Facts: GBPAUD is trading above the 100-period moving average from D1 interval The pair broke above the resistance at 1.9190 The pair invalidated 1:1 structure
Recommendation: Trade: Long position on GBPAUD at market price Target: 1.9735, 2.0000 Stop: 1.9140
Opinion: GBPAUD has been trading in a downward trend since April 2025, but the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the D1 interval, one can see that the price broke above the upper limit of the 1:1 structure which, according to the Overbalance strategy, may herald a resumption of an upward trend. As long as the price sits above 1.9190, the further upward move is the base case scenario. We recommend going long GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.9735 and 2.0000. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.9140. Source: xStation5
UK GDP Estimate YoY Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1.2%, Previous 1.2%)
UK GDP Estimate MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0%, Previous -0.1%)
UK Manufacturing Production MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.4%)
The UK economy continues its steady, post-recession expansion, marking its sixth consecutive month of rolling three-month growth. While the broader trend remains highly positive, momentum slowed slightly heading into the summer, influenced by global supply chain disruptions stemming from the geopolitical conflict in Iran. Figure 1: Contributions to three-month GDP growth, UK, May 2025 to May 2026
Source: Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate from the Office for National StatisticsKey Performance & Sector Breakdown
Overall GDP: Grew 0.7% in the three months to May 2026 (down slightly from 0.8% in April), but managed a modest 0.1% tick-up in the month of May itself.
Services (The Growth Engine) : Grew 0.7% in the three months to May. Growth was powered by Information & Communication (up 2.5%) and professional services—specifically scientific R&D (up 5.1% in May), driven by medical sciences.
Production & Manufacturing: Rose 0.1% over the three months. Manufacturing was the standout sub-sector (up 1.6%), led by pharmaceuticals. However, this was weighed down by sharp declines in energy and water utilities.
Construction: Grew 1.6% over the three months, buoyed by private commercial projects. However, it contracted 0.8% in May, dragged down by a 5% drop in private housing repair and maintenance.
The pound reacted positively to the reading, though it wasn’t able to break out of the current range between 1,3520 and 1,3550. GBPUSD is tradining closely to the 10-hour exponential moving average (EMA10 on an H1 chart; yellow), slowing down after dynamic gains thruought the yesterday’s session.
AUD/JPY softens to near 113.45 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross maintains a constructive outlook, with bullish RSI momentum.
The immediate resistance level is seen at 113.70; the initial support level to watch is 112.65.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 113.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.
Senior officials from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) noted that a delay in stimulus adjustment amid high inflation risk could trigger an economic downturn. However, a Reuters survey showed earlier Thursday that nearly half of Japanese firms are experiencing negative business impact from the BoJ’s interest rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs hurting bottom lines and discouraging capital investment.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle band, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported despite recent consolidation. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 57 keeps momentum on the constructive side, hinting that buyers retain control as long as the pair stays comfortably above the lower Bollinger band at 111.10.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band around 113.70, where a sustained break would open the door to the May 13 high of 114.74.
On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.65, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 112.40, while a deeper pullback towards the lower band at 111.10 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure.
EUR/USD struggles to attract follow-through buying amid mixed fundamental cues.
Receding Fed rate hike bets keep USD bulls on the defensive and support spot prices.
Escalating US-Iran tensions and inflation fears help limit USD losses, capping the pair.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady above the 1.1450 level during the Asian session on Thursday and consolidates its strong gains registered over the past two days, to the highest level since June 18.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near a four-week low, touched on Wednesday following the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June. This comes on top of a soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday and further prompts traders to trim their bets for an immediate rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook, in turn, keeps USD bulls on the defensive, which is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has intensified since the beginning of this week, with US forces launching a fresh round of airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone infrastructure on Wednesday. Tehran, on the other hand, has responded with retaliatory drone and missile attacks on US-linked military facilities across the region. Adding to this, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz support elevated crude oil prices. This fuels concerns about energy-driven inflation and revives hawkish Fed expectations, limiting USD losses and capping the EUR/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring monthly Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, would drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets and positioning for any further appreciating move.
The South Korean Won ticks up against the US Dollar as BoK raises interest rates for the first time in three-and-a-half years.
The BoK was expected to hike policy rates to counter persistent inflationary pressures.
Traders have dialed down the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations as US inflation cools down.
The South Korean Won (KRW) reflects broader strength against the US Dollar (USD) as the Bank of Korea (BoK) delivers its first interest rate hike in three-and-a-half years, raising rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%. The USD/KRW pair gives back slight early gains and ticks down to near 1,484.68 in the Asian trade on Thursday.
