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EUR/USD Price Holds onto gains near 1.1730

  • EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1735 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
  • Investors await the ECB commentaries and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
  • The US GDP growth remained at 2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year.

The EUR/USD pair clings to Thursday’s gains near 1.1735 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto the previous day’s losses, which were driven by suspected Japan’s intervention in forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades weakly near Thursday’s low around 98.00.

On Thursday, the US preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrived weaker than projected. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.3% estimates.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive higher at 53.0 from the previous reading of 52.7.

During the Asian trade, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm, with investors awaiting commentaries from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, following the completion of the so-called quiet period after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

EUR/USD trades firmly at around 1.1735, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1702 and between key Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest swing. The pair is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 1.1745, suggesting topside progress is slowing but not yet reversing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at constructive, yet not overextended, upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1825, with further barriers at 1.1938 and 1.2082. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1702, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408 acting as a more distant structural floor.

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AUD/JPY Price Gains ground, maintaining bullish bias above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY edges higher to around 113.10 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps a positive tone above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI pointing to neutral but slightly positive momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.30; the initial support level to watch is 111.10. 

The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 113.10 during the early European session on Friday. The cross remains firm after pulling back from a multi-decade high of 114.72. However, the potential upside for AUD/JPY might be limited amid intervention fears. 

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday declined to confirm the Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention directly but delivered a pointed warning to speculators, noting that Japan’s Golden Week holidays have just started and that there is no change to his view that market moves remain speculative in nature. 

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could underpin the Aussie. Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March, primarily due to fuel price shocks linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the figure was slightly below the 4.7% forecast, it remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, keeping pressure on the central bank to hike rates. 

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower Bollinger Band. Price is testing the Bollinger 20-day simple moving average (SMA) pivot at 113.30, suggesting ongoing upside interest after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 points to neutral but slightly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger mid-line at 113.30 would open the way toward the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 115.45. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 111.10, ahead of stronger, medium-term support at the 100-day EMA around 109.30, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a deeper correction unfolds.

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EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, mixed US data weigh on Dollar

  • EUR/USD advances despite a cautious ECB stance and unchanged rates.
  • Energy-driven inflation risks complicate the Eurozone outlook.
  • The US Dollar softens amid mixed US data and steady Fed expectations.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1690 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.11% on the day, after hitting a three-week low at 1.1655 earlier in the day.

The pair benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD), as mixed economic indicators are weighing on the Greenback, notably US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth coming in at 2% in the first quarter, below expectations of 2.3%, although significantly higher than the previous reading of 0.5%.

At the same time, inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index reached 3.5% YoY in March, confirming persistent price pressures, while Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K from a revised 215K in the previous week, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. This mixed backdrop is maintaining uncertainty around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy moves.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the current policy stance remains appropriate, while highlighting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to global uncertainty.

On the European side, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank noted that incoming data have been broadly in line with its projections, while warning that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, noting that policymakers extensively debated a potential rate hike before unanimously deciding to hold rates steady. She also highlighted that rising energy prices could weigh on investment from both firms and households, amid elevated uncertainty and weakening confidence.

Although long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored around the 2% target, short-term expectations have risen significantly, particularly due to geopolitical tensions. This context reinforces the ECB’s cautious stance, as it prefers to wait for greater clarity before adjusting its monetary policy.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.07%-0.25%-2.26%-0.12%-0.55%-0.67%-0.94%
EUR0.07%-0.14%-2.18%-0.05%-0.45%-0.57%-0.84%
GBP0.25%0.14%-2.03%0.10%-0.30%-0.42%-0.70%
JPY2.26%2.18%2.03%2.18%1.77%1.59%1.33%
CAD0.12%0.05%-0.10%-2.18%-0.43%-0.58%-0.82%
AUD0.55%0.45%0.30%-1.77%0.43%-0.12%-0.38%
NZD0.67%0.57%0.42%-1.59%0.58%0.12%-0.27%
CHF0.94%0.84%0.70%-1.33%0.82%0.38%0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Lagarde speaks on policy outlook after leaving key rates unchanged

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB’s decision to leave key rates unchanged at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

ECB press conference key quotes

“Economy was showing momentum before current turbulence.”

“Domestic demand remains main driver of growth.”

“Outlook highly uncertain.”

“Incoming info suggests that conflict is weighing on activity.”

“Business less confident about future.”

“Supply chains coming under pressure.”

“High energy to weigh on incomes.”

