AUD/USD softens to around 0.7005 in Mondayโs early European session.ย
Uncertainty clouded the US-Iranย peace deal following threats from Trump.ย
RBA hawkish pause could underpin the Aussie.ย
Theย AUD/USDย pair loses traction to near 0.7005 during the early European trading hours on Monday, pressured by risk-off sentiment. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal following fresh threats from US President Donald Trump.ย
The US-Iran peace talks took place on Sunday in Bรผrgenstock, Switzerland, with delegations from Iran, the US, Qatar, and Pakistan participating. On Monday, Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on the conclusion of negotiations, saying that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere.
Earlier on Monday, the Tasnimย newsย agency cited an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that โa formal transit mechanism was successfully arranged to guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.โ
However, markets remain cautious since Trump over the weekend threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel. Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement could weigh on the riskier asset, such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD).
On the other hand, a hawkish interest rate hold from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might help limit the Aussieโs losses. The RBA decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% after its June monetary policy meeting last week. This is a pause following three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate hikes earlier this year.
Despite leaving the interest rate unchanged, the board members signaled that further rate hikes might be necessary to achieve its goals.
The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.572, the lowest in eleven weeks, weighed down by a firm US dollar. The greenback strengthens amid increased bets on a US rate hike following the Federal Reserveโs hawkish signals. Meanwhile, USโIran talks in Switzerland have made encouraging progress, with technical-level discussions set to continue this week, easing earlier concerns after President Donald Trump again warned of strikes on Iran over its support for Hezbollah. New Zealandโs GDP data released last week suggested that economic recovery was gaining momentum. However, the figures largely reflected conditions prior to the escalation in Middle East conflict. As a result, forecasts show GDP to barely grow or even contract in the second quarter. Markets continue to price in a 25-bps hike in July given the RBNZโs hawkish outlook, though swap pricing imply only two increases this year rather than the three previously expected.
The dollar index traded around 100.8 on Monday, remaining close to its strongest level since May 2025 as investors assessed evolving developments in US-Iran peace negotiations while awaiting a key US inflation reading. Reports suggested that Washington and Tehran had agreed on a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, easing concerns after both sides exchanged fresh threats linked to the conflict in Lebanon. Market participants are now focused on this week’s US PCE price index release, the Federal Reserveโs preferred measure of inflation. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged but struck a more hawkish tone. Nine of the 19 policymakers now anticipate at least one rate increase before the end of the year, with markets increasingly pricing in a potential hike as early as September. Elsewhere, traders continued to monitor the Japanese yen amid rising intervention concerns and the British pound against the backdrop of political uncertainty in London.
The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.77 per dollar on Monday, trimming losses from the previous session as broader market sentiment improved on progress in US-Iran talks while investors assessed the People’s Bank of China’s decision to leave its key lending rates unchanged. The PBoC maintained the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% for a thirteenth consecutive month, underscoring policymakersโ cautious approach as they seek to sustain growth while safeguarding financial stability. China’s economic recovery remains uneven. While resilient exports continue to provide support, domestic consumption and the property sector remain subdued. Meanwhile, the US and Iran reported constructive progress in negotiations aimed at easing regional tensions, with both sides agreeing on a roadmap toward a potential final agreement within 60 days and the establishment of a direct communication channel designed to reduce the risk of incidents and miscalculations.
The Japanese yen weakened to around 161.5 per dollar on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since 1986 as repeated verbal interventions from Tokyo failed to halt the currencyโs decline. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities stood ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves at any time, echoing earlier warnings. The yen has now surrendered all the gains made on April 30, when officials carried out a record-sized market intervention to support the currency. The latest drop came despite the Bank of Japanโs ongoing policy normalization, including a 25-basis-point interest rate increase to 1% last week. The currency also remained under pressure from heavy carry-trade activity, as investors continued to favor short yen positions amid the still-wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US.
The South Korean won weakened to around 1,538 per dollar, remaining under pressure as the US dollar stayed firm. Markets continued to price in the possibility of further Fed tightening, while investors awaited key US inflation data later this week for additional clues on the interest-rate path. Higher US yields continued to support dollar-denominated assets, reducing the appeal of emerging Asian currencies and contributing to broader strength in the greenback. The won also faced headwinds from renewed Middle East uncertainty, with oil prices rising amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations and concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, South Koreaโs exports surged 60.4% year-on-year in the first 20 days of June, driven by robust semiconductor shipments amid strong global AI-related demand. This supported expectations of continued foreign-currency inflows from overseas sales.
