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AUD/JPY holds losses below 114.50 as BoJ keeps rate steady at 0.75%

  • AUD/JPY loses ground to around 114.30 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
  • BoJ kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April policy meeting on Tuesday. 
  • The Australian March CPI inflation report will be the highlight later on Wednesday. 

The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 114.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision. Traders will closely monitor Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for any hints about the next move.

As widely expected, the BoJ decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 0.75% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. According to the BoJ’s policy statement, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in accordance with developments in the economy, prices, and financial markets. It said wages and prices may face upward pressure more than what the output gap suggests. The BoJ will scrutinize the timing and pace of policy adjustment with a close eye on economic and price impact from Middle East war developments. 

The attention will shift to the BoJ’s Governor Kazuo Ueda press conference for more clues about the interest rate path in Japan. Any hawkish comments from policymakers could lift the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross.

On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a third consecutive time at its next meeting on May 5, 2026. Markets are pricing in a 74% chance of another 25-basis-point increase to 4.35% in the May policy meeting, according to Reuters. 

Traders will take more cues from the Australian March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday for fresh impetus. The headline CPI is projected to show a rise of 4.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.7% in February. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the JPY. 

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GBP/JPY slips as UK political risk pressures Pound, Yen weakness limits losses

  • GBP/JPY trims intraday gains as the British Pound softens on UK political uncertainty.
  • Markets await the BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions due this week.
  • Technicals remain bullish above key SMAs, though momentum shows signs of cooling.

GBP/JPY gives back part of its earlier gains on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) comes under pressure following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face a parliamentary vote on a possible probe into whether he misled lawmakers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

However, the downside remains limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform most of its major peers, with elevated Oil prices weighing on the currency given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.

At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 215.67, easing slightly after hitting 216.06, its highest level since January 2008, while the wide interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.

Attention now turns to upcoming monetary policy meetings due this week, with both the BoE and the BoJ widely expected to hold rates steady as policymakers assess the impact of rising Oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

The BoJ’s slow pace of policy normalization is likely to keep the Yen on the defensive, although lingering intervention risks could limit further weakness amid repeated warnings from Japanese officials, with USD/JPY hovering close to the 160 mark.

In the daily chart, GBP/JPY keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above both the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at 213.60 and the 50-day SMA at 212.24. The positive but moderating Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum persists, though the pace of the advance is losing some steam as the cross consolidates near recent highs.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 213.60, with a deeper pullback likely finding additional demand near the 50-day SMA at 212.24. As long as GBP/JPY holds above these moving averages, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and any dips toward this support band may be treated as corrective rather than signaling a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.08%-0.06%-0.43%-0.49%-0.51%-0.03%
EUR0.14%0.08%0.09%-0.28%-0.32%-0.35%0.13%
GBP0.08%-0.08%0.00%-0.38%-0.43%-0.45%0.05%
JPY0.06%-0.09%0.00%-0.35%-0.42%-0.46%0.09%
CAD0.43%0.28%0.38%0.35%-0.06%-0.10%0.41%
AUD0.49%0.32%0.43%0.42%0.06%-0.01%0.47%
NZD0.51%0.35%0.45%0.46%0.10%0.01%0.49%
CHF0.03%-0.13%-0.05%-0.09%-0.41%-0.47%-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP: Loses momentum as BoE turns hawkish – MUFG

MUFG analysts note that EUR/GBP has drifted lower within a 0.8600–0.8800 range as the Pound (GBP) outperforms the Euro (EUR). The euro-zone faces weaker PMIs and rising stagflation risks, while stronger United Kingdom (UK) data and sticky inflation have markets pricing more BoE tightening. They see scope for several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for a hike, keeping EUR/GBP under pressure.

Pound supported by stronger UK data

“The initial negative impact of the energy price shock on the euro‑zone economy was evident in the latest PMI surveys for April. The surveys showed that business confidence fell sharply in the services sector, while holding up better among manufacturers. The euro‑zone services PMI declined by 2.8 points to 47.4 in April, whereas the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 points to 52.2.”

