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Currency Talk – USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, NZDUSD, and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDCAD

USDCAD prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of April. The chart shows a 1:1 pattern with a range of around 80 pips. Although the latest pattern has been slightly breached, the price has not exceeded the 127.2% level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, indicates that the downward trend remains intact. The current correction has stalled around 1.3630, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. Until this level is broken, the scenario of further declines remains in place.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since 6 April, NZDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. The lower boundary of the pattern at 0.5840 has recently been tested twice. This level was only slightly breached, but the price failed to return below the polarity of the previously negated downward pattern at 0.5828, which led to the emergence of another upward impulse. According to the Overbalance methodology, the uptrend remains in place, and the key support level remains at 0.5865, derived from the lower boundary of the green 1:1 pattern. The pattern remains valid as it has only been slightly breached but not negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

EURNZD

Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. The price attempted to break through the support level at 1.9969 on several occasions and eventually both broke through it and negated the 1:1 upward trend, confirming the bearish scenario. In the event of a correction, the key short-term resistance remains at 1.9930. If the downward movement continues, the lows from February and March at 1.9540 remain a potential target for selling.

EURNZD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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USDJPY: another intervention by Japanese authorities, yen gains 1.00%

USDJPY was hit again today by a strong wave of yen buying, with the pair falling from the upper 157.700 area to 155.030. The move is being interpreted as another intervention by Japanese authorities. The timing fits the recent pattern: low liquidity around Japanese holidays and the transition from the Asian to the European session, when official flows can have a greater market impact. At the peak of the move, the yen strengthened by nearly 2%, toward the 155 area — the strongest level since February 24, 2026 — after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative movements in the FX market.

This is another such intervention following last week’s large-scale operation. At that time, Bank of Japan money market data suggested that Tokyo may have spent around 5.48 trillion yen, or roughly 35 billion USD, to support the yen after USDJPY broke above the 160 level. The key signal for investors is that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is no longer limited to verbal warnings, but is actively attempting to cap USDJPY gains, particularly in the 158–160 zone. At the same time, rapid rebounds following earlier interventions show that these actions are buying time rather than changing the broader trend itself. Levels above 160 were also a critical point during the July 2024 intervention.

The fundamental backdrop remains difficult for the yen: the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan, Japan’s dependence on energy imports, and geopolitical pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to support the dollar and weaken the yen. The recent improvement in sentiment surrounding a potential US–Iran agreement has helped Tokyo through lower oil prices and a weaker USD, but if this pressure does not continue to ease — or if the Bank of Japan does not adopt a more hawkish stance — investors may continue to support the current weakening trend in JPY.

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Offshore Yuan Approaches 3-Year High

The offshore yuan traded around 6.81 per dollar on Wednesday, approaching its strongest level since March 2023, as demand for safe-haven assets such as the greenback weakened amid diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump pointed to what he described as “great progress” toward a “complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran,” while stating that the US would temporarily pause efforts to assist stranded vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, Trump indicated he would discuss the Iran conflict with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming summit on May 14–15, while seeking to temper tensions surrounding the issue. On the domestic front, a private survey showed that the composite PMI rose to 53.1 in April from 51.5 in March, as both manufacturing output (52.2 vs. 50.8) and services activity (52.6 vs. 52.1) expanded at a faster pace.

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Pound Sterling scales higher as USD weakens amid renewed US-Iran peace deal hopes

  • GBP/USD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a broadly weaker USD.
  • Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading hawkish Fed bets exert pressure on the buck.
  • BoE rate hike expectations act as a tailwind for the GBP and further support spot prices.

The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and moves away from the weekly low, around the 1.3515-1.3510 area, which was touched the previous day. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to the 1.3580 region during the Asian session.

US President Donald Trump said that ‘Project Freedom’ – aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see if the Iran peace deal can be finalised. This comes hours after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now and that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran. The comments lift hopes for a quick resolution of the US-Iran conflict and boost investors’ confidence, prompting some selling around the USD and providing a goodish lift to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a fresh leg down in Crude Oil prices, which helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers market expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook turns out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England’s (BoE) signal that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent. This further contributes to the GBP/USD pair follow-through move higher and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.

