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Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

BoJ Report: Impact of weak Japanese Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock

A report released by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday revealed that the impact of weak Japanese Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock. The weakening of the JPY pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.

Key quotes

Impact of weak Yen shock on inflation bigger than that from oil shock.

Weak Yen pushes up prices for wide range of goods services, thereby gives bigger boost to consumer inflation excluding fresh food, energy.

Oil price rises put fairly big upward pressure on smaller number of goods related to energy, which means impact on CPI excluding fresh food, energy isn’t very big.

Weak Yen shock expands wage, profit margin and leads to increase in GDP deflater, while energy shock squeezes wage, profit margin and leads to decrease in GDP deflater.

Under risk scenario projecting elevated oil prices, weaker Yen, stock falls, real GDP forecasts will be -0.1% point to 0.2% point lower in fiscal 2026-2028 than BoJ’s median baseline projections.

Under risk scenario, core consumer inflation will overshoot significantly from BoJ’s median baseline projections, could hover around 3% in fiscal 2026, 2027.

Such overshoot of inflation could heighten medium-, long-term inflation expectations.

If there is big supply chain disruption, real GDP could undershoot sharply while bottlenecks could lead to non-linear rise in inflation.

BoJ will scrutinise various risk factors more than ever as growth, price developments could sharply deviate from its baseline projections depending on Middle East developments.

Market reaction

As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.02% on the day at 160.48.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

NZD/USD hangs near two-week low; seems vulnerable below 0.5850/200-day SMA

NZD/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick to the 200-day SMA support breakpoint.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate continue to underpin the USD, capping spot prices.
Traders now look to the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the US PCE Price Index for a fresh impetus.

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session move up to the 0.5845 area on Thursday and slides back closer to a two-and-a-half week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5825 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and seem vulnerable to this week’s retracement slide from the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal barrier amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, gains positive traction for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh high since April 13 amid a combination of supporting factors. The global risk sentiment remains fragile in the wake of stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) relatively hawkish tilt on Wednesday lends additional support to the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the NZD/USD pair.

US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reiterated that there will be no peace deal with the Islamic Republic unless they agree to give up the nuclear program. Trump further said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue. The continued disruptions of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and reaffirming hawkish Fed expectations.

As was widely expected, the US central bank held its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Notably, the decision saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Traders sharply reduced bets on any further Fed policy easing and are now pricing in over a 10% chance of a rate increase by year-end. This favors the USD bulls and validates the negative outlook for the NZD/USD pair.

The aforementioned factors offset expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint. This, along with an intraday failure near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside. Traders now look to important US macro data for a fresh impetus.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.15%	0.09%	0.06%	0.00%	-0.01%	0.00%	0.05%
EUR	-0.15%		-0.02%	-0.07%	-0.14%	-0.15%	-0.12%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.09%	0.02%		-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.11%	-0.09%	-0.05%
JPY	-0.06%	0.07%	0.04%		-0.07%	-0.08%	-0.11%	-0.04%
CAD	-0.01%	0.14%	0.12%	0.07%		-0.03%	-0.02%	0.05%
AUD	0.01%	0.15%	0.11%	0.08%	0.03%		0.03%	0.09%
NZD	-0.00%	0.12%	0.09%	0.11%	0.02%	-0.03%		0.05%
CHF	-0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	0.04%	-0.05%	-0.09%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

JPY flat lines after Fed holds rates, Japan warns on speculative moves

USD/JPY holds steady near 160.45 in Thursday’s early European session.
Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday; traders brace for the US Q1 GDP and Core PCE data.
Japan’s Katayama said authorities are on standby to take decisive action against speculative currency moves.

The USD/JPY pair steadies near a 21-month high of around 160.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines as Japanese authorities are on high alert for intervention after the Japanese Yen (JPY) breached the psychological level.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark interest rate steady in a range between 3.50% and 3.75% at the April policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed’s 8–4 decision to leave the rate unchanged was its most divided since 1992, drawing three dissents from officials who no longer think the bank should communicate a bias towards easing.

During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that near-term inflation expectations are rising, adding that he would stay on the Board of Governors for an indefinite period, even after his chairmanship ends. A hawkish Fed holding rates could provide some support to the Greenback against the JPY.

The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation report for March will be the highlights later on Thursday.