“For the euro‑zone economy as a whole, the composite PMI dropped by 2.1 points to 48.6, marking its weakest level since November 2024. The index has now fallen by 3.3 points since February, prior to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has deteriorated more quickly than during the previous energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and is already at much weaker levels.”

“The GBP has held up better than the EUR over the past week, placing modest downward pressure on EUR/GBP, although the pair has remained within a relatively tight 0.8600–0.8800 range since the conflict began. The GBP has been supported by further evidence that the UK economy started the year with more underlying momentum than previously expected, while the initial negative impact of the energy price shock has so far appeared limited.”

“Stronger growth momentum has increased the risk of a hawkish policy update from the BoE this week. The UK rate market has moved to price back in more tightening from the BoE, and the uplift for UK yields has provided more support for the GBP. The 2-year government bond yield in the UK has increased by around 30bps from the recent low compared to around 20bps in the euro-zone and just over 10bps in the US.”

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USD/JPY: Convergence delayed but capped by intervention – HSBC

HSBC strategists highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest G10 currency month-to-date, with USD/JPY trading in an unusually narrow range despite Japan’s large net energy import status and Gulf exposure. They argue a cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) and domestic fiscal issues may delay USD/JPY’s move lower, although intervention risks and portfolio inflows should cap upside. HSBC’s base case still sees USD/JPY declining by year-end.

BoJ caution and fiscal strains vs caps

“Bearish sentiment towards JPY is consistent with Japan’s macro exposure. Japan is the largest net energy importer among advanced economies (scaled by GDP) and has deep economic ties with the Gulf region.”

“Despite these headwinds, USD-JPY has traded in an unusually narrow range recently. A cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) and domestic fiscal challenges may delay USD/JPY’s convergence lower towards levels implied by rate differentials.”

“Key fiscal watchpoints include the possibility that funding for fuel subsidies may run out in mid/late May and that a supplementary budget may be proposed.”

“Offsetting factors include net portfolio inflows (foreign buying of Japanese equities and bonds month-to-date in April, alongside Japanese selling of foreign bonds) and firm verbal intervention from the Ministry of Finance, may help cap USD/JPY.”

“Our base case remains for USD/JPY to decline by year-end. Near-term upside risks include a more dovish BoJ, a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalation in the Middle East conflict and renewed oil-price highs, and further fiscal slippage in Japan.”

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AUD/USD rallies to 10-day highs near 0.7200 amid US Dollar weakness

  • AUD/USD rallies more than 0.5% to reach session highs near 0.7200.
  • Moderate hopes of a US-Iran peace deal are feeding a mild risk appetite on Monday.
  • The US Fed decision and Australian CPI will gather investors’ focus this week.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) accelerates its rally against a weak US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reaching 10-day highs at 0.7190 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100 last week. News of a peace proposal from Tehran and hopes that high energy prices will boost inflation and force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike rates next week are keeping the Aussie buoyed.

A report published by Axios earlier on Monday, citing a US official and sources related to the matter, affirmed that Tehran has sent a peace proposal to the US, offering to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and to postpone nuclear conversations to a later stage. This news helps sustain hopes of a negotiated end to the conflict and adds weight to the US Dollar.

Central banks return to the focus

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will also come into focus this week. The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the 3.50%-3.75% rate.

The bank is also likely to hint at a steady policy for the next few months. The rising inflationary pressures stemming from Iran’s war have prompted markets to dial down hopes of interest rate cuts this year, and the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that futures markets price a 66% chance that monetary policy will remain on hold by the end of the year. Investors were betting on between one and two rate cuts before the war started.

Before that, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will provide further insight about next week’s RBA decision. Inflation is expected to have accelerated in the first month of the US-Iran war, boosting speculation that the central bank might hike interest rates for the third consecutive time in May. These rumours are keeping the Aussie Dollar close to multi-year highs against the US Dollar.

