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JPY – lower vs firmer USD on Iran tensions; intervention risks limit losses

  • USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers as Iran tensions and hawkish Fed bets revive the USD demand.
  • Reviving inflationary concerns act as a tailwind for the US bond yields, also underpinning the USD.
  • Intervention fears and expectations for a BoJ rate hike in June should help limit deeper JPY losses.

The USD/JPY pair reverses a modest Asian session dip to the 156.50-156.45 area on Monday as the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) draws support from persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Spot prices reclaim the 157.00 mark, though any meaningful upside still seems elusive in the wake of speculations that Japanese authorities might step in to prop up the domestic currency.

US President Donald Trump and Iran both rejected each other’s peace proposals for ending the war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has rejected US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years. US President Donald Trump quickly lashed out at the Iranian response, calling it “totally unacceptable.” This comes on top of renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and keeps geopolitical risks in play, underpinning the USD’s reserve currency status and offering some support to the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff triggers a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices and revives inflationary concerns. Apart from this, the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday reaffirms hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and acts as a tailwind for the US Treasury bond yields. This turns out to be another factor benefiting the USD and contributing to the bid tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, reports last week that officials intervened in the FX market during holidays in early May might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap further gains for the currency pair.

Moreover, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, had said on Thursday that Japan faces no constraints on how often it can intervene on currency markets and is in daily contact with US authorities. This reinforces that Japan remains committed to stemming speculative JPY moves. Adding to this, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upward revision of inflation forecasts and the 6-3 hawkish vote split lifted bets for a potential rate increase as soon as June. This favors the JPY bulls, warranting caution before positioning for further USD/JPY gains

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EUR/JPY – Tests 50-day EMA barrier near 185.00

  • EUR/JPY is challenging immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 47 indicates momentum has eased toward neutral territory.
  • The primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.75.

EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 184.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross consolidating in a neutral tone as it holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA.

This tight EMA squeeze hints at an indecisive market after the recent pullback, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 suggests momentum has cooled toward neutral rather than signaling outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86. A successful break above the medium-term averages would support the bullish momentum and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

The EUR/JPY cross is positioned slightly above the nine-day EMA at 184.75. A sustained break below the short-term average would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around a nearly 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.25%0.32%0.31%0.10%0.22%0.36%0.34%
EUR-0.25%0.07%0.04%-0.18%-0.01%0.12%0.08%
GBP-0.32%-0.07%-0.02%-0.25%-0.10%0.04%0.00%
JPY-0.31%-0.04%0.02%-0.21%-0.04%0.07%0.03%
CAD-0.10%0.18%0.25%0.21%0.17%0.24%0.24%
AUD-0.22%0.01%0.10%0.04%-0.17%0.11%0.09%
NZD-0.36%-0.12%-0.04%-0.07%-0.24%-0.11%-0.02%
CHF-0.34%-0.08%-0.00%-0.03%-0.24%-0.09%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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Japanese Yen gathers strength on reports of FX intervention during May holidays

  • USD/JPY edges lower to near 156.85 in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market again during the May holidays. 
  • The US April employment report will be the highlight on Friday. 

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 156.85 during the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following another intervention by Japanese authorities. Markets might turn cautious later on Friday ahead of the US April employment report. 

Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May after having conducted Japanese yen-buying operations on April 30. The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”

The potential for further interventions could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura said on Thursday that authorities are prepared to respond on all fronts to speculative moves in the foreign exchange market. 

All eyes will be on the US employment report for April, which is due on Friday. Market consensus estimates  62,000 new jobs in April. This would be a sharp drop from the 178,000 jobs added in March. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around 184.00 as near-term bearish bias maintains

  • EUR/JPY may fall toward the 11-week low around 181.87.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.75, signaling persistent downside pressure.
  • The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.62.

EUR/JPY steadies after posting a little gain in the previous trading day, hovering around 184.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross extends a corrective phase below the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias as dynamic resistance overhead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.75 hovers below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists but without entering oversold territory, leaving room for further weakness if sellers retain control.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

The EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 184.62, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.84. A successful break above the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.03%-0.09%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.05%0.00%-0.04%-0.02%-0.10%-0.02%0.04%
GBP0.03%-0.00%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%-0.03%0.03%
JPY0.09%0.04%0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.01%0.07%
CAD0.07%0.02%0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.04%0.04%
AUD0.15%0.10%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.09%0.14%
NZD0.11%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.04%-0.09%0.06%
CHF0.03%-0.04%-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Trades Flat Around 183.75

  • EUR/JPY trades calmly amid hopes that Japan could intervene again.
  • Japan’s Mimura said that he will closely monitor the forex markets.
  • The risk-on impulse has improved the Euro’s appeal.

