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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around 184.00 as near-term bearish bias maintains

  • EUR/JPY may fall toward the 11-week low around 181.87.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.75, signaling persistent downside pressure.
  • The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.62.

EUR/JPY steadies after posting a little gain in the previous trading day, hovering around 184.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross extends a corrective phase below the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias as dynamic resistance overhead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.75 hovers below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists but without entering oversold territory, leaving room for further weakness if sellers retain control.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

The EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 184.62, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.84. A successful break above the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.03%-0.09%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.05%0.00%-0.04%-0.02%-0.10%-0.02%0.04%
GBP0.03%-0.00%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%-0.03%0.03%
JPY0.09%0.04%0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.01%0.07%
CAD0.07%0.02%0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.04%0.04%
AUD0.15%0.10%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.09%0.14%
NZD0.11%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.04%-0.09%0.06%
CHF0.03%-0.04%-0.03%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Advances on improved risk sentiment, holds bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY gains ground near 113.20 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with modest bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 113.65; the initial support level to watch is 112.50. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.20 during the early European session on Friday. A potential truce between the United States (US) and Iran improves risk sentiment, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US President Donald Trump administration has been waiting for Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.

On the other hand, fears of further interventions from Japanese authorities might help limit the JPY’s losses. Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May after having conducted Japanese Yen-buying operations on April 30. The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the Bollinger Bands (20) show price consolidating in the upper half of the envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, hinting that upside pressure is moderating but not yet reversing.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day simple moving average near 113.65, ahead of the recent Bollinger upper band peak around 114.75. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 112.50 offers the first line of support. The key contention level to watch is the 100.00 psychological level, with the more important dynamic floor coming in at the 100-day EMA around 109.65, where a break would be needed to undermine the prevailing bullish structure.

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USD/CHF stays above 0.7800 as US Dollar steadies on market caution

  • USD/CHF stays firm as the US Dollar holds steady amid caution following US strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
  • Middle East tensions eased after Israel and Iran separately signaled a temporary pause in hostilities.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to rise by 62K in April, following a 178K increase in March.

USD/CHF holds gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.7810 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm following modest gains recorded in the previous session.

Traders remain cautious after the US military carried out strikes on the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command confirmed that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks against USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason while the guided-missile destroyers were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to the official statement, CENTCOM described the Iranian action as unprovoked and said US forces responded under their right to self-defense.

However, renewed tensions in the Middle East eased after separate comments from Israel and Iran indicated that hostilities had temporarily subsided. US President Donald Trump also said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place. A senior US official told Fox News that the recent strikes do not represent a restart of the war and should not be viewed as the end of the current ceasefire arrangement.

The Trump administration is awaiting Iran’s reply to a proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the nearly 10-week conflict. However, tensions remain elevated across the Persian Gulf and Lebanon. Reports suggest that Tehran is expected to send its response through Pakistan within the next two days.

Later in the day, market participants will monitor Switzerland’s SECO Consumer Climate (3m) data for Q2. Investors will also turn their attention to the US April employment report, which is expected to show that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 62K jobs in April, down from 178K in March, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

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US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to rise by 62K in April

  • Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 62K in April.
  • The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.
  • The USD is set to experience heightened volatility heading into the weekend.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT. 

Investors will scrutinize the underlying details of the employment report to assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to consider an interest-rate cut later in the year. 

What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?

Investors expect NFP to rise by 62K following the surprisingly strong 178K increase recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to rise to 3.8% from 3.5%.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect to see signs of stabilization in the labor market after three volatile months.

“NFP likely increased 80K, with 85K private gains and 5K government job losses. Healthcare and leisure & hospitality will likely support most of the improvement. The Unemployment Rate rate should continue showing stabilization at 4.3%. We also expect Average Hourly Earnings to stay modest at 0.2% m/m, with the y/y moving up to 3.7%,” they add.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported earlier in the week that employment in the private sector rose by 109K in April. This print followed the 61K (revised from 62K) increase reported in March. Assessing the report’s findings, “small and large employers are hiring, but we’re seeing softness in the middle,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. Meanwhile, the Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey improved to 48 in April from 45.2 in March, reflecting an ongoing contraction in the service sector payrolls, albeit at a softening pace. 

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NOK surges following Norges Bank’s rate hike

Key takeaways

  • Norges Bank raises interest rates by 25 bp.
  • The key interest rate is up to 4.25%.
  • The move represents the first hike from a major European central bank.
  • EUR/NOK is down by approx. 0.5%

Contrary to most economists’ expectations, Norges Bank decided to raise interest rates by 25 bp, bringing the benchmark rate up to 4.25%. Norges Bank is thus the first major European central bank to decide on such move. Earlier, the ECB, BoE, and Riksbank had opted to hold rates steady. In response to the move, the Norwegian krone strengthened by approx. 0.5% against the benchmark euro, recouping a significant share of yesterday’s losses, which were largely the result of declining energy commodity prices.

Figure: EUR/NOK (2025-2026)

Source: xStation,

07/05/2026 The hike is primarily intended to anchor inflation expectations, especially in light of fairly persistent core inflation, which remained at 3% in March, and still elevated wage growth, which exceeds 4% YoY in many sectors. Officials’ statements lacked clear indications regarding future moves. The meeting was not accompanied by a new interest rate projection. The March one suggested a single rate hike before the end of the year—under current conditions, however, it seems likely that the bank will continue to tighten its monetary policy in the coming months. A rate hike at the June (18/06) meeting is almost fully priced in by the markets. Yet another hike in September is considered a base case scenario.

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Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Higher, but Still a Game of Expectations, Not a Trend

In today’s session, EUR/USD is strengthening around the 1.17 area, but the move is not driven by a single dominant factor. Instead, it reflects a combination of several parallel impulses, including unchanged policy rates from both the Fed and the ECB, improving sentiment linked to potential de-escalation of tensions around Iran, and stronger-than-expected German industrial data. It is important to stress that the current appreciation looks more like a repricing of expectations than a durable shift in underlying fundamentals.

Source: xStation5

What is shaping EUR/USD price action? Fed on hold, but the market is already pricing rate cuts

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, while signalling a gradual slowdown in economic momentum and increasing sensitivity in the labour market. At the same time, inflation in the US is still not fully under control, particularly in services and core inflation, where price pressures remain persistent. Despite this, markets are increasingly pricing in future rate cuts, not as a response to rapidly falling inflation, but rather as a reaction to a potential weakening in economic activity. This scenario reduces the attractiveness of the US dollar and gradually supports EUR/USD through expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential.

The ECB remains cautious, with no automatic path to hikes

The European Central Bank also left rates unchanged, maintaining a cautious and data-dependent communication stance. While some forecasts still allow for further tightening, the dominant view remains one of stabilisation and inflation-driven decisions rather than an aggressive hiking cycle. At the same time, improving real economy data, especially from Germany, is limiting earlier expectations of a deeper slowdown in the euro area, supporting the single currency through the activity channel rather than monetary policy expectations alone.

Geopolitics and hopes for an Iran agreement

Reports of potential de-escalation in tensions surrounding Iran are improving global risk sentiment. A decline in the geopolitical risk premium reduces demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe-haven currency, while benefiting risk-sensitive assets such as the euro. In addition, a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East lowers pressure on energy prices, which in the medium term could reduce inflationary pressures and strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance.

Germany surprises to the upside, lifting European sentiment

Stronger-than-expected German industrial data is an important element of today’s market picture. Against the backdrop of earlier concerns about stagnation in Europe, this release is helping stabilise perceptions of the euro area. As a result, the euro is increasingly seen not only through the lens of cyclical weakness, but also as a relatively stable alternative to the US dollar, particularly in an environment of shifting monetary policy expectations.

What else is influencing the market in the background

Beyond central bank decisions and macroeconomic data, the key driver remains the pace of change in market expectations regarding future Fed and ECB policy. The market is currently in a repricing phase rather than a full economic cycle shift. This makes EUR/USD particularly sensitive to incoming data and central bank communication that could either confirm or challenge the scenario of faster US easing combined with relatively stable policy in Europe. In such an environment, even moderately positive European data can support the euro in the short term, but the sustainability of the trend will ultimately depend on whether the Fed actually moves towards more decisive monetary easing.

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Trade of The Day – EUR/CHF

Facts:

  • The pair returned below the horizontal resistance area at 0.9220
  • EURCHF is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Short EURCHF at market price Target: 0.8995 Stop: 0.9272

Opinion:

Looking at EURCHF on the D1 interval, one can see a potential downward trend resumption. Following a break above the 1:1 geometry, the pair quickly returned below the upper limit of the aforementioned 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main trend remains downward. In addition the pair sits below the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going short USDCAD at market price with a target of 0.8995. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9272.

Source: xStation