond 61.8% Fibo.

  • EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session move up to a one-week high.
  • Inflation fears keep Fed rate hike bets in play, supporting the USD and capping the pair.
  • The mixed technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for additional gains.

The EUR/USD pair touches a one-week top on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.

Despite the optimism over hopes for an early US exit from the Iran war, reports that the UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keep geopolitical risks in play. This continues to fuel inflationary concerns and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator eases toward the signal line while remaining marginally positive, suggesting fading but still positive momentum after the advance.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 66 retreats from overbought readings above 70, indicating cooling upside pressure rather than a clear reversal at this stage. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall witnessed over the past week or so before placing fresh bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair.

A sustained break higher would open the way toward the 1.1599 barrier and then the recent swing high around 1.1641. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.1520, reinforced by the nearby 200-hour EMA to form a key demand zone. A deeper setback would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level at 1.1492, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader upswing.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 1-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD