USD/CAD holds firm as commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens amid lower oil prices.
WTI struggles after Bloomberg reports Donald Trump plans to escort ships via the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran proposed a one-month deadline for talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.
USD/CAD inches higher for the second successive day, trading around 1.3590 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.50 per barrel at the time of writing.
Crude oil prices struggled following a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicating that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.
However, Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.
The upside in USD/CAD may remain limited as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid easing safe-haven demand, with traders assessing progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Mediation efforts to end the conflict have continued as the war in Iran enters its third month. Donald Trump hinted that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.
According to Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran has proposed setting a one-month deadline for talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending both the US naval blockade and the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.
NZD/USD shows some resilience below 0.5900 and attracts some dip-buyers on Monday.
US-Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate cut bets support the USD and might cap the pair.
Traders this week will take cues from NZ employment details and the key US NFP report.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and climbs back above the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session. Bulls, however, need to wait for a convincing breakout through the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal barrier before positioning for any further gains, as the focus remains glued to developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.
US President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the US will begin guiding neutral ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz under an operation called Project Freedom and added that if this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the strategic waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which could benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Moreover, Kashkari raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the USD. However, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint counter the negative factors, supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the NZD/USD pair.
The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the aforementioned barrier before positioning for the resumption of the recent strong move up from the April monthly swing low. There isn’t any relevant economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of geopolitical headlines. Traders this week will further take cues from key US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which, along with the quarterly employment report from New Zealand, should provide a fresh impetus to the NZDUSD pair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low near the 98.00 price zone on Friday, extending the losses seen the previous day and ending a week in which the world’s most important central banks confirmed a hawkish shift due to rising inflation pressures. Next week, traders’ attention will remain focused on any development regarding potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a streak of US employment data that will culminate with Nonfarm Payrolls.
The economic calendar was light on Friday as many markets around the world were closed due to the Labor Day holiday. Still, in the US, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.7, below the expected 53.
In the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran submitted its latest negotiating proposal to Pakistan, acting as the mediator in talks with the United States. It was not immediately clear what was included in the new proposal, but Trump said that he can’t agree to the current demands from Tehran: “Iran wants to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied,” he said.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, discussed the latest initiatives of the Islamic Republic to end the war during phone calls with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, according to a ministry statement.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.20%
-0.12%
0.09%
-0.03%
-0.25%
-0.15%
-0.27%
EUR
0.20%
0.07%
0.28%
0.15%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.07%
GBP
0.12%
-0.07%
0.21%
0.09%
-0.12%
-0.04%
-0.12%
JPY
-0.09%
-0.28%
-0.21%
-0.12%
-0.34%
-0.28%
-0.36%
CAD
0.03%
-0.15%
-0.09%
0.12%
-0.23%
-0.14%
-0.22%
AUD
0.25%
0.04%
0.12%
0.34%
0.23%
0.08%
0.00%
NZD
0.15%
-0.03%
0.04%
0.28%
0.14%
-0.08%
-0.09%
CHF
0.27%
0.07%
0.12%
0.36%
0.22%
0.00%
0.09%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose to an almost two-week high near the 1.1780 level. The pair keeps the rally going for a second straight day after the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in Thursday’s meeting. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that tariffs on the European Union’s cars and trucks would rise to 25% from the current 15%, reviving trade war fears.
GBP/USD rose to the 1.3630 price region. The rise comes as investors move away from the US Dollar (USD) amid an improved risk mood after Iran offered to reach out to the US through Pakistan, aiming to finalize the peace deal once and for all.
USD/JPY steadied after dropping from 160.00 to 156.60 following the Japanese government’s intervention on Thursday. Data released on Friday showed the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April ex Fresh Food at 1.9%, down from last month’s 2.3%. The headline measure was released at 1.5%, up slightly from last month’s 1.4%.
AUD/USD ticked up towards the 0.7220 price zone as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for next Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 3%, below last month’s 3.5%.
Gold trades broadly unchanged at the $4,630 level as investors focus on riskier positions over the week’s end.
WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell near the $98.50 per barrel amid Iran’s Pakistan-driven US peace deal.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, May 4:
Eurogroup Meeting
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Williams speaks
ECB Nagel speaks
Tuesday, May 5:
RBA Press Conference
ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB President Lagarde speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
ECB Lane speaks
Fed Barr speaks
Wednesday, May 6:
ECB Lane speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Musalem speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Hammack speaks
Thursday, May 7:
ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB Elderson speaks
ECB Lane speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
Fed Hammack speaks
Fed Williams speaks
Friday, May 8:
ECB President Lagarde speaks
ECB De Guindos speaks
Fed Cook speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
ECB Nagel speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Waller speaks
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape markets
Monday, May 4:
Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge April YoY
Australian Building Permits March MoM
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI April
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May
US Factory Orders March MoM
Australian S&P PMIs April
Tuesday, May 5:
Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Australian RBA Rate Statement
Chinese Consumer Price Index April MoM YoY
US S&P PMIS April
US ISM Services PMIS
US JOLTS Job Openings March
US New Home Sales February and March MoM
New Zealand Employment data
Wednesday, May 6:
Chinese Caixin Services PMI April
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Services PMI April
Trump threatens to raise EU auto tariffs to 25% from 15%, weighing on the EUR/USD pair.
Trump says he isn’t happy about the latest proposal sent by Tehran, adding uncertainty and fueling safe-haven demand for the USD.
USD rebounds from two-week lows amid intensifying geopolitical risks.
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1730 level on Friday’s late American session, trimming almost all its intraday gains, after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened to raise the tariff rate on European Union (EU) cars and trucks from 15% to 25% and said he isn’t happy with the latest proposal sent by Iran to end the war.
Iran passed a peace talks offer through Pakistan to try and strike a deal with the US, though the details and demands from Tehran remain unknown. US President Trump claimed that “we made strides in talks with Iran, but I’m not sure we’re going to get to a deal,” and added that he is not satisfied with the current proposal because Iran is asking for things “he is not comfortable agreeing with”.
When asked about potential missile strikes on Iran, US President Trump said: “Why would I tell you that?”, adding to the uncertainty. The heightened uncertainty over the fate of the latest proposal has supported the US Dollar (USD) as a safe haven, whichhas recovered from a two-week low.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1730, hovering between nearby moving averages and maintaining a broadly neutral bias. The pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1713, which lends modest downside support, but it remains capped by the 100-period SMA at 1.1736 and the horizontal barrier at 1.1744. The Relative Strength Index around 53 hints at mildly positive momentum, yet the proximity of overhead levels suggests limited upside unless buyers can force a sustained break higher.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at 1.1736, followed by the horizontal hurdle at 1.1744. A clearance of these levels would open the way toward 1.1757 and then 1.1785. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nearby horizontal floor at 1.1729, with the 20-period SMA at 1.1713 reinforcing the underlying demand area. A break below this latter level would expose a deeper corrective phase in the short term.
Iran ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend, with the US blockade and the Strait of Hormuz closure both in place.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7 in April, missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Prices Paid index surged to 84.6.
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 in April from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion.
USD/CAD edged higher by less than 0.1% on Friday, recovering from an early-session low near 1.3560 to trade around 1.3590. The pair has shed roughly 0.6% on the week after rolling over from the 1.3700 area mid-week, and momentum has appeared sluggish close to 1.3580 as a cluster of small-bodied candles points to indecision.
The US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant drivers, keeping crude oil prices elevated and offering tailwinds to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend with both sides hardening their positions, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place despite intermittent administration claims of progress that markets have largely discounted.
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) held at 52.7 in April, narrowly missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Employment Index slumped to 46.4 and the Prices Paid component surged to 84.6, the highest reading in over four years. Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion. Markets now look ahead to next Friday’s heavy calendar, headlined by US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), with consensus pointing to 73K versus 178K previously, and Canadian employment data with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 6.7%.
USD/CAD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3587, hovering just above the daily open at 1.3580, which now acts as immediate intraday support. The pair has lost upside momentum after earlier gains, while the downward sloping resistance trend line drawn from 1.3680 continues to cap the broader recovery potential. The latest Stochastic RSI reading has retreated toward lower levels, hinting at fading bullish pressure and keeping the near-term tone broadly neutral while price oscillates around the opening level.
