GBP moves little as uncertainty prevails over US-Iran peace talks

March 26, 2026
  • GBP/USD steadies as the US Dollar holds firm amid ongoing uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war.
  • Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington.
  • UOB economist highlighted a hawkish BoE shift, holding the Bank Rate at 3.75% after a 9–0 vote.

GBP/USD remains flat after two days of losses, hovering around 1.3360 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The pair remains steady as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with traders closely tracking developments in the Middle East amid persistent uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war.

The White House stated that talks are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan to resolve the conflict. Senior Iranian officials are reviewing the US proposal but have signaled no willingness to engage in talks with Washington. However, Tehran indicated it would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead putting forward a five-point plan that includes sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) may find support from easing oil prices amid hopes of de-escalating Middle East tensions. UK inflation data for February showed headline CPI steady at 3%, in line with expectations, while core CPI edged higher to 3.2%, surpassing the 3.1% forecast. However, these pre-conflict figures had a limited impact on market sentiment.

UOB economist Lee Sue Ann pointed to a hawkish shift by the Bank of England (BoE), with the Bank Rate held at 3.75% following a unanimous 9–0 vote. The report removes earlier expectations for three rate cuts in 2026, now projecting the GBP Repo Rate to remain at 3.75% through the fourth quarter of 2026 as inflation risks persist.

Japanese Yen hangs near YTD low vs. USD amid Middle East tensions, intervention fears

March 26, 2026
  • USD/JPY bulls pause for a breather amid fears of JPY intervention, though the downside appears limited.
  • War-driven economic concerns continue to undermine the JPY and lend support to the currency pair.
  • Inflation fears and hawkish Fed bets underpin the USD, further acting as a tailwind for the spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair consolidates around mid-159.00s during the Asian session on Thursday and remains within striking distance of its highest level since July 2024, touched earlier this month.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns that the war-driven surge in energy prices would weigh on Japan’s trade balance and economic outlook. Furthermore, a sustained increase in Oil prices would drive up inflation and create a classic stagflationary environment, complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalization efforts. This, along with the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish sentiment, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Iran’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that Tehran is reviewing a US proposal to end the war but has no intention of holding talks to wind down the widening Middle East conflict. Furthermore, the deployment of additional US troops in the region points to the risk of a further escalation of the conflict and overshadows US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire rhetoric. Apart from this, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations benefit the USD and support the USD/JPY pair.

In fact, traders have nearly priced out the possibility of any further rate cuts by the Fed and are rapidly increasing bets for a hike by the end of this year. The hawkish outlook, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, continues to underpin the USD’s global reserve currency status and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. However, intervention fears hold back the JPY bears from placing fresh bets and cap the upside for spot prices.

USD/CAD extends rally to near 1.3830 amid uncertainty over Middle East conflicts

March 26, 2026
  • USD/CAD rallies further to near 1.3830 as investors remain on edge amid Middle East conflicts.
  • The Fed is unlikely to deliver any dovish monetary policy adjustment this year.
  • Higher oil prices are expected to keep the Canadian Dollar broadly on the front foot.

The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the fourth trading day on Thursday and jumps to near 1.3830 during the Asian trading session, the highest level seen in two months.

The Loonie pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) rises amid uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, which involves the United States (US), Israel, and Iran. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Wednesday’s gains around 99.65.

The safe-haven demand of the US Dollar remains firm as Iran continues to push back hopes of de-escalation in Middle East conflicts, stating that it is not directly involved in negotiations with the US.

Regarding the month-long ceasefire proposal and 15-point settlement plan, Iran said that the Pakistan-delivered proposal was excessive and demanded sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official said talks could be held in Pakistan or Turkey if they proceed, Reuters reports.

On the domestic front, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year, as surging energy prices have de-anchored inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperforms its major currency peers, except antipodeans, as investors remain on edge amid the Middle East war. However, the broader outlook of the Loonie remains firm amid higher oil prices.

Given that Canada is a net oil exporter, higher oil prices due to an energy supply shock is a favorable situation for the Canadian Dollar.

NZD/USD trades with caution near 0.5800 as Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal

March 26, 2026
  • NZD/USD remains on the edge around 0.5800 as Iran wants the US to fulfil its demands before ceasefire talks.
  • Major demands from Iran include the guarantee of a total end to the war, and the closure of US bases in the Middle East.
  • RBNZ’s Breman said that monetary policy adjustments could be done on either side.