On the other hand, potential intervention threats from Japanese officials might underpin the JPY and cap the upside for the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD – Bullish USD to cap recovery from 0.7100/two-week low

AUD/USD stages a modest recovery from a two-week low, around 0.7100, touched on Wednesday.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran tensions continue to underpin the USD, warranting caution for bulls.
The technical setup suggests that any further move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped.

The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day’s heavy losses to the 0.7100 mark, or a two-week low.

Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance counter China’s mixed official PMIs and turn out to be a key factor offering some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, sticks to its positive tone near the highest level since April 13 on the back of persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, diminishing odds for any further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the USD and should cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices have repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the 0.7200 mark and have oscillated in a range over the past two weeks or so. Meanwhile, the overnight slide confirms a breakdown below the 0.7130-0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low touched in March. This, in turn, favors the AUD/USD bears, suggesting that the move higher might now be seen as a selling opportunity.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 40 and hints at modest bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory but flattening, suggesting downside pressure is softening rather than accelerating.

In the meantime, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7131, with a stronger barrier at the recent cycle high near 0.7223. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 0.7100 mark ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 0.7074. This is followed by the 50.0% level at 0.7027 and deeper supports at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 0.6981 and 0.6915, respectively, where buyers would likely attempt to slow any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.04%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.11%		-0.07%	-0.13%	-0.16%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-0.10%
GBP	-0.01%	0.07%		-0.02%	-0.08%	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.02%
JPY	0.00%	0.13%	0.02%		-0.06%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.04%
CAD	0.04%	0.16%	0.08%	0.06%		-0.08%	-0.06%	0.04%
AUD	0.11%	0.21%	0.12%	0.11%	0.08%		0.04%	0.12%
NZD	0.08%	0.17%	0.09%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.04%		0.08%
CHF	0.00%	0.10%	0.02%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.08%

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

GBP flat lines vs USD as traders await BoE policy update and US PCE Price Index

GBP/USD bulls seem hesitant as the Fed’s hawkish tilt and the US-Iran tensions underpin the USD.
Bets for two BoE rate hikes in 2026 offer support to the GBP and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the BoE decision and the crucial US PCE Price Index data.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick to the 1.3500 neighborhood, though it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3475-1.3480 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders look forward to the Bank of England (BoE) event and the US inflation data for a fresh impetus.

The UK central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is expected to keep interest rates on hold. The current market pricing, however, points to a greater possibility of two rate hikes in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from the war-driven surge in energy prices. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and the post-meeting press conference, where comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be scrutinized for cues about the interest rate path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the British Pound (GBP).

Traders will further take cues from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which should further provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair later today. In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, along with the US-Iran stalemate, might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the currency pair. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement.

Traders were quick to reduce bets on any further easing by the Fed in 2026; instead, they are now pricing in over a 10% chance of a rate increase by the year-end. On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s new proposal to end the two-month conflict and reiterated that there will be no peace deal with the Islamic Republic unless it agrees to give up the nuclear program. Trump further added that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, which keeps geopolitical risks in play. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD – Hovers around 50-day EMA near 1.1700

EUR/USD may hover near its eight-month low around 1.1411.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 48 signals weakening bullish momentum and a consolidative trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near 1.1678.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair has slipped below the ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds just under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-day EMA, which together suggest a capped near-term tone despite the recent recovery from lower levels.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias, reinforcing the view that upside attempts may struggle while price remains below these key dynamic barriers.

On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

The immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.1700. A return to the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/USD pair to test the two-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1940. A sustained break above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.09%	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.05%	-0.14%	-0.07%	-0.00%
EUR	-0.09%		-0.05%	-0.13%	-0.14%	-0.21%	-0.14%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.01%	0.05%		-0.04%	-0.07%	-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.02%
JPY	0.03%	0.13%	0.04%		-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.00%
CAD	0.05%	0.14%	0.07%	0.03%		-0.10%	-0.04%	0.05%
AUD	0.14%	0.21%	0.15%	0.10%	0.10%		0.07%	0.15%
NZD	0.07%	0.14%	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%	-0.07%		0.07%
CHF	0.00%	0.07%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.05%	-0.15%	-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD drops as strong US data and Iran impasse lift Dollar bids

Strong Durable Goods Orders reinforced confidence in the US economy.
Higher yields and firm oil prices supported the Greenback’s rebound.
Traders now await Fed and ECB decisions for fresh direction.

