Forex - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – USDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCHF

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDJPY
Since February 12, the USDJPY has been trading in a strong uptrend. Initially, the movement was controlled by a 1:1 corrective pattern with a range of approximately 140 pips; however, in mid-March, a deeper correction occurred, after which the market established a new high. As a result, the current largest corrective pattern has a range of approximately 240 pips. At this point, the key support level is 158.10, derived from the lower boundary of this pattern. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains in place. A break below it, however, could open the way for a larger correction or even a trend reversal.

USDJPY – H4 chart. Source: xStation

NZDUSD
The NZDUSD pair has been trending downward since late January. We are currently seeing an upward corrective move. If the correction continues, the key resistance level remains at 0.5845, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 correction pattern is located. According to the Overbalance methodology, the downtrend remains in effect until this level is negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

USDCHF
Since early January, USDCHF has been in a downtrend. However, an upward correction has been developing since late January, and its range has already exceeded smaller geometric patterns, including the 0.7902 level. Nevertheless, the price has failed to break through the key resistance at 0.8042, where the upper boundary of the largest corrective pattern is located. According to the Overbalance methodology, the downtrend remains in effect until this level is broken. The decline could accelerate after falling below the 0.7902 level, which is the lower boundary of the smaller geometric pattern. Conversely, a break above 0.8042 could lead to a shift to an uptrend.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

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Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Chart of The Day – Oil Rebounds Sharply

Brent crude is surging back above $100 per barrel (OIL: +7.6%), erasing nearly all losses from the last three sessions. Donald Trump’s address failed to outline any concrete “exit strategies” for the conflict, and his hawkish tone undermined market optimism that had previously bet on a rebound following Iran’s declarations of being ready for peace talks.

The OIL contract is dynamically returning above the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA10, yellow), confirming a strong upward trend. However, the price is approaching a repeatedly tested resistance level at $110, and a nearly overbought RSI (near 70) may limit gains above this threshold. Source: xStation5

What is driving the rise in OIL today?

In his address, Donald Trump announced that the strategic goals of “Operation Epic Fury” are near completion and that the war in Iran will last approximately another two to three weeks. He vowed the final destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, threatening strikes on energy infrastructure. While the address largely repeated many of Trump’s known stances, his comments regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the overall bellicose tone eroded the optimism seen in recent sessions.
The US President downplayed the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the United States, claiming the country is energy independent. He called on Asian and European nations to protect the route themselves, suggesting they purchase American oil instead. Experts are challenging his optimism regarding a rapid drop in fuel prices, pointing to permanent infrastructure damage and record energy costs in the US (exceeding $4 per gallon).
Iranian military officials responded to Trump’s address by vowing to continue the war until the “humiliation and surrender” of the US and Israel. Tehran dismissed claims that its military has been weakened, threatening “even more powerful and destructive strikes.” The Iranian command emphasized that Washington underestimates their strategic capabilities, and Trump’s vows to “bring them back to the stone age” only escalate the conflict, ruling out a quick truce.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stands tall above 0.8700 in risk-off markets

EUR/GBP maintains its near-term bullish trend intact, with 0.8700 support capping bears.
Upbeat Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support to the Euro on Wednesday.
The pair is likely to meet significant resistance at the 0.8740-0.8750 area.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found buyers right above 0.08700 on Wednesday, and the pair has trimmed losses on Thursday, returning to the 0.8720 area at the time of writing.

The Euro (EUR) seems to be faring better than the British Pound (GBP) amid the risk-averse market mood, and keeps the bullish bias from mid-March lows intact. The positive Eurozone manufacturing data provided some support for the common currency on Wednesday, while UK factory activity failed to convince investors.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at the 0.8740-08750 area

The 4-hour chart shows EUR/GBP trading at 0.8724 amid a mildly bullish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index stays above 60, indicating sustained upside momentum, although the bearish cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line suggests that upside pressure might be fading.

The pair is likely to require some extra impulse to extend its rally beyond the resistance area between 0.8740, where bulls were capped on March 3, 31, and April 1, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the early March reversal, at 0.8752. A confirmation above these levels would bring the year-to-date high, at the 0.8790 area, back to the focus.

To the downside, bears would need to breach Wednesday’s low, at 0.8704, and the March 31 low, at 0.8676, to negate the bullish view.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.51%	0.71%	0.49%	0.25%	0.64%	0.63%	0.63%
EUR	-0.51%		0.21%	-0.04%	-0.28%	0.15%	0.14%	0.09%
GBP	-0.71%	-0.21%		-0.23%	-0.48%	-0.05%	-0.05%	-0.12%
JPY	-0.49%	0.04%	0.23%		-0.24%	0.15%	0.14%	0.10%
CAD	-0.25%	0.28%	0.48%	0.24%		0.39%	0.38%	0.34%
AUD	-0.64%	-0.15%	0.05%	-0.15%	-0.39%		-0.01%	-0.08%
NZD	-0.63%	-0.14%	0.05%	-0.14%	-0.38%	0.01%		-0.05%
CHF	-0.63%	-0.09%	0.12%	-0.10%	-0.34%	0.08%	0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

41, with a break higher exposing 0.8800 and then 0.8863. On the downside, initial support comes in at 0.8705, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8721 turning into a pivot area if broken, while the 38.2% retracement at 0.8680 aligns with prior price congestion as the next key floor. A deeper pullback would bring 0.8677 into view, where a failure to hold would signal that the current bullish phase is losing traction.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Sterling Slides as Trump’s Address Deepens Middle East Uncertainty

The British pound slipped toward $1.32, nearing its lowest point since late November, as investor caution resurfaced after President Donald Trump’s prime-time address provided no clear end in sight for the Middle East conflict. Trump affirmed that the US operation was nearly complete but vowed escalated actions, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks. The lack of new justifications for the war further weighed on market sentiment.

