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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA

  • EUR/USD may test the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating a lack of strong direction.
  • The lower ascending channel boundary is acting as immediate support, near the 50-day EMA at 1.1697.

EUR/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is positioned on the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

The EUR/USD pair is holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving average (EMA) but still capped by the nine-day EMA, which keeps the near-term tone broadly neutral with a slight bullish tilt. The price hovering between these averages suggests consolidation after recent gains, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at balanced momentum rather than a strongly directional move.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730, followed by the 12-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.2040. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair is positioned on the lower ascending channel boundary, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.1697. Further declines will put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.04%-0.05%-0.03%-0.01%0.02%0.06%-0.06%
EUR0.04%-0.03%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.06%-0.02%
GBP0.05%0.03%0.02%0.06%0.06%0.09%0.03%
JPY0.03%0.00%-0.02%-0.01%0.03%0.06%-0.05%
CAD0.01%-0.03%-0.06%0.00%0.04%0.06%0.00%
AUD-0.02%0.00%-0.06%-0.03%-0.04%0.05%-0.00%
NZD-0.06%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.06%-0.05%-0.07%
CHF0.06%0.02%-0.03%0.05%-0.00%0.00%0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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British Pound hovers ahead of UK GDP data, awaits Trump-Xi meeting updates

  • GBP/USD steadies as traders await preliminary Q1 UK Gross Domestic Product data due on Thursday.
  • Traders also await further news on the ongoing Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
  • US wholesale inflation reached a post-2022 peak in April, as the Producer Price Index surged to a 6.0% annual rate.

GBP/USD holds ground following three days of losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders await the preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026, along with Industrial and Manufacturing Production data due later in the day.

The GBP/USD pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on market caution as traders await further updates amid the ongoing meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Traders will also shift their focus to the US Retail Sales report for April due later in the day.

As the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize their relationship, they are reportedly considering a framework to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods, excluding those tied to national security.

However, geopolitical tensions remain a major factor. The US-China summit has taken place against the backdrop of the war in Iran. Washington has recently increased pressure on Tehran by imposing new sanctions on entities involved in selling Iranian oil to China and threatening banks that facilitate those transactions.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that wholesale inflation hit its highest level since late 2022. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year in April, up from 4.3% in March and well above the 4.9% expected by the market. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 1.4%, doubling the previous month’s 0.7% and far exceeding the anticipated 0.5% increase.

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Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.7250, Trump–Xi talks in focus

  • AUD/USD softens to around 0.7250 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • US producer prices surprise with the largest rise in four years. 
  • Trump will hold a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in China.

The AUD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.7250 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will closely monitor the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing, and the release of the US April Retail Sales data later on Thursday. 

US producer prices posted their biggest increase in four years in April, underpinning the Greenback. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.0% YoY in April, compared to the 4.3% prior. On a monthly basis, the PPI inflation rose to 1.4% in April from 0.7% in March and much higher than the estimate of 0.5%.

Traders will take more cues from the US Retail Sales report on Thursday. The market expects the Retail Sales to show an increase of 0.5% MoM in April, compared to 1.7% in March. Any signs of hotter inflation reports could boost the USD and act as a headwind for the pair. 

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump arrived in Beijing for a state visit to China, where he will meet with Xi Jinping to discuss topics including trade and the Iran war. This is the first state visit to China by a US leader in nine years. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China talks could lift the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia. 

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Japanese Yen holds steady ahead of Trump–Xi summit, US Retail Sales data

  • USD/JPY flat lines around 157.85 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
  • US inflation came in hotter than expected, with the PPI rising by 6.0% YoY in April. 
  • Trump will hold a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in China. 

The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 157.85 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The major pair steadies as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing and the release of the US April Retail Sales data later on Thursday. 

The latest US inflation data came in hotter than expected, fueling expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain elevated long-term interest rates. This, in turn, could underpin the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.0% YoY in April, following the 4.3% seen in March, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, the PPI inflation rose to 1.4% in April from 0.7% in March and much higher than the estimate of 0.5%.

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump arrived in Beijing for a state visit to China, where he will meet with Xi Jinping to discuss topics including trade and the Iran war. This is the first state visit to China by a US leader in nine years. 

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid fears of further currency intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week that “regarding recent currency moves, we confirmed that Japan and the US have been coordinating very well and have maintained close communication.” 

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Canadian Dollar moves little as traders adopt caution ahead of US-China summit

  • USD/CAD remains steady as traders await the high-stakes Trump-Xi summit.
  • Trump and Xi may lower tariffs on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods, excluding items vital to national security.
  • The commodity-linked CAD may weaken as falling oil prices reduce demand for Canada’s primary export.