EUR/USD drops by some 0.17% during the North American session as a possible resolution of the US-Iran conflict seems far from ending, while Durable Goods Orders data in the US suggest that the economy remains solid. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1684 after reaching a daily high of 1.1720.

Euro weakens as yields jump before Fed and ECB rate decisions now

High energy prices are underpinning the US Dollar, which, of late, has been correlated with WTI, posting back-to-back bullish days and rising 0.27% in the day, according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.66.

US Treasury yields are soaring, with the 10-year Treasury note up 5 basis points to 4.398%, a sign that investors are less confident the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs in the near term.

The US President Donald Trump urged Iran to sign a deal as he prepared the US Navy for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, as negotiations have stalled.

Aside from this, US Core Durable Goods Orders in March rose sharply 3.3% from February’s 1.6% print, crushing estimates for a minimal 0.6% increase, a sign that business spending is picking up, driven by companies spending on AI to improve profit margins. Headline goods orders improved from a -1.2% YoY contraction, to 0.8% exceeding forecasts of 0.5%.

Across the pond, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany rose from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY, missing estimates of 3%. Monthly, the German HICP decreased form 1.2% to 0.5%, below forecasts for a 0.8% jump.

Fed and ECB meetings up next

Now, traders’ eyes would be on monetary policy meetings in both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve is projected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the attention would be on Powell’s decision to stay at the Fed until his term as Governor ends, or whether he would leave his place open, which would increase Trump’s allies on the committee.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is projected to keep rates unchanged, but for the rest of the year, money markets see three basis points of rate hikes towards the end of the year, as revealed by Prime Terminal’s implied forward rates curve.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1690, holding just above the triple simple moving average (SMA) clustered around 1.1649, which now acts as immediate support. The pair, however, remains capped by the broader trend structure, with former rising support now sitting above spot near recent highs around 1.1760 and converging with the dominant downward resistance line closer to 1.1800, suggesting rallies are still vulnerable while price trades beneath this confluence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 50.4 hovers around neutral, hinting at a loss of directional conviction after the recent recovery from mid-1.15s.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former rising-support line around 1.1760, ahead of the broader downward resistance trend zone near 1.1800, where sellers are likely to re-emerge unless the pair can sustain a clear break higher. On the downside, the triple SMA support at roughly 1.1650 is the first level to watch; a daily close below this floor would expose a deeper pullback toward the mid-1.15 area, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative stance within the broader corrective structure.

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	0.16%	0.38%	0.03%	-0.08%	0.43%	0.45%
EUR	-0.05%		0.13%	0.26%	0.00%	-0.11%	0.41%	0.42%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.13%		0.17%	-0.12%	-0.24%	0.28%	0.29%
JPY	-0.38%	-0.26%	-0.17%		-0.30%	-0.44%	0.16%	0.18%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.00%	0.12%	0.30%		-0.07%	0.46%	0.42%
AUD	0.08%	0.11%	0.24%	0.44%	0.07%		0.52%	0.53%
NZD	-0.43%	-0.41%	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.46%	-0.52%		0.02%
CHF	-0.45%	-0.42%	-0.29%	-0.18%	-0.42%	-0.53%	-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD slides as US Dollar gains on geopolitical tensions ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD weakens as softer Australian CPI and a firm US Dollar pressure the Aussie.
US-Iran tensions remain elevated as peace talks stall and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed by softer-than-expected Australian inflation data, while fading hopes that the US-Iran war will end anytime soon support the Greenback.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7139, down nearly 0.60% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.78, up about 0.15%.

Market sentiment weakens after Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump and oil companies discussed plans to maintain the Iran blockade for months if needed, citing a White House official. Trump also warned that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon,” he wrote on Truth Social. The comments follow US skepticism over Iran’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while delaying nuclear talks.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due at 18:00 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range as policymakers assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target, with rising Oil prices increasing upside risks. This has dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook. Markets will therefore focus on guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

A hawkish tone could further support the US Dollar, while any signal that the Fed remains open to rate cuts later this year may limit the Greenback’s upside. However, downside in the US Dollar is likely to remain limited amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook continues to provide underlying support for the Aussie, the latest inflation data showed Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.6% in March from 3.7% in February, but still below expectations of 4.7%.