Japan stands ready to act if needed to address excessive exchange-rate volatility, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday. He added that the government is prepared to respond to market moves at any time, stating, “We are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time.” He added that officials will continue to closely monitor foreign exchange developments. Kihara noted that while a weaker yen benefits manufacturers by boosting export competitiveness and corporate profits, it also raises import costs, increasing the burden on businesses and households through higher prices. “We need to scrutinise such effects comprehensively,” he said, highlighting the government’s balanced assessment of the currency’s impact on the economy.
Chart of the Day – A New Era at the Fed and the Hawkish Shadow of the ECB. EUR/USD at a Turning Point
EURUSD starts today’s session in a noticeably tense yet somewhat uneven atmosphere, where the market lacks a single dominant narrative. On one side, investors are already looking ahead to the evening and the Federal Reserve’s decision, which could set the tone for the US dollar over the coming weeks. On the other side, Europe refuses to fade into the background, as fresh inflation data once again highlights that the ECB story and its future policy response to price pressures remain unresolved.
In practice, EURUSD is trading in an environment where no clear narrative has taken control. Market participants are simultaneously trying to price in the Fed, the ECB, and the widening divergence between them, which naturally increases volatility and means that any new impulse can quickly shift the balance of forces. In such a setup, the currency pair becomes particularly sensitive to changes in expectations, especially on a day filled with major macroeconomic events.
Source: xStation5
What is driving EURUSD today? Kevin Warsh’s debut and the Fed credibility test
Today’s Federal Reserve meeting carries special significance as it is the first under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. Markets are almost fully aligned in expecting interest rates to remain unchanged in the 3.50–3.75% range, but the decision itself is not the key focus. Far more important will be the tone of communication and how the new Fed Chair outlines the future path of monetary policy. Warsh takes control at a time when US inflation remains sticky and the economy continues to show relative resilience, limiting room for an early policy easing cycle. This makes today’s message potentially a directional signal for the entire Fed cycle. Even a subtle shift toward a more hawkish stance could strengthen the US dollar and add downward pressure on EURUSD.
Europe: inflation in line with forecasts, but pressure persists
On the European side, today brought the final release of May HICP inflation. The reading of 3.2% year on year came in exactly in line with consensus expectations, which helps stabilize short-term market positioning. However, it does not change the broader picture, where inflation remains elevated compared to last year. This keeps price pressures firmly on the radar of the European Central Bank. Particular attention continues to be drawn to persistent core inflation and the services component, both of which still show no clear disinflationary trend.
ECB and rising risks of further tightening
The lack of any positive surprise in inflation data leaves the ECB in a challenging position. After its recent rate hike, markets are once again reassessing whether the tightening cycle is truly over. If price pressures in services remain elevated and core inflation fails to meaningfully ease, the European Central Bank may be forced into another move later this year. Such a scenario limits the downside potential for the euro and acts as an important counterbalance to US dollar strength.
Market picture: tension between two central banks
EURUSD remains a market driven by two opposing narratives. On one side, investors are focused on the Fed and its impact on US dollar valuation. On the other, persistent inflation in Europe continues to support cautious expectations regarding the ECB. In this environment, markets become highly sensitive to central bank communication, while the technical structure of price action reinforces the sense of a fragile equilibrium, vulnerable to sharp shifts.
Key takeaways
- Today’s EURUSD session is shaped by two opposing forces that broadly offset each other
- The Fed remains the primary driver for the US dollar and could set the tone for the coming period
- Europe continues to face persistent inflation with no clear signs of meaningful easing
- The market remains in a wait-and-see mode with no dominant narrative
- The key resolution will likely come only after the evening Fed decision and press conference
United Kingdom CPI inflation holds steady in April: What 2.8% means for British Pound
The United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.8% over the year in May, compared to a rise of 2.8% in April, the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Wednesday. The UK inflation reading was well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% inflation target.
The core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) rose 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) in the same period, compared to April’s 2.5% print and came in softer than the forecast of 2.7%.
