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Trade of The Day: EUR/USD

Key takeaways

  • How does the technical situation on EURUSD looks like?

Facts:

  • EURUSD is trading in an upward move from mid-March
  • The pair bounced off the horizontal support at 1.1725 USD
  • The pair is trading above the 100 – period moving average form H4 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1833, 1.1884 Stop: 1.1680

Opinion: Looking at EURUSD at the H4 interval, we can see that the main sentiment on the pair is bullish. However, a downward correction has occurred recently, which has brought the pair down to the key support at 1.1725 USD. The support is a result of previous reactions as well as a lower limit of 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits above 1.1725 support, the main trend remains upward. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1833 and 1.1884. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1680. Source: xStation5

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EUR/CAD steadies below 1.6050 as improved oil prices lift Canadian Dollar

  • EUR/CAD holds losses as the Canadian Dollar gains on improved oil prices.
  • Maritime authorities said an IRGC-linked gunboat fired on a Liberia-flagged vessel and two other cargo ships.
  • ECB’s Lagarde warns Eurozone outlook is highly uncertain due to a significant energy supply shock.

EUR/CAD extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.6040 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross stays subdued as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a stronger risk-on mood after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire despite the collapse of second-round US–Iran talks.

Moreover, the commodity-linked CAD is further supported by firmer oil prices amid renewed attacks on shipping near Iran. Maritime authorities reported that a Liberia-flagged container vessel was fired upon by a gunboat linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while two additional outbound cargo ships were also targeted.

However, a Bloomberg headline, citing Tasnim News Agency affiliated with the IRGC, noted that Iran has received “some sign” the United States (US) may be willing to ease its naval blockade.

The Canadian Dollar may continue to gain as rising energy prices could boost foreign exchange inflows into Canada’s financial system, reflecting the country’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States. Higher energy costs could also lift inflation, potentially prompting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to signal a firm stance against persistent price pressures, further underpinning the currency.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that the Eurozone outlook remains highly uncertain due to a significant energy supply shock tied to Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While energy prices have yet to reach worst-case levels, she stressed that the outlook remains fragile.

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EUR/GBP remains depressed below 0.8700 after hot UK CPI figures

  • EUR/GBP extends losses for the second consecutive day and trades below 0.8700.
  • UK consumer price figures confirm the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war.
  • In the Eurozone, ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, will grab some attention later in the day.

The Euro (EUR) is heading south for the second consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, trading near session lows below 0.8700, as UK inflation figures put pressure on the Bank of England to bring the possibility of an interest rate hike back to the table.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics earlier on Wednesday showed that the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) accelerated to a 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) rate in March. These figures follow two consecutive months of prices growing steadily by 3% YoY, and highlight the inflationary impact of the Middle East war.

The monthly CPI accelerated by 0.7%, its highest level in almost one year, beating expectations of a 0.6% increase, and following a 0.4% gain in February.

Likewise, producer and retail prices have increased beyond forecasts. The Input Producer Prices Index (PPI) surged 4.4% in March and 5.4% year on year. Retail prices rose 0.8% from February and 4.1% over the last 12 months, both above market expectations of 0.7% and 3.9%, respectively.

The Bank of England (BoE) meets on April 30 and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The upside risks to inflation, however, are likely to give hawkish committee members grounds to call for some monetary tightening down the road.

In the Eurozone, the focus on Wednesday will be on a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) speakers, including President Christine Lagarde, later in the day. The ECB is also expected to keep its monetary policy on hold at its April meeting, and therefore, they are likely to stick to the mantra of waiting for further economic data.

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USD/JPY Price Flirts with 100-hour EMA support, above 159.00 amid softer USD

  • USD/JPY attracts some sellers and erodes a part of Tuesday’s gains to over a one-week top.
  • The US-Iran ceasefire extension undermines the USD and exerts some pressure on the pair.
  • Hormuz risks and delayed BoJ rate hike bets cap gains for the JPY and support spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair adds to its modest intraday losses and moves further away from over a one-week high, around the 159.70 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices drop to the 159.00 neighborhood, or a fresh daily low, during the early European session, though the downside potential seems limited.

A temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire prompts some selling around the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, economic concerns stemming from a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, along with bets for a delayed Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, might continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and help limit losses for the currency pair.