The Indian rupee hovered near 94.3 per dollar, steadying after reaching six-week highs as easing geopolitical tensions and softer crude oil prices supported sentiment. Oil prices declined after Iranian officials reported progress in negotiations with the United States, with Brent crude for August delivery falling 1.7% to $79.24 per barrel following signs of constructive talks in Switzerland. However, uncertainty persisted after US President Donald Trump warned that military action against Iran could resume, even as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials under an interim peace arrangement. Tehran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz added to market caution. Gains were partly capped as the dollar index held just below 101 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, though it remained below recent peaks. Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation and growth data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
The week ahead will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors digest the first Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and look ahead to the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, global PMI releases, and central-bank commentary.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 100.70 price zone on Friday after reaching a 13-month high of 101.13 earlier in the day. The Greenback rose sharply this week following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and removing its previous reference to โadditional rate adjustmentsโ . A hotter-than-expected PCE report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and extend the upward USD’s trend.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.16%
-0.22%
-0.06%
0.25%
-0.02%
0.23%
0.28%
EUR
0.16%
-0.05%
0.13%
0.41%
0.14%
0.37%
0.44%
GBP
0.22%
0.05%
0.17%
0.45%
0.21%
0.44%
0.50%
JPY
0.06%
-0.13%
-0.17%
0.30%
0.06%
0.27%
0.33%
CAD
-0.25%
-0.41%
-0.45%
-0.30%
-0.22%
-0.03%
0.03%
AUD
0.02%
-0.14%
-0.21%
-0.06%
0.22%
0.21%
0.30%
NZD
-0.23%
-0.37%
-0.44%
-0.27%
0.03%
-0.21%
0.05%
CHF
-0.28%
-0.44%
-0.50%
-0.33%
-0.03%
-0.30%
-0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD declined over 0.80% this week to the 1.1480 level amid a broadly strong US Dollar. The Eurozone calendar will keep its eyes on flash PMI data, which should give investors a clearer view of whether activity remains fragile across manufacturing and services. Germany will also be important, with flash PMIs, the Ifo Business Climate survey, and GfK Consumer Confidence due during the week. Any signs of weaker German business sentiment could weigh on the Euro, especially after ECB officials warned about uncertainty around energy prices, inflation transmission, and second-round wage effects.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3230, with a strong weekly decline, after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers supporting a hike to 4.00%. Next week, the United Kingdom (UK) flash PMIs and final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be key for the Pound Sterling.
USD/JPY remains near intervention levels at 161.30, focused on the balance between Fed caution and the Bank of Japanโs (BoJ) tightening bias. The BoJ recently raised interest rates to 1.00%, while officials continue to warn that inflation risks could require further action. Japanโs flash PMIs, Tokyo CPI, and comments from BoJ officials will be watched closely.
AUD/USD fell this week toward the 0.7020 level, a significant domestic test as Australia releases flash PMIs, monthly CPI, and labor market data. A stronger CPI print or resilient employment data could support the Aussie, while weaker numbers may leave AUD/USD vulnerable to renewed US Dollar strength.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles near the $4,155 level as geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the Middle East could limit downside for the precious metal.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell for a second consecutive week near $76.50 per barrel as the US-Iran agreed a peace deal, weighing on Oil prices. Markets will watch whether Oil flows continue to normalize, as lower energy prices could ease inflation fears and influence central-bank expectations.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, June 22
ECB President Lagarde
Fedโs Waller
ECB President Lagarde
Tuesday, June 23
ECBโs Lane
BoC Governor Macklem
ECBโs Elderson
ECBโs Vujฤiฤ
BoEโs Taylor
BoEโs Dhingra
Wednesday, June 24
ECBโs Nagel
BoEโs Breeden
ECBโs Cipollone
BoEโs Dhingra
Thursday, June 25
ECBโs Philip
ECBโs Cipollone
Fedโs Williams
Fedโs Goolsbee
Friday, June 26
ECBโs Nagel
Fedโs Williams
ECBโs Vujฤiฤ
Saturday, June 27
ECBโs Schnabel
RBA Governor Bullock
Central banksโ meetings and policy decisions to shape markets
No major Fed, BoE, BoJ, or RBA interest rate decisions are scheduled for the week, leaving investors focused on speeches, incoming data, and the market interpretation of the latest policy meetings.
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