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CAD remains depressed vs firmer USD; rising Oil prices limit further losses

  • USD/CAD trades with positive bias for the fourth straight day amid a broadly firmer USD.
  • Iran tensions and hawkish Fed expectations turn out to be key factors supporting the USD.
  • Rising Crude Oil prices could underpin the Loonie and cap further upside for spot prices.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying following Friday’s late pullback from the vicinity of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and climbs back closer to the 1.3700 during the Asian session on Monday. This marks the fourth straight day of a positive move – also the sixth in the previous seven – and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) strength.

The recent optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and the de-escalation of conflict faded rather quickly in the wake of renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump and Iran both rejected each other’s peace proposals for ending the war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and benefits the safe-haven USD, offering some support to the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical uncertainties trigger a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices, reviving inflationary fears. Adding to this, the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, fuelled expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) and turned out to be another factor underpinning the Greenback. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, is weighed down by the disappointing monthly employment details, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.9% in April.

That said, rising Crude Oil prices might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the commodity-linked Loonie and cap any further upside for the USD/CAD pair. Even from a technical perspective, Friday’s failure ahead of the 100-day SMA makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the said barrier before positioning for any further gains. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data, spot prices remain at the mercy of USD/Oil price dynamics.

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USD/CHF moves to near 0.7785 as hopes of US-Iran truce in near term fades

  • The USD/CHF pair rises to near 0.7785 as the US dismisses Iran’s response to its peace proposal.
  • Iran wants the recognition of its authority near the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for war damages.
  • Investors await US President Trump’s visit to China from May 13 to May 15.

The USD/CHF pair holds opening gains around 0.7785 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its peers amid the return of the risk-off impulse due to diminished hopes of an immediate breakthrough in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.24%0.31%0.31%0.08%0.21%0.34%0.30%
EUR-0.24%0.08%0.04%-0.19%-0.02%0.11%0.06%
GBP-0.31%-0.08%0.00%-0.26%-0.09%0.02%-0.02%
JPY-0.31%-0.04%0.00%-0.24%-0.06%0.05%-0.01%
CAD-0.08%0.19%0.26%0.24%0.17%0.24%0.23%
AUD-0.21%0.02%0.09%0.06%-0.17%0.11%0.07%
NZD-0.34%-0.11%-0.02%-0.05%-0.24%-0.11%-0.03%
CHF-0.30%-0.06%0.02%0.00%-0.23%-0.07%0.03%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% higher to near 98.10. S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% to 7,390, indicating a cautious market mood.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that Iran’s response to the US peace proposal is “totally unacceptable”. According to Iranian state media, Iran’s proposal stresses US compensation for war damages, the recognition of Tehran’s authority on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, CNN reported. Iran’s proposal also demands the release of frozen Iranian assets as well as the lifting of sanctions.

Dashed hopes of a permanent truce between the US and Iran in the near term have lifted global oil prices, prompting fears, combined with strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates this year.

Meanwhile, investors shift their focus to the US President Trump’s visit to China on May 13-15, in which market experts believe Trump to urge Beijing to leverage its influence over Iran for a comprehensive ceasefire and a resolution to the energy disruption amid the Hormuz closure, according to analysts at IG markets.

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EUR/JPY – Tests 50-day EMA barrier near 185.00

  • EUR/JPY is challenging immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 47 indicates momentum has eased toward neutral territory.
  • The primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.75.

EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 184.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross consolidating in a neutral tone as it holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA.

