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CAD flat lines as traders await US PMI data

  • USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3670 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • Trump extended the ceasefire and vowed to continue the US blockade on Iranian ports.
  • Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the S&P Global US PMI report for April, which is due on Thursday. 

The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note around 1.3670 during the early European session on Thursday. The pair steadies as traders await signs of diplomatic progress to end the war in the Middle East.  

The US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request as US President Donald Trump waits for a unified proposal from Iran. Nonetheless, tensions remain high in the Middle East as Tehran keeps a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage through the trade route and firing on ships. 

Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated Israel’s warmongering and “flagrant” ceasefire breaches made reopening the Strait of Hormuz “impossible.” Surging oil prices, driven by Middle East conflict risks, lift the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). 

The preliminary reading of the S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the highlight later on Thursday. The Manufacturing PMI figure is expected to improve slightly to 52.5 in April from 52.3 in the previous reading. Services PMI is projected to rise to 50.0 in April, versus 49.8 prior. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback against the CAD in the near term. 

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When are the German/ Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs for April and how could they affect EUR/USD?

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview

The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April is due for release today at 07:30 and 08:00 GMT, respectively.

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.

The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to have expanded again, but at a moderate pace due to a slowdown in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The Composite PMI is seen arriving lower at 51.1 from 51.9 in March.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to have fallen to 51.3 from the previous reading of 52.2. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is estimated to have dropped to 50.3 from the prior release of 50.9.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI for April also shows that the overall private sector output expanded at a moderate pace. Eurozone’s manufacturing output growth slowed down, and the services sector activity contracted. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the economic activity.

According to preliminary estimates, the Eurozone Composite PMI drops to 50.2 from 50.7 in March. The Manufacturing PMI is seen arriving lower at 50.8 from the prior release of 51.6. The Services PMI is expected to have contracted to 49.8 after slowing down to 50.2 in March.

How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?         

EUR/USD is marginally down to near 1.1700 during the early European trade on Thursday. The pair has corrected to near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1691, but sits north of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666 of the 1.1408–1.2082 swing, suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to hold above the 60.00 level, indicating balanced momentum with an upside bias.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745; a daily close above this barrier would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.1825, followed by 1.1938 and the cycle high region near 1.2082. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1691, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666; a deeper setback would bring the 23.6% level at 1.1567 into view, with more important structural support down at the 1.1408 swing low.

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EUR/USD: PMI signals and softer pair – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights that Euro area April flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) are a key input ahead of the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with Manufacturing PMI expected to drop below 50 while Services PMI holds at 50.2. The bank notes unusually high uncertainty around the indices and stresses that price components will be crucial. In markets, EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700.

Euro PMIs and weaker currency tone

“In the euro area, the April flash PMI report is released, a key input ahead of the ECB meeting. We expect the manufacturing PMI to show a steep decline from 51.6 to 49.6, driven by higher energy prices.”

“The surprise increase in the headline index in March was largely due to longer delivery times, which pose an upward risk to the headline number again. As such, monitoring the output sub-component will be crucial.”

“The services PMI fell more than expected in March to 50.2 and we expect it to remain at same level in April, as services are less directly hit than manufacturing. However, the uncertainty of the index is unusually high, so interpretation should be more cautious than usual.”

“Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked-in stand-off over the SOH [Strait of Hormuz] dominating the news. Asian equities are down while US treasuries rise a couple of basis points this morning and EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700.”

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JPY strengthens on extended US-Iran ceasefire

  • USD/JPY softens to around 159.35 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
  • Trump said the ceasefire agreed on April 7 would stay in place indefinitely. 
  • The BoJ is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75% during the April meeting.

The USD/JPY pair loses traction to near 159.35 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran weighs on the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The preliminary reading of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be published later on Thursday. 

Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran. Iran vowed not to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid the US naval blockade despite the ceasefire extension. Earlier, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that she doesn’t view Iran’s assertion that it seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as a violation of the ceasefire. 

Meanwhile, Lebanon will push for a one-month extension of the current truce with Israel during a new round of meetings in Washington on Thursday. Talks between Lebanon and Israel on April 14 were their first in decades, and the US soon after announced the 10-day truce, set to expire on Sunday.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided signaling an April rate hike, citing high economic uncertainty from the “negative supply shock” of the war. Financial markets now widely anticipate the Japanese central bank to hold rates steady until at least June 2026. 

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 72%-77% probability of a rate increase in May, with expectations for a hike of nearly 99% by June, according to Reuters. 

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GBP/USD Tests nine-day EMA support after slipping below 1.3500

  • GBP/USD may rebound toward the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 indicates positive momentum without overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493.

GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.3500 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for bearish reversal as the pair moves below the ascending channel pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays marginally above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and comfortably over the 50-period EMA. This alignment of short- and medium-term EMAs below spot hints at underlying demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, allowing room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

The return to the ascending channel would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the initial barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. Further advances would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3810. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3493, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3427. A sustained break below these short- and medium-term averages would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.11%0.05%0.02%0.23%0.24%0.12%
EUR-0.07%0.05%-0.02%-0.05%0.14%0.16%0.03%
GBP-0.11%-0.05%-0.06%-0.10%0.11%0.12%-0.02%
JPY-0.05%0.02%0.06%-0.04%0.19%0.17%0.06%
CAD-0.02%0.05%0.10%0.04%0.23%0.22%0.08%
AUD-0.23%-0.14%-0.11%-0.19%-0.23%0.02%-0.15%
NZD-0.24%-0.16%-0.12%-0.17%-0.22%-0.02%-0.15%
CHF-0.12%-0.03%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%0.15%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/USD Turns upside down as market sentiment turns risk-off

  • AUD/USD surrenders early gains and turns negative as investors turn risk-averse after Iranian attacks on three ships in Hormuz.
  • Higher oil prices due to the Hormuz closure remain a key concern for global markets.
  • Australian Composite PMI returns above 50.0 in April.

