Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee inches higherahead of HSBC Manufacturing PMI, state election results

  • USD/INR steadies as traders assess progress in US–Iran talks amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Indian Rupee may gain support from improved sentiment and easing oil prices.
  • Focus is on the four-state election results, with Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing.

USD/INR loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 94.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders evaluate progress in the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations. HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.

The Indian Rupee (INR) may find some support from improved market sentiment as mediation efforts to end the war have continued, as the conflict in Iran enters its third month. Iran said it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest 14-point proposal, boosting optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Trump suggested that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.

The INR may also face fewer challenges as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.30 per barrel at the time of writing. It is important to note that India is a major oil importer, and cheaper oil reduces US Dollar demand by oil companies.

Crude oil prices struggled after a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicated that Donald Trump said the United States would begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.

The Rupee remains under sustained pressure, caught in a feedback loop of high oil prices that have dented sentiment, driven heavier importer hedging, and sustained dollar demand from refiners.

Elevated crude has also sidelined foreign investors from Indian equities. Portfolio outflows neared about $6.5 billion in April, taking cumulative 2026 withdrawals to about $20.6 billion, exceeding all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand, according to Reuters.

Indian equities opened higher on Monday, aided by softer oil prices, while key state election results remain in focus. Vote counting began across four major states, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing midway through his third term.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR eyes 95.00 near fresh record highs

USD/INR trades around 94.90 at the time of writing on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing neutral bias as the pair remains within the rectangular channel.

However, the USD/INR pair holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish near-term bias. The alignment of shorter- over longer-dated EMAs hints at sustained upside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.

The USD/INR pair may retest the upper boundary of the rectangle, aligned with the all-time high of 95.33, which was recorded on April 30. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.48. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.10, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.

USD/INR: Daily Chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDINR
USD-0.10%-0.09%-0.33%-0.01%-0.13%-0.37%0.03%
EUR0.10%-0.03%-0.24%0.09%0.02%-0.27%0.00%
GBP0.09%0.03%-0.23%0.11%0.00%-0.25%0.19%
JPY0.33%0.24%0.23%0.29%0.15%-0.09%0.21%
CAD0.01%-0.09%-0.11%-0.29%-0.14%-0.39%-0.09%
AUD0.13%-0.02%-0.01%-0.15%0.14%-0.28%0.02%
NZD0.37%0.27%0.25%0.09%0.39%0.28%0.44%
INR-0.03%0.00%-0.19%-0.21%0.09%-0.02%-0.44%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/USD Consolidates above 0.7200, highest since June 2022 ahead of RBA

  • AUD/USD is seen consolidating its recent strong gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
  • Hawkish RBA bets continue to underpin the Aussie, while rising US-Iran tensions cap the upside.
  • Bulls also seem hesitant and await the crucial RBA rate decision on Tuesday for a fresh impetus.

The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and holds steady above the 0.7200 mark, near its highest level since June 2022, touched on Friday. Bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday continue to underpin the Aussie. However, rising US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for spot prices ahead of the key central bank event.

Against the backdrop of the recent bounce from the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, Friday’s breakout and close above the 0.7200 horizontal barrier were seen as a key trigger for the AUD/USD bulls. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 suggests firm positive momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, hinting that upside pressure is intact.

The technical setup backs the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair’s recent move higher from the late-March swing low. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract buyers and remain limited in the near term. The 100-period EMA around 0.7137 might continue to offer immediate support, which, if broken decisively, would signal fading bullish control and open the way for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD
Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee Steadies Near Record Low

The Indian rupee hovered near 94.9 per dollar, steadying near record levels as markets continued to digest persistent external pressures. Oil prices held steady after an initial dip, with traders weighing the effectiveness of a US initiative aimed at improving safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude stayed above $108 a barrel after early volatility, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $102, keeping energy costs elevated. Sentiment was also shaped by renewed security concerns after a tanker was struck by projectiles near the UAE coast. The rupee had earlier weakened to a record 95.33 before stabilising, with traders noting that central bank intervention may be helping to curb sharper swings. Looking ahead, currency and bond markets are expected to remain sensitive to oil, geopolitics, and upcoming economic data that could shape global growth expectations.