Meanwhile, the monthly UK CPI arrived at 0.2% in May versus a rise of 0.7% reported in April, below the market consensus of 0.4%.
The British Pound (GBP) attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the UK inflation report. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading 0.05% lower on the day to trade at 1.3420.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.19% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.26% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.19% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.19% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
What do United Kingdom CPI inflation data mean for the British Pound?
The UK CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation, the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. This figure is one of the most important economic indicators for the GBP because it measures inflation and plays a key role in the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decisions.
Hotter-than-expected CPI Inflation suggests stronger price pressures in the economy. Traders may expect the BoE to keep interest rates higher-for-longer or consider additional rate hikes.
On the other hand, softer-than-expected outcomes may indicate easing price pressures in the UK economy. Markets could increase their bets on future BoE rate cuts.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains a neutral outlook in the near-term
In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds just above the Bollinger middle band, while still capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). This configuration suggests a neutral near-term bias, with price consolidating inside the Bollinger envelope rather than trending. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 50 hints at balanced momentum, leaving the pair dependent on a break outside this nearby band-and-MA corridor to define the next directional move.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around 1.3460, with the Bollinger upper band near 1.3498 forming a secondary barrier if buyers extend the recovery. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 1.3420, ahead of a deeper cushion at the Bollinger lower band close to 1.3345, where a break would expose a broader corrective phase.
Offshore Yuan Holds Near a Multi-Year High
The offshore yuan traded around 6.75 per dollar on Wednesday, remaining close to its strongest level since February 2023 after the People’s Bank of China unveils fresh measures designed to deepen global usage of the Chinese currency. The central bank said it will expand access to yuan liquidity through its Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility, enabling foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and other official institutions to borrow yuan against holdings of Chinese government bonds and other eligible securities. The announcement marks another step in Beijing’s long-running campaign to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on the US dollar in global finance. Reflecting this ambition, China’s latest five-year plan pledged to advance yuan internationalization, while President Xi Jinping has emphasized the objective of building a strong and influential global currency.
Eur sticks to positive bias above 1.1600 as bulls await Fed rate decision
- EUR/USD attracts some buyers for the third straight day as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
- The ECB’s hawkish outlook benefits the shared currency and further lends support to the currency pair.
- Traders, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision.
The EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day and holds steady above the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the 1.1500 psychological mark, or over a two-month low, touched last week.
The latest optimism over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran keep the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on the defensive, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish signal following an interest rate hike for the first time in three years. In fact, the ECB raised its 2026 inflation projections to 3% amid prolonged energy shocks and broadening price pressures across the eurozone.
Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a roughly 40 basis points in additional hikes for 2026 by the ECB despite the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US and Iran agreed to a framework peace deal intended to end the war that began earlier in 2026. The initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and sets the stage for technical negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. However, other details about the agreement remain scarce.
This, along with expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might still hike interest rates by 25 bps in December, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the EUR/USD pair. Hence, market focus will remain glued to the crucial Fed rate decision, the latest economic projections, and the so-called dot plot. Adding to this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh’s comments during the post-meeting presser will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path.
Indian Rupee remains flat as risk-on mood weighs on US Dollar
- The Indian Rupee holds ground as oil prices continue to ease.
- Indian shares opened higher but edged lower as caution grew ahead of the US Fed policy decision.
- Traders expect a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during his first policy meeting on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) holds ground after two days of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, the upside potential for the USD/INR pair could be capped in the near term as downward pressure on the Indian Rupee eases, supported by declining global oil prices.
Following recent policy interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists have notably upgraded their forecasts for the nation’s balance of payments. Most analysts now anticipate a small surplus, marking a sharp reversal from previous projections of a substantial deficit.
However, the true extent of any Rupee rally will ultimately hinge on the central bank’s comfort level. Experts suggest the RBI may strategically leverage the currency’s strength to pare down its massive foreign exchange forward book, which saw short-dollar positions balloon to a record $104 billion in March during efforts to defend the INR.