This tight EMA squeeze hints at an indecisive market after the recent pullback, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 suggests momentum has cooled toward neutral rather than signaling outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.86. A successful break above the medium-term averages would support the bullish momentum and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

The EUR/JPY cross is positioned slightly above the nine-day EMA at 184.75. A sustained break below the short-term average would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around a nearly 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.25%0.32%0.31%0.10%0.22%0.36%0.34%
EUR-0.25%0.07%0.04%-0.18%-0.01%0.12%0.08%
GBP-0.32%-0.07%-0.02%-0.25%-0.10%0.04%0.00%
JPY-0.31%-0.04%0.02%-0.21%-0.04%0.07%0.03%
CAD-0.10%0.18%0.25%0.21%0.17%0.24%0.24%
AUD-0.22%0.01%0.10%0.04%-0.17%0.11%0.09%
NZD-0.36%-0.12%-0.04%-0.07%-0.24%-0.11%-0.02%
CHF-0.34%-0.08%-0.00%-0.03%-0.24%-0.09%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD up 0.4% Before The NFP

Key takeaways

  • The US dollar is weakening ahead of the report’s release.
  • The market is pricing in no change to US interest rates through the end of the year.
  • A weak reading could boost expectations for rate cuts.

USD remains under pressure despite this morning’s headlines, which cast doubt on the sustainability of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The April NFP report on the US labour market is due to be released at 14:30, and will serve as a significant test for the dollar, which has been losing ground in recent days. The US currency remains under pressure despite this morning’s headlines, which cast doubt on the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire.

Latest reading March saw a particularly strong reading. The number of non-farm payrolls far exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, reaching its highest level since December 2024 (178k). In contrast, the unemployment rate (4.3%) and wage growth (3.5%) fell unexpectedly. The reading signalled that the Fed is not forced to cut interest rates hastily, which, given the rapid rise in energy prices, was exceptionally valuable.

Geopolitical context The situation on the geopolitical front remains tense. A glimmer of optimism came from Wednesday’s reports by Axios regarding work on a peace memorandum. Yesterday evening, however, the press was abuzz with speculation about a resumption of military action should a lasting agreement between the US and Iran not be reached before Trump’s visit to China. This is scheduled for 14–15 May.

Monetary policy

The data is of fundamental importance to the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate requiring it to focus on both price stability and maximising employment. The markets are undecided as to the direction the FOMC will take in the coming months. The inflation situation is causing growing concern, which led to a significant split within the committee at its last meeting – as many as three of its members opposed the so-called “easing bias”, i.e. the preference for lower interest rates in the medium term. The April inflation reading, due next Tuesday, is expected to show the headline measure rising to 3.7%. However, policymakers will focus primarily on the core measure, wage growth and inflation expectations, as they are unable to exert much influence over inflation driven by supply-side factors, such as rising energy prices. Markets are currently pricing in no change to interest rates until the end of 2026.

A weak reading, suggesting that the labour market situation is deteriorating, moving away from the still relatively safe low fire-low hire status, may signal that the economy will need a monetary stimulus. This is, in any case, consistent with the rather dovish rhetoric presented by Kevin Warsh, who will take the helm of the FOMC from its next meeting. A strong reading could, in turn, help the Committee to focus almost all its attention on the inflation situation, swelling the ranks of the hawks, which already appear to be numerous following the last meeting.

Current data

The most recent data – weekly jobless claims – are particularly noteworthy; a week ago they fell to 189k, the lowest level since 1969, remaining at low levels this week (200k). The ADP data also showed healthy levels (although since the pandemic, their correlation with the NFPs has been significantly weaker). Chart: NFP and ADP data (2015 – 2026)

Source: XTB, 08/05/2026

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Trade of The Day – USD/CAD

Facts:

  • The pair is testing the +1 standard deviation line of the anchored VWAP, calculated from 2 January 2025
  • Canada is one of the world’s leading oil exporters

Recommendation:

  • Long position on USDCAD at market price
  • SL: 1.35575
  • Target Price: 1.38880

Opinion:

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading around 1.3647, within a support zone defined by key volume patterns from the volume profile built since the start of 2025. Both the Stop Loss (1.35575) and Take Profit (1.38880) levels have been set in relation to the largest volume clusters visible on the profile – zones of historically high market activity which act as strong technical barriers. The price is approaching the lower boundary of a multi-month consolidation phase, and the 1.3620–1.3660 zone has repeatedly acted as a support level triggering upward movements, which confirms the validity of opening a technical long position.