Ongoing uncertainty and inflationary pressures have prompted a reassessment of Bank of England policy expectations. Investors now anticipate two interest rate hikes in 2026, reversing four days of reduced bets that had left expectations below two hikes by yesterday’s close. Even so, this remains below last week’s peak, when markets briefly priced in as many as four increases. The shift comes despite Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent warning that markets were overestimating the likelihood of hikes.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Euro Dips as Trump’s Address Fuels Middle East Uncertainty

The euro retreated toward $1.15 as investor caution returned following President Donald Trump’s prime-time address, which offered no clear timeline for resolving the Middle East conflict. While Trump stated that the US operation was nearing completion, he also vowed more aggressive measures, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks.

The absence of new justifications for the war further dampened market confidence. Amid persistent uncertainty and growing inflation fears, markets are revisiting expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy direction. Investors now foresee three interest rate hikes in 2026, an increase from the two anticipated just yesterday. Before the conflict, expectations had leaned toward no hikes at all, with some even speculating about potential monetary easing.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Tests nine-day EMA support after easing below 184.00

EUR/JPY may encounter initial resistance near 184.70 at the upper ascending triangle boundary.
The Relative Strength Index near 52 indicates steady momentum.
Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 183.80.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross is moving sideways within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating consolidation. However, the structure reflects rising support levels meeting a relatively flat resistance zone, signaling building pressure that could lead to a breakout. A sustained move above resistance would confirm bullish continuation.

The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the nine-day EMA tracks just beneath spot, reinforcing a shallow upward slope. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 stays above its midline and confirms steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum, with recent pullbacks finding demand before the medium-term average.

The EUR/JPY cross may find the initial resistance around the upper ascending triangle boundary at 184.70. A successful break above this triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 183.39. Further support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.80. A break below the channel would expose a nearly four-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.46%	0.55%	0.37%	0.28%	0.72%	0.71%	0.53%
EUR	-0.46%		0.09%	-0.11%	-0.21%	0.27%	0.26%	0.06%
GBP	-0.55%	-0.09%		-0.19%	-0.28%	0.18%	0.19%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.37%	0.11%	0.19%		-0.10%	0.35%	0.34%	0.15%
CAD	-0.28%	0.21%	0.28%	0.10%		0.45%	0.43%	0.25%
AUD	-0.72%	-0.27%	-0.18%	-0.35%	-0.45%		-0.01%	-0.23%
NZD	-0.71%	-0.26%	-0.19%	-0.34%	-0.43%	0.00%		-0.20%
CHF	-0.53%	-0.06%	0.03%	-0.15%	-0.25%	0.23%	0.20%

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF rises above 0.7950 ahead of Swiss CPI inflation data

USD/CHF climbs to near 0.7985 in Thursday’s early European session.
Trump said the US’s war objectives are nearing completion and threatening to hit Iran hard over the next two to three weeks.
The Swiss March CPI inflation data will be released on Thursday.

The USD/CHF pair jumps to around 0.7985 during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) following an address to the nation by US President Donald Trump. Traders will keep an eye on the Swiss March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is due later on Thursday.

Trump said during a primetime televised speech from the White House on Thursday that his core “objectives are nearing completion” in Iran and expected another two or three weeks of involvement. Nonetheless, he signaled that the US is prepared to intensify its military response in the remaining time period and threatened to bring Iran “back to the stone ages.” Persistent tensions between the US and Iran could underpin the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office will publish its inflation data on Thursday. The monthly and annual CPI are expected to show a rise of 0.5% for March. The persistent low inflation has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to maintain a cautious stance.

Traders will shift their attention to the US jobs data on Friday. Markets expect the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to show 60,000 in March, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. If the reports show weaker-than-expected outcomes, this could undermine the USD against the CHF.

Currency Hedger April 2, 2026 No Comments

Offshore Yuan Snaps 3-Session Gains

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.88 per dollar, ending a three-day winning streak as the greenback gained strength amid mounting uncertainties over a possible easing of the Middle East conflict. The US dollar rose as investors pared back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, amid concerns that a surge in oil prices driven by the conflict could stoke rising inflation.

During his speech, Trump said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion and likely to meet its objectives in the coming weeks, while warning that military operations could intensify. Meanwhile, the PBoC drained CNY 890 billion through short-term operations and absorbed another CNY 250 billion via longer-term tools, reversing months of liquidity support after the economy’s deepest slowdown since reopening from Covid lockdowns in 2022. With growth rebounding and oil prices elevated by the Iran war, the central bank appears focused on curbing inflation while gradually steering China out of record deflation.