Indian equity indexes hold gains on Wednesday despite the prevailing market caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision. The US central bank is widely expected to maintain its cautious “wait-and-see” stance, keeping benchmark interest rates steady within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
Nevertheless, market participants remain highly attentive, as traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to adopt a more hawkish tone during his first policy meeting later in the day. This cautious domestic sentiment follows a mixed session on Tuesday, where institutional data from the NSE revealed that foreign institutional investors sold shares worth INR 749.18 crore, while domestic institutional investors made modest purchases worth INR 6 lakhs.
Broader market sentiment also faces headwinds from lingering global uncertainties and geopolitical frictions. Industry experts express widespread skepticism regarding a swift economic rebound, warning that shipping and energy exports could take several weeks to fully recover from recent disruptions. Complicating the global outlook further, the Iran-backed group Hezbollah stated in Lebanon that Iran would likely refuse a final nuclear agreement unless Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory, adding a layer of geopolitical risk that continues to keep investors on edge.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends losses for the fifth successive day, trading around $75.20 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices declined as anticipation grew over a looming United States (US)-Iran peace deal that could significantly boost global supply.
The US and Iran are scheduled to sign an interim agreement in Switzerland this Friday, which would grant Tehran broad economic incentives and allow the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports. Furthermore, international tankers are expected to resume safe transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz once the pact officially takes effect.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades near 94.50 above descending triangle bottom
USD/INR flattens after two days of losses, trading around 94.40 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that spot price sits just slightly above the lower boundary of the descending triangle, indicating the “drumroll” moment of the pattern.
The flat lower boundary represents a major demand zone where buyers have historically stepped in to stop the bleeding. When the spot price hovers just above it, the market is testing whether those buyers still have the cash and the will to defend that floor.
The USD/INR pair maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential moving averages (EMAs). The clustering of these EMAs above the spot hints at a capped market, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests weak momentum, reinforcing the risk of further downside as long as price remains suppressed beneath these moving averages.
The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 94.30, while the initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 94.73, followed by the nine-day EMA at 94.90.
Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision
- USD/JPY weakens to around 160.25 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Fed is set to leave its interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting.
- BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% but gave no strong signal on the timing of the next move.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday.
The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on the interest rates at its June policy meeting. Traders will closely watch the statement, economic projections, and press conference for more hints about the US interest rate path later this year.
“The Fed is…likely to signal a neutral bias for monetary policy going forward,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% as expected. This marks the highest level since 1995. The decision came at a time when Japan had been struggling with a weak JPY and inflation that had started to creep up, partly due to the Iran war.
“While the press conference…contained some optimistic signals regarding the outlook for the Japanese economy, it failed to move the needle much regarding market expectations around the timing of the next BOJ policy move,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.
Traders are on alert for any potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency. MUFG analysts said the Japanese Yen’s failure to strengthen after the hike keeps pressure on Japanese officials to intervene again.
US Dollar Index weakens to near 99.50 on US‑Iran peace deal optimism ahead of Fed rate decision
- US Dollar Index softens to around 99.50 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- A US-Iran peace deal will be signed at Switzerland’s mountainside Burgenstock resort on Friday.
- Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY extends the decline amid optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Wednesday.
US Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump may decide to release a preliminary deal to end the war with Iran before Friday, after the US president said the agreement had already been signed. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be open by Friday and that the full text of the peace deal will be released in a “formal setting.”
The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed that a US-Iran deal aimed at ending the Middle East war will be signed at Switzerland’s mountainside Burgenstock resort on Friday. Hopes of a peace agreement between the US and Iran could undermine a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against its rivals.
The Fed is due to announce its next policy decision on Wednesday. Economists expect the US central bank to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% as it waits to see how the war’s energy-price shock ripples through the economy.
The focus will be on new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the handling of the press conference that follows the interest rate decision. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials could lift the DXY in the near term.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 64% chance of a US central bank interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