The NZD/USD pair trades cautiously near 0.5800 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Kiwi is under pressure as Iran’s rejection to ceasefire proposal and 15-point settlement plan by United States (US) President Donald Trump has raised concerns over hopes of de-escalation in Middle East conflicts.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that Tehran doesn’t see the truce and talks as viable in current conditions. Also, Iran demands completion of its key demand before involving in direct talks with Washington, Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, which includes the closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for attacks, lifting all sanctions, allowing Iran to retain its missile program without restrictions, and the recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the war in the Middle East has improved the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar (USD). As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to Wednesday’s gains around 99.65.

In addition to heightened geopolitical tensions, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not commit any dovish monetary policy adjustment this year are also keeping the US Dollar on the front foot.

In New Zealand (NZ), the central bank has warned of high inflation and has kept the likelihood of monetary policy adjustment on either side. “We don’t want to react too soon to inflationary pressures that we can do little about, but we don’t want to wait too long in case we see those inflationary pressures becoming more-long lasting, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said earlier this week, Reuters reports, and added, “I will not rule out either rate hikes or rate cuts because of the uncertainty in the global environment.”

AUD moves little following RBA’s Kent cautious remarks

March 26, 2026
  • AUD/USD remains silent after RBA’s Christopher Kent warned of inflation risks from rising energy prices.
  • The Australian Dollar struggled after softer domestic inflation data on Wednesday.
  • The US Dollar holds firm as markets track Middle East developments, with uncertainty over efforts to resolve the Iran conflict.

AUD/USD steadies after two days of losses, trading around 0.6950 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair trades flat as the Australian Dollar (AUD) stays steady. This follows Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent’s warning that policymakers may need to contain inflation amid rising energy prices. Kent also noted the board will target low, stable inflation and full employment. This may lift short-run neutral rates and require tighter policy.

However, the Australian Dollar weakened after softer domestic inflation data on Wednesday. Australia’s annual CPI slowed to 3.7% in February from 3.8% in January. The trimmed mean CPI came in at 3.3%, below the 3.4% forecast and in line with January’s revised figure.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm. Markets are watching Middle East developments closely, with uncertainty surrounding efforts to end the Iran conflict.

The White House said talks are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan. Senior Iranian officials are reviewing the proposal but show little willingness to engage with Washington. Tehran is also expected to reject a US ceasefire offer, instead proposing a five-point plan that includes sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz.

USD/JPY climbs as US Dollar strength outweighs hawkish BoJ, geopolitical risks

March 25, 2026
  • USD/JPY edges higher, supported by the resilience of the US Dollar amid geopolitical tensions.
  • The Japanese Yen remains under pressure despite a hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan.
  • Markets stay focused on Middle East tensions and their impact on energy prices and safe-haven flows.

USD/JPY trades around 159.00 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.18% on the day. The pair continues to draw support from sustained demand for the US Dollar (USD) in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to attract buyers despite the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes, which indicate that policymakers see room for further rate hikes if the economic outlook evolves as expected. This relatively hawkish stance is offset by concerns over the impact of rising energy prices on Japan’s economy, which is heavily reliant on imports. The surge in Oil prices, driven by the Middle East war, is worsening Japan’s terms of trade and adding further pressure on the currency.

At the same time, the US Dollar remains firm, supported by its safe-haven status. Investors remain cautious as they monitor developments in discussions between Washington and Tehran, with ceasefire proposals circulating but no confirmed breakthrough. Recent military developments in the region continue to fuel risk aversion and reinforce flows into the Greenback.

On the monetary policy front, comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Michael Barr, suggest that interest rates may need to remain steady for some time due to inflation still running above target. This outlook helps maintain yield differentials in favor of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

Analysts at BNY also highlight that Japanese activity data show signs of improvement, with a rebound in industrial production and exports. However, these positive signals have not been sufficient to support the JPY, as markets remain focused on yield spreads and global risk dynamics.

Meanwhile, Societe Generale economists note that the pair is testing the upper bound of its multi-year range, with the risk of a bullish breakout if levels near 160 are cleared. They point to the potential for a move toward the highs seen in 2024, as the US Dollar continues to hold the upper hand.