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EUR/USD: EU policy risks and weaker German sentiment – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that China has criticized the European Union’s (EU) proposed Industrial Accelerator Act as discriminatory, warning of possible countermeasures that could affect trade and investor confidence. He also notes a sharp deterioration in Germany’s consumer climate, with GfK sentiment at its weakest since February 2023, as higher energy prices and Iran-related geopolitical tensions weigh on the Euro area outlook and EUR/USD.

Policy frictions and soft German data

“China’s commerce ministry has criticized the EU for its proposed Industrial Accelerator Act. It formally submitted comments on April 24 outlining strong concerns over what it views as discriminatory provisions against foreign investors.”

“It contends that these measures violate core World Trade Organization principles, including most favored nation and national treatment rules, and could undermine fair competition and investor confidence.”

“Germany’s consumer climate for May deteriorated sharply, with the GfK headline indicator falling to -33.3 from -28.1 in April. This marks a 5.2-point decline and the weakest reading since February 2023.”

“Economic expectations deteriorated further to -13.7, reflecting concerns that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, could derail Germany’s fragile recovery outlook.”

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EUR/USD holds supported as Dollar softens, central bank decisions loom

  • EUR/USD remains supported at the start of the week, helped by a weaker US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
  • German consumer sentiment deteriorates more than expected, reflecting current economic tensions.
  • Markets await the Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions later this week.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Latest data from Germany show a marked deterioration in consumer confidence. The GfK index falls to -33.3 in May, its lowest level in more than three years, from -28.1 previously and well below market expectations. This decline highlights the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices on European households. However, the Euro’s (EUR) reaction remains limited, as investors currently focus on external drivers.

The main market catalyst remains developments in the Middle East. Hopes for easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are supporting risk appetite, weighing on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). According to reports from Axios, Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fostering cautious optimism. Nevertheless, negotiations remain stalled, and disruptions to Oil supply keep Crude prices near $100 per barrel, a level that could weigh on global growth.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, reflecting broad-based weakness in the Greenback. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, alongside the possibility of a more dovish stance ahead, are also contributing to the downside pressure on the USD.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to follow suit on Thursday, although it may signal future tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly driven by energy prices. According to ING, a firm ECB message regarding a potential rate hike could help keep the Euro supported in the short term.

Overall, despite weakening European fundamentals, EUR/USD dynamics remain primarily driven by external factors, particularly US Dollar movements and geopolitical developments.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.19%-0.16%-0.44%-0.51%-0.56%-0.10%
EUR0.20%0.02%0.04%-0.24%-0.27%-0.34%0.10%
GBP0.19%-0.02%0.02%-0.28%-0.32%-0.39%0.08%
JPY0.16%-0.04%-0.02%-0.28%-0.35%-0.41%0.09%
CAD0.44%0.24%0.28%0.28%-0.06%-0.12%0.34%
AUD0.51%0.27%0.32%0.35%0.06%-0.04%0.43%
NZD0.56%0.34%0.39%0.41%0.12%0.04%0.45%
CHF0.10%-0.10%-0.08%-0.09%-0.34%-0.43%-0.45%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

  • EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
  • Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
  • Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.21%-0.16%-0.16%-0.40%-0.49%-0.51%-0.11%
EUR0.21%0.08%0.07%-0.19%-0.26%-0.29%0.10%
GBP0.16%-0.08%0.00%-0.24%-0.34%-0.37%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.07%0.00%-0.23%-0.34%-0.38%0.08%
CAD0.40%0.19%0.24%0.23%-0.10%-0.14%0.29%
AUD0.49%0.26%0.34%0.34%0.10%-0.01%0.39%
NZD0.51%0.29%0.37%0.38%0.14%0.01%0.41%
CHF0.11%-0.10%-0.04%-0.08%-0.29%-0.39%-0.41%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).