The USD/JPY pair shows some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from last week’s swing low, around the 157.60 region, and bounced off the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 1-hour chart. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 48 signals neutral to slightly soft momentum.

Momentum indicators, in turn, hint that the upside impetus is fading but not yet undermining the broader intraday support near the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 159.15, reinforced by the 100-period EMA at 159.07 just beneath.  A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% retracement at 158.85, followed by layered Fibonacci supports at 158.60, 158.36, and 158.01, with the 157.57 swing low acting as a more distant structural floor if selling pressure accelerates.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 1-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY
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AUD edges higher as Trump extends ceasefire with Iran

  • AUD/USD gains traction to around 0.7160 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
  • Trump said the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request. 
  • Markets expect the RBA to further raise the rate due to rising fuel costs and inflation. 

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.7160 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation in further peace talks. 

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran. Trump also stated that he would maintain a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and he was extending the ceasefire until Iran submitted a new proposal, “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy contribute to the USD’s upside. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the Middle East has caused oil price spikes that threaten to push inflation toward 6%. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 77% probability of an RBA rate hike next month as Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a commitment to anchoring inflation.

Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Australia and the US, which are due on Thursday. 

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NZD/USD gains momentum above 0.5900 on hot New Zealand CPI data

  • NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5905 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
  • New Zealand’s CPI rose 3.1% YoY in Q1, hotter than expected. 
  • Warsh rejected senators’ concerns that he would bend to Trump’s demands to cut interest rates.

The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5905 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data. 

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, versus 3.1% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2025, Statistics New Zealand reported on Tuesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 2.9%. The quarterly CPI inflation climbed to 0.9% in Q1 from the previous reading of 0.6%, beating the estimates of 0.8%.

Higher-than-expected Q1 inflation data has fueled market speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to raise interest rates sooner than previously. This, in turn, provides some support to the Kiwi. 

On the other hand, remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy might help limit the USD’s losses. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.

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EUR/JPY Remains above 187.00 as bullish bias prevails

  • EUR/JPY may find its initial resistance around the all-time high of 187.95.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 63 suggests buyers remain in control.
  • The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.83.

EUR/JPY remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 187.10 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is remaining within an ascending channel, signaling a persistent bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross holds a bullish near-term bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index near 63 suggests buyers retain control despite the latest pause just under recent highs.

The EUR/JPY cross may appreciate toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.90.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find its primary support at the nine-day EMA of 186.83, followed by the lower ascending channel boundary around 186.50. A sustained break below the channel would expose the 50-day EMA at 184.73.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%-0.07%-0.20%0.00%
EUR-0.02%-0.00%-0.02%-0.03%-0.09%-0.22%-0.02%
GBP-0.01%0.00%-0.02%-0.02%-0.08%-0.20%-0.02%
JPY0.02%0.02%0.02%-0.02%-0.05%-0.19%-0.01%
CAD0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%-0.03%-0.16%0.02%
AUD0.07%0.09%0.08%0.05%0.03%-0.14%0.04%
NZD0.20%0.22%0.20%0.19%0.16%0.14%0.19%
CHF-0.00%0.02%0.02%0.01%-0.02%-0.04%-0.19%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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USD/CHF trades flat near 0.7800 as investors await Iran’s remarks on ceasefire extension

  • USD/CHF flattens around 0.7800 as the US Dollar trades calmly.
  • US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran for an indefinite period.
  • Fed’s Warsh prioritizes a smaller balance sheet while testifying in his confirmation hearing.

The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7800 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair consolidates as investors await remarks from Iran regarding the announcement of the ceasefire extension by the United States (US).

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Tuesday’s gains around 98.40.

Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire for an indefinite period, through a post on Truth Socia, stating that the military department will hold their attacks on Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal.

Meanwhile, the US blockade on Iranian sea ports continues, which is one of the key reasons highlighted by Iran for not agreeing to sit down again with Washington for the resumption of peace talks. Earlier in the day, Iran has warned a powerful attack if the US continues the blockade.

On the domestic front, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh has stated in his confirmation hearing that he will prioritize “smaller balance sheet”, which would mean “rates could be lower, inflation get better, economy stronger”.