The key fundamental argument is the CAD’s dependence on oil prices – Canada is one of the leading exporters of crude oil, and the Canadian dollar functions de facto as a petrodollar, meaning that any further falls in oil prices directly weaken the CAD and support an increase in USD/CAD. Given the growing oversupply in the oil market and the expected increase in production by OPEC countries, the risk of continued pressure on oil prices remains real, which further favours the long side on this pair, following a fairly significant depreciation over the long term.

Although the money markets are pricing in a more hawkish shift in the Bank of Canada’s stance in the future compared to the current one, the spread in short-term yields between the US and Canada (1M: 3.64 vs. 2.25) still points to a carry trade in favour of the USD. However, we recommend exercising particular caution, as the fundamental environment for this pair may change rapidly and thus undermine the current basis for this recommendation.

Source: xStation

Methodology and assumptions:

The recommendation is based on a technical and fundamental analysis of the USD/CAD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyse the trend.

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EUR/GBP holds losses near 0.8650 after weaker German Industrial Production data

  • EUR/GBP loses ground to near 0.8650 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • German Industrial Production falls 0.7% MoM in March, weaker than expected. 
  • BoE’s Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation. 

The EUR/GBP cross holds losses around 0.8650 during the early European session on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on the downbeat German economic data. Traders brace for the speeches from the European Central Bank policymakers later on Friday, including Christine Lagarde,  Luis de Guindos, Piero Cipollone, Isabel Schnabel , and Joachim Nagel. 

Data released by Destatis on Friday revealed that Germany’s industrial sector activity fell sharply in March, with Industrial Production falling by 0.7% MoM, versus a decline of 0.5% prior (revised from -0.3%). This figure came in weaker than the expectation of a 0.5% rise. 

Annually, German Industrial Production arrived at -2.8% in March, following February’s revised 0.2% decrease. The Euro edges slightly lower against the GBP in an immediate reaction to the worse-than-expected German report.

Hawkish remarks from the ECB officials might help limit the EUR’s losses. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel bolstered expectations that the bank could raise interest rates as soon as next month, saying companies and households were now reacting in a concerning way to surging global energy prices.

Meanwhile, ECB board member Piero Cipollone noted on Wednesday that the chance of a central bank rate hike has risen as ‌inflation pressures are high, even as negotiated wage data showed pay demands had yet to increase.

On the UK’s front, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to hold the bank rate steady at 3.75% as widely expected at the last meeting, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation.

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Japanese Yen gathers strength on reports of FX intervention during May holidays

  • USD/JPY edges lower to near 156.85 in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market again during the May holidays. 
  • The US April employment report will be the highlight on Friday. 

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 156.85 during the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following another intervention by Japanese authorities. Markets might turn cautious later on Friday ahead of the US April employment report. 

Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May after having conducted Japanese yen-buying operations on April 30. The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”

The potential for further interventions could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura said on Thursday that authorities are prepared to respond on all fronts to speculative moves in the foreign exchange market. 

All eyes will be on the US employment report for April, which is due on Friday. Market consensus estimates  62,000 new jobs in April. This would be a sharp drop from the 178,000 jobs added in March. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.

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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around 184.00 as near-term bearish bias maintains

  • EUR/JPY may fall toward the 11-week low around 181.87.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.75, signaling persistent downside pressure.
  • The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.62.

EUR/JPY steadies after posting a little gain in the previous trading day, hovering around 184.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross extends a corrective phase below the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias as dynamic resistance overhead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.75 hovers below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists but without entering oversold territory, leaving room for further weakness if sellers retain control.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

The EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 184.62, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.84. A successful break above the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.03%-0.09%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.05%0.00%-0.04%-0.02%-0.10%-0.02%0.04%
GBP0.03%-0.00%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%-0.03%0.03%
JPY0.09%0.04%0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.01%0.07%
CAD0.07%0.02%0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.04%0.04%
AUD0.15%0.10%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.09%0.14%
NZD0.11%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.04%-0.09%0.06%
CHF0.03%-0.04%-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).