The AUD/USD pair gives up its early gains and trades 0.24% lower around 0.7145 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the market sentiment turns risk-averse, following Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.11%0.03%0.02%0.25%0.29%0.12%
EUR-0.06%0.07%-0.04%-0.04%0.16%0.23%0.04%
GBP-0.11%-0.07%-0.09%-0.11%0.11%0.17%-0.03%
JPY-0.03%0.04%0.09%-0.02%0.22%0.24%0.08%
CAD-0.02%0.04%0.11%0.02%0.24%0.27%0.08%
AUD-0.25%-0.16%-0.11%-0.22%-0.24%0.06%-0.16%
NZD-0.29%-0.23%-0.17%-0.24%-0.27%-0.06%-0.20%
CHF-0.12%-0.04%0.03%-0.08%-0.08%0.16%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.53% lower to near 7,100, reflecting a weak risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.1% to near 98.70, the highest level seen in over a week.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Tehran fired on three ships in the Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters, and is bringing those ships to Iran.

Though the US-Iran ceasefire extension has diminished fears of military activities, higher oil prices due to the Hormuz closure are keeping currencies from economies that rely on oil imports to meet their energy needs under pressure.

On the economic data front, Australian flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April has come in stronger than the previous reading. The Composite PMI returns above 50.0, a figure that separates expansion from contraction. The overall business activity improved to 50.1 from 46.6 in March due to higher output from both the manufacturing and the services sectors.

AUD/USD technical analysis

IAUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7145 as of writing; however, the pair holds a constructive near‑term bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7086, keeping the short-term trend supported after its recent recovery from sub-0.70 levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 60 stays in positive territory without entering overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is still present but not yet stretched.

On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20-period EMA at 0.7086, where a break would signal fading bullish pressure and expose a deeper pullback toward recent lows. As long as AUD/USD defends this moving average on closing bases, the technical picture favors dip-buying strategies and keeps scope open for further gains in the sessions ahead.

Looking up, the multi-year high at 0.7222 is the major barrier for the pair; however, a breakout above the same would open the scope of extending the rally towards 0.7300.

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USD/CHF climbs further beyond mid-0.7800s as Hormuz risks continue to underpin USD

  • USD/CHF attracts buyers for the third consecutive day amid a broadly firmer US Dollar.
  • The Hormuz standoff and less dovish Fed expectations continue to underpin the buck.
  • Bulls now await sustained strength above the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets.

The USD/CHF pair turns positive for the third straight day following an intraday dip to the 0.7830 region and climbs to a fresh one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices climb beyond mid-0.7800s and look to build on this week’s recovery move from the lowest level since March 11 amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).

The initial optimism over a temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire fades rather quickly amid the lack of progress in peace talks and the instability in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports will continue, while Iran has set the complete removal of the US naval blockade as a precondition for resuming negotiations. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, assisting the USD in prolonging its uptrend for the third straight day and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters. This comes on top of continued disruptions to energy supplies through the strategic waterway, which remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns. Furthermore, a resilient US economy increases the threshold for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. This further supports the USD and validates the positive outlook for the USD/CHF pair.

Despite the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop, bulls might still await a sustained move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for further gains. Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the flash PMIs – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, remains on fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran saga, which might continue to infuse volatility around the USD/CHF pair.

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EUR/USD slips as Hormuz tensions persist despite Iran ceasefire extension

  • EUR/USD weakens as Strait of Hormuz tensions offset Iran ceasefire extension.
  • US naval blockade and stalled peace talks keep geopolitical risks elevated.
  • Elevated Oil prices and Fed outlook support the US Dollar, capping EUR/USD upside.

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offset the impact of the US-Iran ceasefire extension, keeping the Greenback supported.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1712, extending losses for the second straight day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.57, near a one-week high.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media. The development follows earlier reports of two vessels and a third ship coming under attack in the strategic waterway, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The escalation comes as the US naval blockade remains in place after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran just hours before its expiry. The move reflects Washington’s strategy to maintain economic pressure on Tehran, while Iranian leaders have said the US must end the blockade if it wants to resume negotiations.

Trump said talks with Iran could take place as soon as Friday, according to the New York Post, while Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran has not yet decided whether to participate.

With key differences remaining over nuclear and missile issues, markets view the ceasefire as a temporary pause in military escalation, suggesting the conflict may not end anytime soon. This is limiting downside in the US Dollar and capping EUR/USD’s upside after a corrective rebound earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Oil prices remain elevated, keeping inflation risks in focus and shaping central bank expectations. Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer, while markets are pricing in the possibility of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes.

On the data front, the US economic calendar is largely empty on Wednesday, leaving markets driven by geopolitical headlines. In the Eurozone, preliminary Consumer Confidence for April dropped to -20.6 from -16.3 previously, marking its lowest level in over three years and pointing to weakening household sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices.