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Australian Dollar recovers latest losses following Trade Balance data

  • AUD/USD may rebound as easing US-Iran tensions weaken safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
  • Iran said a US proposal to end the war remains under consideration after reports of a possible agreement.
  • The US Dollar may weaken as easing inflation pressures strengthen expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.

AUD/USD gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 0.7240 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers its daily losses against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of Australia’s Trade Balance data.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Australia posted a Trade Deficit of $1,841M in March, compared with a revised $5,026M surplus in February (previously $5,686M). Markets had expected a $4,250M surplus. Meanwhile, Exports fell 2.7% month-over-month (MoM) after rising 4.2% previously, while monthly imports surged 14.1% following a prior 2.7% decline.

The Australian Dollar may further receive support from hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to an agreement to end the war. The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the war is “still being considered” after reports that the two countries could be close to an agreement. The US has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has been agreed upon yet.

CNBC reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the US military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”

The US Dollar could face challenges as easing concerns over price pressures could convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rate rather than keep policy restrictive for longer.

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The CAD remains flat as crude oil prices decline

  • The Canadian Dollar may weaken as falling oil prices pressure Canada’s crude-export-driven economy.
  • Oil prices fall as easing Middle East tensions reduce concerns over potential supply disruptions.
  • The US proposed to Iran a memorandum of understanding to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

USD/CAD remains flat after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 1.3630 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may struggle amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around $92.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices depreciate on easing supply concerns amid prospects for a Middle East peace deal.

The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the war is “still being considered” after reports that the two countries could be close to an agreement. The US has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has been agreed upon yet.

CNBC reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the US military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”

The US Dollar could face challenges as easing concerns over price pressures could convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rate rather than keep policy restrictive for longer.

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NZD/USD gains traction above 0.5950 on US-Iran peace deal hopes

  • NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5960 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal on Thursday. 
  • RBNZ’s Breman said growth is expected to be slightly slower but is still expected this year. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5960 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following reports that the United States (US) and Iran are close to a deal to end the war. Traders await the release of the US jobs report for April, which is due later on Friday.

CNN reported that Iran is expected to hand over its reply on Thursday to mediators about the US proposal to end the war. Earlier Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said the US has had “very good talks” with Iran over the past 24 hours. A potential agreement with Iran to end the ongoing conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could lift the riskier assets, such as the Kiwi against the USD, in the near term. 

The US jobs data for April will take center stage later on Friday. Economists expect a gain of 60,000 jobs for April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. 

On the other hand, New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate fell unexpectedly to 5.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 from 5.4% in the previous reading. This report has kept market expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). 

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said early Thursday that she anticipates slightly elevated near-term inflation. She further stated that growth would be slightly slower but still expected this year. 

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Currency Talk – USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, NZDUSD, and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDCAD

USDCAD prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of April. The chart shows a 1:1 pattern with a range of around 80 pips. Although the latest pattern has been slightly breached, the price has not exceeded the 127.2% level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, indicates that the downward trend remains intact. The current correction has stalled around 1.3630, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. Until this level is broken, the scenario of further declines remains in place.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since 6 April, NZDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. The lower boundary of the pattern at 0.5840 has recently been tested twice. This level was only slightly breached, but the price failed to return below the polarity of the previously negated downward pattern at 0.5828, which led to the emergence of another upward impulse. According to the Overbalance methodology, the uptrend remains in place, and the key support level remains at 0.5865, derived from the lower boundary of the green 1:1 pattern. The pattern remains valid as it has only been slightly breached but not negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

EURNZD

Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. The price attempted to break through the support level at 1.9969 on several occasions and eventually both broke through it and negated the 1:1 upward trend, confirming the bearish scenario. In the event of a correction, the key short-term resistance remains at 1.9930. If the downward movement continues, the lows from February and March at 1.9540 remain a potential target for selling.

EURNZD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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USDJPY: another intervention by Japanese authorities, yen gains 1.00%

USDJPY was hit again today by a strong wave of yen buying, with the pair falling from the upper 157.700 area to 155.030. The move is being interpreted as another intervention by Japanese authorities. The timing fits the recent pattern: low liquidity around Japanese holidays and the transition from the Asian to the European session, when official flows can have a greater market impact. At the peak of the move, the yen strengthened by nearly 2%, toward the 155 area — the strongest level since February 24, 2026 — after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative movements in the FX market.

This is another such intervention following last week’s large-scale operation. At that time, Bank of Japan money market data suggested that Tokyo may have spent around 5.48 trillion yen, or roughly 35 billion USD, to support the yen after USDJPY broke above the 160 level. The key signal for investors is that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is no longer limited to verbal warnings, but is actively attempting to cap USDJPY gains, particularly in the 158–160 zone. At the same time, rapid rebounds following earlier interventions show that these actions are buying time rather than changing the broader trend itself. Levels above 160 were also a critical point during the July 2024 intervention.

The fundamental backdrop remains difficult for the yen: the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan, Japan’s dependence on energy imports, and geopolitical pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to support the dollar and weaken the yen. The recent improvement in sentiment surrounding a potential US–Iran agreement has helped Tokyo through lower oil prices and a weaker USD, but if this pressure does not continue to ease — or if the Bank of Japan does not adopt a more hawkish stance — investors may continue to support the current weakening trend in JPY.

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Offshore Yuan Approaches 3-Year High

The offshore yuan traded around 6.81 per dollar on Wednesday, approaching its strongest level since March 2023, as demand for safe-haven assets such as the greenback weakened amid diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump pointed to what he described as “great progress” toward a “complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran,” while stating that the US would temporarily pause efforts to assist stranded vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, Trump indicated he would discuss the Iran conflict with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming summit on May 14–15, while seeking to temper tensions surrounding the issue. On the domestic front, a private survey showed that the composite PMI rose to 53.1 in April from 51.5 in March, as both manufacturing output (52.2 vs. 50.8) and services activity (52.6 vs. 52.1) expanded at a faster pace.

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Pound Sterling scales higher as USD weakens amid renewed US-Iran peace deal hopes

  • GBP/USD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a broadly weaker USD.
  • Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading hawkish Fed bets exert pressure on the buck.
  • BoE rate hike expectations act as a tailwind for the GBP and further support spot prices.

The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and moves away from the weekly low, around the 1.3515-1.3510 area, which was touched the previous day. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to the 1.3580 region during the Asian session.

US President Donald Trump said that ‘Project Freedom’ – aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see if the Iran peace deal can be finalised. This comes hours after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now and that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran. The comments lift hopes for a quick resolution of the US-Iran conflict and boost investors’ confidence, prompting some selling around the USD and providing a goodish lift to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a fresh leg down in Crude Oil prices, which helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers market expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook turns out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England’s (BoE) signal that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent. This further contributes to the GBP/USD pair follow-through move higher and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.

Moving ahead, the US ADP report on private-sector employment, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could provide some impetus later during the early North American session. The key focus, however, will be on the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets, which will drive the USD and the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.24%-0.26%-0.16%-0.14%-0.57%-0.60%-0.25%
EUR0.24%-0.03%0.09%0.10%-0.32%-0.39%-0.01%
GBP0.26%0.03%0.11%0.13%-0.29%-0.35%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.09%-0.11%0.00%-0.43%-0.47%-0.06%
CAD0.14%-0.10%-0.13%-0.00%-0.42%-0.46%-0.08%
AUD0.57%0.32%0.29%0.43%0.42%-0.03%0.34%
NZD0.60%0.39%0.35%0.47%0.46%0.03%0.38%
CHF0.25%0.00%-0.04%0.06%0.08%-0.34%-0.38%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Canadian Dollar gains ground as easing safe-haven demand weighs on US Dollar

  • USD/CAD weakens as the US Dollar softens amid optimism over a potential Tehran deal.
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire holds despite Gulf clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The commodity-linked CAD may weaken as oil prices fall amid easing supply concerns on fading Middle East tensions.

USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair retreats as the US Dollar (USD) softens on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by rising optimism over a potential deal with Tehran.

Washington announced an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.

However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran was not fully settled, as both sides continued exchanging fire in the Gulf amid tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Losses in the USD/CAD pair may be capped, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face pressure from weaker oil prices. West Texas Intermediate continues to decline, trading near $97.90 per troy ounce at the time of writing.

Oil prices are falling as supply concerns ease alongside fading Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump stated that the US would temporarily pause efforts to help stranded vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz, allowing time to evaluate prospects for a deal with Iran to end the conflict.