The EUR/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 183.75 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair struggles for a direction as investors remain on the sidelines amid hopes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) could intervene again.

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister (FM) for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier in the day, that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. However, Mimura declined to comment on specific levels where an intervention could take place.

While there has been no official confirmation from Japan that it has intervened in markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the last few trading days, there have been strong upside moves in the Asia-Pacific currency on April 30 and May 6.

Although they’ve not commented officially, I think we have to assume that the MoF stepped in again,” analysts at Pepperstone said, adding, “You don’t get a huge move like that, with no obvious catalyst, unless there’s a ‘silent hand’ involved, Reuters report.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm as the risk-on impulse remains boosted amid firm hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Axios report has shown that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.

Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.

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Japanese Yen consolidates as intervention fears, hawkish BoJ keep USD/JPY below mid-156.00s

  • USD/JPY lacks firm intraday directional bias as investors reassess Iran-US peace prospects.
  • The hawkish BoJ and intervention speculations underpin the JPY, keeping a lid on the pair.
  • The divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlooks warrant some caution before initiating bullish bets.

The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from its lowest level since February 24, around the 155.00 psychological mark, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-156.00s, nearly unchanged for the day.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw support from speculations that authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish outlook. In fact, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top currency diplomat, Masato Mimura, delivered another round of verbal intervention and reiterated his close watch on foreign exchange markets. This comes on top of JPY intervention reports, which suggested that Japan may have spent as much as ¥5.48 trillion ($35 billion) buying the JPY after the USD/JPY pair surged past the 160.00 psychological mark last Friday.

Meanwhile, Minutes of the March 18-19 BoJ meeting showed board members reaffirmed that further rate hikes remained appropriate if the economic and price outlook was realised. The pace and timing will be determined meeting by meeting based on wages, prices, and the evolving Iran situation, the Minutes revealed further. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), benefiting the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains depressed amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and also caps the USD/JPY pair.

In fact, US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and that Iran wants to make a deal. Adding to this, Axios, citing two US officials, reported that the White House was nearing a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. The optimism, in turn, is seen undermining the USD’s reserve currency status. Investors, however, reassess the likelihood of a possible Iran-US deal amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, holding back traders from placing directional bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.60%-0.87%-2.48%-0.35%-1.64%-2.10%-1.58%
EUR0.60%-0.23%-1.97%0.27%-1.04%-1.48%-0.96%
GBP0.87%0.23%-1.72%0.51%-0.79%-1.24%-0.72%
JPY2.48%1.97%1.72%2.27%0.91%0.41%1.11%
CAD0.35%-0.27%-0.51%-2.27%-1.34%-1.86%-1.23%
AUD1.64%1.04%0.79%-0.91%1.34%-0.39%0.07%
NZD2.10%1.48%1.24%-0.41%1.86%0.39%0.51%
CHF1.58%0.96%0.72%-1.11%1.23%-0.07%-0.51%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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USDJPY: another intervention by Japanese authorities, yen gains 1.00%

USDJPY was hit again today by a strong wave of yen buying, with the pair falling from the upper 157.700 area to 155.030. The move is being interpreted as another intervention by Japanese authorities. The timing fits the recent pattern: low liquidity around Japanese holidays and the transition from the Asian to the European session, when official flows can have a greater market impact. At the peak of the move, the yen strengthened by nearly 2%, toward the 155 area — the strongest level since February 24, 2026 — after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative movements in the FX market.

This is another such intervention following last week’s large-scale operation. At that time, Bank of Japan money market data suggested that Tokyo may have spent around 5.48 trillion yen, or roughly 35 billion USD, to support the yen after USDJPY broke above the 160 level. The key signal for investors is that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is no longer limited to verbal warnings, but is actively attempting to cap USDJPY gains, particularly in the 158–160 zone. At the same time, rapid rebounds following earlier interventions show that these actions are buying time rather than changing the broader trend itself. Levels above 160 were also a critical point during the July 2024 intervention.

The fundamental backdrop remains difficult for the yen: the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan, Japan’s dependence on energy imports, and geopolitical pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to support the dollar and weaken the yen. The recent improvement in sentiment surrounding a potential US–Iran agreement has helped Tokyo through lower oil prices and a weaker USD, but if this pressure does not continue to ease — or if the Bank of Japan does not adopt a more hawkish stance — investors may continue to support the current weakening trend in JPY.