Finally, OCBC Bank emphasizes the key role of energy prices in the JPY’s current weakness, while warning that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market if USD/JPY moves sustainably above the 160 threshold. This could limit further upside in the short term, without necessarily altering the broader bullish trend.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.21%0.17%0.19%0.14%0.50%0.32%0.34%
EUR-0.21%-0.04%0.02%-0.08%0.29%0.10%0.12%
GBP-0.17%0.04%0.04%-0.02%0.33%0.14%0.17%
JPY-0.19%-0.02%-0.04%-0.06%0.30%0.10%0.13%
CAD-0.14%0.08%0.02%0.06%0.37%0.19%0.20%
AUD-0.50%-0.29%-0.33%-0.30%-0.37%-0.18%-0.17%
NZD-0.32%-0.10%-0.14%-0.10%-0.19%0.18%0.01%
CHF-0.34%-0.12%-0.17%-0.13%-0.20%0.17%-0.01%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD under pressure as Iran pushes back against US ceasefire proposal

March 25, 2026
  • EUR/USD remains on the defensive as the US Dollar stays firm amid mixed US-Iran ceasefire signals.
  • Iran pushes back against US peace proposals, limiting ceasefire hopes
  • Oil-driven inflation concerns boost ECB rate hike bets while the Fed is seen holding rates.

The Euro (EUR) trades under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as the Greenback remains well supported amid conflicting headlines surrounding US-Iran ceasefire efforts. While Washington is pushing for a diplomatic breakthrough, uncertainty over Tehran’s response continues to underpin demand for the safe-haven Greenback.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1585, down about 0.20% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is 99.40 after marking an intraday low of 99.07.

Iran signaled little willingness to align with US-led proposals, with state-linked media Press TV reporting that Tehran will end the conflict strictly on its own terms. A senior political-security official said Iran “will not allow Trump to dictate the timing of the war’s end,” adding that any resolution would only come when Iran’s conditions are met.

Iran has set clear conditions for any deal. These include a full stop to attacks and assassinations, guarantees the war will not restart, payment for war damages, an end to fighting across all regional fronts, and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

This comes after the United States reportedly proposed a 15-point plan, including a one-month ceasefire to kick-start negotiations. The proposal is said to involve curbs on Iran’s nuclear program and guarantees to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in exchange for potential sanctions relief.

The mixed signals from both sides suggest that a meaningful breakthrough remains unlikely in the near term, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict. This is keeping Oil-driven inflation concerns alive and complicating the policy outlook for major central banks.

Traders are now fully pricing in two rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB), while expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year have largely been priced out, with markets increasingly anticipating that the Fed will hold rates through 2026.

However, a Reuters poll published on Wednesday showed that 60 economists showed that 38 expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2.00% this year, although 21 now see at least one rate hike in 2026.

Earlier in the day, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “the ECB won’t act before it has sufficient information,” adding that “if the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted.” She also noted, “We must identify when higher energy costs risk spilling over into broad-based inflation.”

Australian Dollar underperforms as Iran pushes back hopes of peace talks

March 24, 2026
  • The Australian Dollar underperforms across the board as risk-aversion revives after Iran dismisses peace talks with the US.
  • US President Trump announced on Monday that military attacks on Iran’s power plants have been postponed.
  • Weak Australian PMI data has also weighed on the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, trading 0.6% down to near 0.6760 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean has come under pressure as remarks from Iran that they are not involved in any peace talks with the United States (US), which were contrary to comments from President Donald Trump, have revived the risk-aversion mood.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.21%0.21%0.14%0.18%0.53%0.35%0.26%
EUR-0.21%-0.02%-0.07%-0.03%0.33%0.14%0.05%
GBP-0.21%0.02%-0.04%-0.02%0.34%0.16%0.07%
JPY-0.14%0.07%0.04%0.05%0.39%0.21%0.12%
CAD-0.18%0.03%0.02%-0.05%0.34%0.16%0.08%
AUD-0.53%-0.33%-0.34%-0.39%-0.34%-0.17%-0.29%
NZD-0.35%-0.14%-0.16%-0.21%-0.16%0.17%-0.09%
CHF-0.26%-0.05%-0.07%-0.12%-0.08%0.29%0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

On Monday, US President Trump announced that he has instructed the Department of War to pause military attacks on Iran’s power plants for five days, as we are having “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.

The revival of risk-off sentiment has offered support to the US Dollar, which declined significantly after US President Trump’s remarks. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% higher to near 99.40.

In addition to deteriorating market sentiment, weak preliminary Australian S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March has also weighed on the Australian Dollar. Earlier in the day, the data showed that the overall business activity swung to contraction due to a sharp decline in the services sector output.

The Composite PMI arrived at 47.0 against 52.4 in February. A figure below 50.0 is considered a contraction in the business activity.

Meanwhile, investors await the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Wednesday. However, the impact of the Feb inflation data is expected to be limited on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook, as it would lack the impact of the recent surge in energy prices due to the Iran conflict.