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.00 as Iran tensions counter suspected JPY intervention

  • USD/JPY edges up following a modest bearish gap opening on Monday amid some USD dip-buying.
  • Rising Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate hike bets turn out to be key factors supporting the buck.
  • Intervention fears might keep the JPY bears on the back foot and cap the upside for spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buyers following a modest Asian session downtick to the 156.60 region on Monday. Spot prices climb to the 157.00 mark in the last hour, though it lacks follow-through, warranting caution before positioning for an extension of Friday’s goodish recovery from the 155.50-155.45 area, or the lowest level since February 25.

Renewed concerns about the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East assist the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to fill a modest bearish gap, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. US President Donald Trump announced that the US will begin guiding neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz under an operation called Project Freedom and added that if this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the strategic waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Moreover, Kashkari raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war. This further underpins the Greenback and lends support to the USD/JPY pair. However, reports that Japanese authorities likely intervened around May 1, spending approximately ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 billion) to prop up the weak domestic currency, might hold back bears from placing fresh bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This should keep a lid on the currency pair.

Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the buck and the USD/JPY pair at the mercy of fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, however, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD falls to near 1.1700 as US to raise tariffs on EU vehicles

  • EUR/USD falls as Trump signals US tariffs on EU cars and trucks rising to 25% from 15%.
  • US Dollar trims daily losses as risk aversion rises on escalating Middle East tensions.
  • Trump plans escorting ships via Strait of Hormuz; Ebrahim Azizi warns US role violates ceasefire.

EUR/USD depreciates after opening at the bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair declined as the Euro (EUR) faces challenges, which could be attributed to the recent comments from President Donald Trump, indicating the US will raise tariffs on European Union (EU) cars and trucks to 25% from 15% this week, citing alleged breaches of a trade deal.

Trump said in a social media post, warning EU-made vehicles would face higher duties unless production shifts to US plants, aiming to push carmakers to localize output. The European Commission rejected the claim, saying it is complying with last summer’s agreement and vowing to defend EU interests if Washington violates the deal.

The EUR/USD pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) pares its daily losses amid increased risk aversion driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP edges higher despite Middle East uncertainty

  • GBP/USD edges higher to around 1.3580 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East. 
  • The BoE and the Fed left the interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting last week. 

The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3580 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid Middle East uncertainty. The US employment report for April will take center stage later on Friday. 

Markets could turn cautious after US President Donald Trump said the US would start an effort on Monday morning to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz as a “humanitarian ‌gesture” to aid neutral countries in the US-Israeli war with Iran. An Iranian official warned that US interference in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, adding that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric. 

Iran earlier claimed that the US had reacted to its 14-point plan through Pakistan, and it was reviewing the response, though Trump said it was unlikely to be acceptable. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. 

Last week, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said if price pressures triggered by the conflict proved to be severe, a “forceful tightening” would be required. Bailey played down fears of near-term rate hikes but added that “we’ll continue to monitor the situation and its impact on the UK economy very closely.”

Currency Hedger No Comments

Canadian Dollar remains subdued amid lower oil prices

  • USD/CAD holds firm as commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens amid lower oil prices.
  • WTI struggles after Bloomberg reports Donald Trump plans to escort ships via the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran proposed a one-month deadline for talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

USD/CAD inches higher for the second successive day, trading around 1.3590 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.50 per barrel at the time of writing.

Crude oil prices struggled following a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicating that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

However, Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.

The upside in USD/CAD may remain limited as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid easing safe-haven demand, with traders assessing progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Mediation efforts to end the conflict have continued as the war in Iran enters its third month. Donald Trump hinted that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.

According to Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran has proposed setting a one-month deadline for talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending both the US naval blockade and the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

Currency Hedger No Comments

NZD/USD approaches 0.5925 hurdle as Iran tensions loom ahead of NZ and US jobs data

  • NZD/USD shows some resilience below 0.5900 and attracts some dip-buyers on Monday.
  • US-Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate cut bets support the USD and might cap the pair.
  • Traders this week will take cues from NZ employment details and the key US NFP report.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back above the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session. Bulls, however, need to wait for a convincing breakout through the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal barrier before positioning for any further gains, as the focus remains glued to developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

US President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the US will begin guiding neutral ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz under an operation called Project Freedom and added that if this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the strategic waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which could benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Moreover, Kashkari raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the USD. However, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint counter the negative factors, supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the NZD/USD pair.

The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the aforementioned barrier before positioning for the resumption of the recent strong move up from the April monthly swing low. There isn’t any relevant economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of geopolitical headlines. Traders this week will further take cues from key US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which, along with the quarterly employment report from New Zealand, should provide a fresh impetus to the NZDUSD pair.