USD/CAD remains calm after six days of gains, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair stays silent as the US Dollar (USD) moves little as market caution prevails ahead of a pivotal summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Traders will also shift their focus to the US Retail Sales report for April due later in the day.

As the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize their relationship, they are reportedly considering a framework to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods, excluding those tied to national security. However, geopolitical tensions remain a major factor. The summit is taking place against the backdrop of the war in Iran. Washington has recently increased pressure on Tehran by imposing new sanctions on entities involved in selling Iranian oil to China and threatening banks that facilitate those transactions.

On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that wholesale inflation hit its highest level since late 2022. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 4.3% in March and well above the 4.9% expected by the market. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 1.4%, doubling the previous month’s 0.7% and far exceeding the anticipated 0.5% increase.

The USD/CAD pair may regain its ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may lose ground amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

However, Oil supply concerns also loom over the market as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that crude and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by nearly 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February.

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Offshore Yuan Holds Firm on Trump-Xi Summit

The offshore yuan traded around 6.78 per dollar, holding near its strongest level since February 2023 as investors closely watched a high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at stabilizing relations between the world’s two largest economies. Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday and is set to meet Xi at the Great Hall of the People for talks covering a range of contentious issues. Trump is expected to urge Beijing to help facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through its ties with Tehran, though he has downplayed the Iran conflict as a central topic, emphasizing trade and market access instead. Moreover, Trump has signaled that he will urge China to roll back barriers facing American companies and further “open up” its economy. The summit, delayed for weeks amid tensions tied to the Iran conflict, is being closely watched by markets for signs of a diplomatic breakthrough that could shape US-China relations and global trade.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Holds modest upside while staying anchored above 100-day EMA support

  • GBP/USD trades with mild gains near 1.3550 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the pair remains intact above the key 100-day EMA. 
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.3630; the initial support level is located at 1.3540. 

The GBP/USD pair trades on a positive note around 1.3550 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited, as UK political turmoil and ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on the British Pound (GBP) against the Greenback. 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing rising pressure to set a date for his departure after elections across much of the country resulted in massive losses for his ruling Labour Party. While Starmer stated he will not resign, the resulting political “noise” and rising UK gilt yields have created localized pressure on the GBP. 

Traders will closely watch the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. Markets expect the US PPI inflation to rise to 4.9% YoY in April from 4.0% in March. The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show a rise of 4.3% YoY in April versus 3.8% prior. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could boost the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. 

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a mild bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 100-day SMA, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers close to the mid-50s, hinting at steady rather than overstretched upside momentum while price grinds higher within the Bollinger envelope.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band near 1.3630, where recent rallies could stall if buyers fail to extend the breakout. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.3540, followed by the 100-day SMA at roughly 1.3483; a deeper pullback would then look to the lower Bollinger band near 1.3458 as a stronger floor.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Consolidates below mid-1.1700s as Iran risks, Fed bets support USD

  • EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction as a combination of factors supports the USD.
  • Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions underpin the buck, capping the upside for the pair.
  • The technical setup warrants some caution for bearish traders and positioning for deeper losses.

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the previous day’s heavy losses and oscillating in a narrow band, below mid-1.1700s, during the Asian session on Wednesday. Traders now seem hesitant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

In the meantime, hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday lifted market bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Apart from this, the diminishing odds for a US-Iran peace deal, amid disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent move up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. Moreover, spot prices hold above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a modestly constructive near-term tone despite softening momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly below zero with the histogram turning negative. This hints that upside traction is losing strength even as the EUR/USD pair stays supported by its underlying trend structure.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the ascending channel support near the 1.1715 region and the 200-period SMA at 1.1692 before positioning for further losses. Acceptance below the latter would weaken the EUR/USD pair’s current constructive bias and expose deeper retracements within the broader range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper boundary of the parallel channel around 1.1830. A convincing breakout through the said barrier would open the way for a more decisive bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.16%0.69%0.11%-0.15%-0.03%0.35%
EUR-0.12%0.03%0.65%-0.03%-0.29%-0.20%0.21%
GBP-0.16%-0.03%0.11%-0.05%-0.34%-0.21%0.17%
JPY-0.69%-0.65%-0.11%-0.64%-0.86%-0.73%-0.30%
CAD-0.11%0.03%0.05%0.64%-0.17%-0.09%0.22%
AUD0.15%0.29%0.34%0.86%0.17%0.12%0.51%
NZD0.03%0.20%0.21%0.73%0.09%-0.12%0.36%
CHF-0.35%-0.21%-0.17%0.30%-0.22%-0.51%-0.36%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).