The pair will likely remain firm as the BoK has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes, in an attempt to stabilize a slumping KRW and tame persistent price pressures. “We will respond until inflation stabilizes to BoK’s target level,” BoK Governor Hyun-Song Shin said in a statement. Shin added, “Demand side price pressure may need careful monitoring as it can turn into stronger inflationary pressure if robust increase in Gross Domestic Income (GDI) sustained.”
The Asian currency has been outperforming the US Dollar for over two weeks, as market participants had already priced in an interest rate hike by the BoK.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar strives to regain ground after a sharp sell-off in the last two trading days. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 100.50.
The USD Index fell sharply in the past two trading days as soft United States (US) inflation figures on both the retail and the wholesale level have forced traders to reconsider Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the July meeting have dropped significantly to 10.2% from 31% recorded a week ago.
GBP/USD softens to around 1.3530 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
The US military launched another wave of strikes against Iran.
Rising tensions in the Middle East have prompted traders to increase bets on BoE rate hikes this year.
The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3530 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as renewed conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited energy-driven inflation risks. Traders brace for the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the US Retail Sales data, which are due later on Thursday.
The US military said it has launched another wave of strikes against Iran in a further effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, per the Guardian. Explosions were reported late on Wednesday on Iran’s Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and locations in the Sistan-Baluchestan province.
Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that if Iran did not benefit from its memorandum of understanding with the United States, “We have no reason to adhere to such an understanding.” Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair in the near term.
Andy Burnham is expected to be officially named UK Prime Minister on July 20, pushing the focus onto his choice of finance minister, given the nation’s shaky public finances.
Traders raise their bets on rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) this year, given the expected impact on inflation from higher oil prices.
Money markets are fully pricing in a hike by the November policy meeting, with a second rate hike priced in by April 2027, according to Reuters. Before the US-Iran war, traders had been expecting the BoE to lower interest rates twice this year.
USD/JPY edges lower to around 162.15 in Thursday’s Asian session.
Japan’s Katayama said ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed.
Cooling US inflation curbs Fed rate hike bets.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 162.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) after verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Traders await the release of the US June Retail Sales data later on Thursday for fresh impetus.
Traders remain on alert for possible intervention from Japanese officials. On Thursday, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed. She added that the officials will track market trends and economic data to ensure fiscal sustainability.
Softer-than-expected US inflation data reinforced bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can stay patient on interest rate hikes, weighing on the Greenback. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 5.5% YoY in June, versus 6.0% in May (revised from 6.5%). This reading came in below the market consensus of 6.2%.
On a monthly basis, the PPI declined by 0.3%, compared to the 0.6% increase recorded in May (revised from 1.1%) and improved compared with the estimate for no change.
The probability for a rate hike in July was slashed to 9.6%, versus a 45% implied probability at the start of the week. Markets still see even odds of at least a 25 basis points (bps) increase in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
EUR/JPY near the 186.10 ascending triangle ceiling suggests building bullish pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 56 indicates positive, sustainable upward momentum.
The currency cross could find the initial support at the nine-day EMA at 185.35.
EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 185.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is retaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests positive but not overextended momentum, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross positioning near the upper boundary of an ascending triangle around 186.10, suggesting that price crowding right against that flat ceiling indicates that buyers are aggressively absorbing all selling pressure at that level. This positioning shows immense bullish pressure. Since the dips are getting shallower, staying near the top suggests a breakout above resistance is likely building up.
A decisive daily close above this upper boundary typically triggers a powerful bullish continuation, which could expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 185.35, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.05. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending triangle’s lower boundary around 184.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.00%
0.12%
-0.05%
0.08%
0.09%
0.12%
0.11%
EUR
-0.00%
0.11%
-0.04%
0.08%
0.19%
0.13%
0.10%
GBP
-0.12%
-0.11%
-0.15%
-0.02%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%
JPY
0.05%
0.04%
0.15%
0.09%
0.20%
0.16%
0.15%
CAD
-0.08%
-0.08%
0.02%
-0.09%
0.10%
0.07%
0.05%
AUD
-0.09%
-0.19%
-0.06%
-0.20%
-0.10%
-0.01%
-0.05%
NZD
-0.12%
-0.13%
-0.02%
-0.16%
-0.07%
0.01%
-0.03%
CHF
-0.11%
-0.10%
-0.01%
-0.15%
-0.05%
0.05%
0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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