Moving ahead, the US ADP report on private-sector employment, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could provide some impetus later during the early North American session. The key focus, however, will be on the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets, which will drive the USD and the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.24%-0.26%-0.16%-0.14%-0.57%-0.60%-0.25%
EUR0.24%-0.03%0.09%0.10%-0.32%-0.39%-0.01%
GBP0.26%0.03%0.11%0.13%-0.29%-0.35%0.04%
JPY0.16%-0.09%-0.11%0.00%-0.43%-0.47%-0.06%
CAD0.14%-0.10%-0.13%-0.00%-0.42%-0.46%-0.08%
AUD0.57%0.32%0.29%0.43%0.42%-0.03%0.34%
NZD0.60%0.39%0.35%0.47%0.46%0.03%0.38%
CHF0.25%0.00%-0.04%0.06%0.08%-0.34%-0.38%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Canadian Dollar gains ground as easing safe-haven demand weighs on US Dollar

  • USD/CAD weakens as the US Dollar softens amid optimism over a potential Tehran deal.
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire holds despite Gulf clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The commodity-linked CAD may weaken as oil prices fall amid easing supply concerns on fading Middle East tensions.

USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair retreats as the US Dollar (USD) softens on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by rising optimism over a potential deal with Tehran.

Washington announced an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.

However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran was not fully settled, as both sides continued exchanging fire in the Gulf amid tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Losses in the USD/CAD pair may be capped, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face pressure from weaker oil prices. West Texas Intermediate continues to decline, trading near $97.90 per troy ounce at the time of writing.

Oil prices are falling as supply concerns ease alongside fading Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump stated that the US would temporarily pause efforts to help stranded vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz, allowing time to evaluate prospects for a deal with Iran to end the conflict.

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Japanese Yen gains ground on Trump’s Hormuz pause, intervention caution

  • USD/JPY softens to near 157.65 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
  • Trump said he is pausing the operation that helps ships leave the Strait of Hormuz. 
  • Traders remain cautious after suspected intervention. 

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 157.65 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after US President Donald Trump announces a pause on ‘Project Freedom’ in the Strait of Hormuz. The US April ADP Employment Change report will be released later on Wednesday. 

Trump said on Tuesday that Iran and the US have mutually agreed that while the US blockade “will remain in full force and effect,” Project Freedom will be paused. Trump further stated that this was to see if an agreement between the two countries can be finalized and signed. US President noted the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries and follows what he called “tremendous military success” during a US campaign against Iran.

Markets remain on high alert following suspected interventions by Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action against speculative foreign-exchange movements. “It’s probably going to take another round of significant intervention to push the dollar more significantly lower,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.

The US employment data for April will be in the spotlight on Friday. This report could influence interest rate expectations and the pair’s next move. Economists expect the US economy to have added 60,000 jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.3 during the same period. Any signs of improvement in the US labor market could lift the Greenback against the JPY in the near term. 

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to June 2022 high, closer to mid-0.7200s on weaker USD

  • AUD/USD attracts strong follow-through buyers amid a combination of supporting factors.
  • US-Iran peace deal hopes and receding hawkish Fed expectations weigh heavily on the USD.
  • The RBA’s hawkish outlook benefits the Aussie and contributes to the positive momentum.

The AUD/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s bounce from the 0.7135 region, or the weekly low, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh high since June 2022, closer to mid-0.7200s, during the Asian session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

The incoming headlines fuel optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and boost investors’ confidence, undermining the safe-haven buck and benefiting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Furthermore, sliding Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This exerts additional pressure on the USD, which, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook, contributes to the bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bullish near-term bias following the recent resilience below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said support is pegged at 0.7145, which now underpins the broader upturn from recent lows. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests strong but maturing upside momentum, while the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that buyers still retain control.

This, in turn, suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 100-period EMA on H4, at 0.7145, as the broader structure remains constructive above this zone. A sustained break beneath this moving average would weaken the current bullish tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase on the four-hour timeframe.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.20%-0.18%-0.06%-0.14%-0.69%-0.75%-0.20%
EUR0.20%0.02%0.15%0.07%-0.48%-0.57%0.00%
GBP0.18%-0.02%0.13%0.06%-0.50%-0.57%0.00%
JPY0.06%-0.15%-0.13%-0.09%-0.64%-0.72%-0.12%
CAD0.14%-0.07%-0.06%0.09%-0.55%-0.62%-0.04%
AUD0.69%0.48%0.50%0.64%0.55%-0.07%0.50%
NZD0.75%0.57%0.57%0.72%0.62%0.07%0.57%
CHF0.20%-0.00%-0.00%0.12%0.04%-0.50%-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts: EURGBP bounced off the 1:1 structure at 0.8647 The pair is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average foram H1 interval Recommendation: Trade: Short position on EURGBP at market price Target: 0.8620, 0.8611 Stop Loss: 0.8655

Opinion: EURGBP has been trading in a downward trend recently. Taking a look at the H1 internal, we can see that the pair bounced off the key resistance, signaling a potential bearish trend resumption. The resistance at 0.8647 is marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure. In addition the price sits below the 100- period moving average. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the 0.8647 resistance, one should expect the price to continue to fall. Taking this into account, we recommend going short EURGBP at market price with two targets: 0.8620 and 0.8611. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 0.8655. Source: xStation5