On the downside, a clear break back below the 1.3580 daily open would expose softer intraday levels and suggest that sellers are regaining control in the very short term. On the topside, the next meaningful barrier is the descending resistance line coming from 1.3680, and only a sustained move toward that region and a subsequent break higher would start to undermine the broader corrective bias and open the way for a more convincing upside extension.
In the one-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3589, holding a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains capped by a downward-sloping trend-line resistance coming in around 1.3680. The lack of nearby moving averages in the dataset keeps the focus on this structural barrier, while the Stochastic RSI has pushed into elevated territory above 70 recently, hinting that upside attempts could face exhaustion below the mentioned trend line.
On the topside, the immediate obstacle is the descending trend-line resistance at 1.3680, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way to a stronger recovery. With no clearly defined intraday supports in the provided data, any pullback from current levels would likely see traders looking to prior session lows and intraday swing points below 1.3589 for initial demand, while an inability to challenge 1.3680 would keep the pair vulnerable to further downside probing.
AUD/USD trades near range highs within 0.7100–0.7200 consolidation band.
RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum and potential breakout scenario.
Break above 0.7250 targets 0.7282 and 0.7300 resistance levels.
AUD/USD holds to minimal gains of 0.10% late in the North American session, yet poised to finish the week up 0.84%. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 0.7200 as the ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern caps the Aussie on the downside.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD trades near the top of a 100-pip consolidation range between 0.7100 and 0.7200, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting above its neutral level.
On the upside, the first resistance for AUD/USD is the psychological 0.7250 level. If cleared, the next stop would be the June 3, 2022, high of 0.7282 ahead of the 0.7300 area. The next area of interest would be on April 5, 2022, at 0.7661
Conversely, if AUD/USD ends the day below 0.7200, it could open the door for testing the 20-day SMA at 0.7121. Below this level is 0.7100 ─the bottom of the 100-pip range─, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.7059
GBP/JPY rebounds modestly after earlier sell-off likely triggered by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.
Technically, the cross holds a bullish bias above key moving averages, though weakening momentum signals fading upside strength.
The 100-day SMA offers immediate support, while 213.50 acts as the first upside hurdle.
GBP/JPY stages a modest rebound on Friday after coming under selling pressure earlier in the day amid suspected intervention by Tokyo for a second straight day to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 213.42, recovering from an intraday low of 211.81 and poised to end the week in negative territory for the first time in four weeks.
However, there has been no official confirmation of intervention by Japanese authorities so far, though officials issued a “final” warning on Thursday after USD/JPY briefly moved past the 160 level, a threshold that has previously triggered action. This move spilled across Yen crosses, with GBP/JPY posting a sharp pullback from a multi-year high near 216.60 to around 210.45 the previous day.
Although underlying fundamentals, including wide interest rate differentials between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks, continue to weigh on the Yen, the latest leg lower suggests near-term downside pressure on the cross as momentum indicators turn negative.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/JPY holds a constructive bias while consolidating above its key trend filters. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA sit comfortably below the spot, suggesting underlying demand despite the recent pullback.
However, momentum has cooled, with the Relative Strength Index easing toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping into negative territory, hinting that upside attempts may lack follow-through in the very near term.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 214.50, where a daily close above would reopen the path toward the recent peak of 216.60 and signal renewed bullish impulse.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 211.89, with a break there exposing deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA at 206.74, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.19%
-0.14%
0.02%
-0.19%
-0.06%
0.12%
-0.11%
EUR
0.19%
0.04%
0.18%
-0.01%
0.15%
0.30%
0.08%
GBP
0.14%
-0.04%
0.15%
-0.04%
0.09%
0.26%
0.06%
JPY
-0.02%
-0.18%
-0.15%
-0.20%
-0.08%
0.07%
-0.12%
CAD
0.19%
0.01%
0.04%
0.20%
0.12%
0.29%
0.10%
AUD
0.06%
-0.15%
-0.09%
0.08%
-0.12%
0.16%
-0.02%
NZD
-0.12%
-0.30%
-0.26%
-0.07%
-0.29%
-0.16%
-0.20%
CHF
0.11%
-0.08%
-0.06%
0.12%
-0.10%
0.02%
0.20%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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