“High energy costs to make firms, households reluctant to invest.”

“Labour demand has cooled further.”

“Households in solid financial position.”

“Favourable starting point provides some cushioning.”

“Fiscal responses should be temporary, targeted, tailored.”

“Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months.”

“Wage tracker indicates easing labour costs.”

“Surveys indicate rise in other costs.”

“Most measures of longer term inflation expectations stand around 2%.”

“Increase in energy prices will keep inflation well above 2% in near term.”

“Will closely monitor size and impact of energy price surge.”

“Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.”

“Worsening of global market sentiment could further dampen demand.”

“Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside.”

“Not going to say whether we’re closer to any particular scenario.”

“We are certainly moving away from baseline.”

“To where exactly? I’m not sure is the most relevant assessment.”

“Most critical is what impact energy prices will have.”

“Made an informed decision of yet insufficient info.”

“Debated at length various options.”

“Decision was unanimous.”

“Debated at length a hike.”

“Some governors may argue both sides of proposals.”

“Hard data is broadly in line with projections.”

“There is such uncertainty, we need to revisit all issues at next meeting.”

“Given position we’re at, six weeks will be the right time to assess developments.

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USD/CAD edges lower as Oil retreat, Fed-BoC policy split keep volatility elevated

  • USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.3655 after a flat day previously.
  • Declining Oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar, although structural support remains.
  • Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoC keep volatility elevated.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3655 on Thursday, down 0.21% on the day, after stabilizing in the previous day. The pair faces short-term pressure due to a modest pullback in the US Dollar, although downside momentum may remain limited in an uncertain macro environment.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shows resilience despite the recent decline in Oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked currency. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is falling after several days of gains, trading around $103 per barrel, which typically weighs on the Loonie given Canada’s position as the largest Crude exporter to the United States (US). However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions continue to support the broader outlook for Canada’s energy sector.

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and adopted a wait-and-see stance while keeping options open. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasizes a data-dependent approach, noting that no preset path is in place. Inflation is projected slightly higher for 2026 and wage pressures remain persistent, limiting the scope for near-term easing. The central bank also signaled that trade shocks from the United States could justify rate cuts, while sustained energy-driven inflation could require tightening.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) corrects lower after two days of gains. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates within the 3.5%-3.75% range, with a divided vote reflecting rare internal disagreement. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains elevated, partly due to higher energy prices, reinforcing a broadly hawkish stance.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.26%-0.32%-2.00%-0.21%-0.52%-0.54%-0.67%
EUR0.26%-0.03%-1.69%0.05%-0.25%-0.25%-0.38%
GBP0.32%0.03%-1.62%0.09%-0.20%-0.21%-0.36%
JPY2.00%1.69%1.62%1.70%1.40%1.33%1.22%
CAD0.21%-0.05%-0.09%-1.70%-0.32%-0.35%-0.46%
AUD0.52%0.25%0.20%-1.40%0.32%-0.01%-0.13%
NZD0.54%0.25%0.21%-1.33%0.35%0.00%-0.13%
CHF0.67%0.38%0.36%-1.22%0.46%0.13%0.13%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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GBP faces pressure after BoE leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected

  • The Pound Sterling comes under pressure against its peers after the BoE’s interest rate decision.
  • The BoE maintains the status quo, leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
  • On Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure, prima facie, after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. As expected, the BoE has left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. This is the third straight meeting that the BoE has maintained the status quo.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill was the one Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member who dissented from the hold decision and voted for an interest rate hike. Pill was expected to advocate an interest rate hike, as he stated in an event in the middle of the month, that interest rates should be raised for inflation to return to the central bank’s 2% target.

The BoE needs to make decisions that give “the most insurance” against a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock, Pill argued, warning against a “wait and see approach,” Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faces intense selling despite growing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz outlook and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) hold.

United States (US) President Donald Trump stated on late Wednesday that Washington’s naval blockade of Iranian sea ports will continue until Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, however, three members of the rate-setting committee dissented the decision and advocated for a move away from the monetary easing bias.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. On an annualized basis, the US GDP growth is expected to have remained higher at 2.3% against the previous reading of 0.5%.

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USD/INR surrenders some gains, remains close to record highs

  • The Indian Rupee recovers slightly from its record lows of around 95.35 against the US Dollar.
  • Oil prices hit a fresh over seven-week high as US President Trump vows to prolong the blockade on Iran.
  • More Fed members call for a shift from easing bias.

The Indian Rupee (INR) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon market hours in India on Thursday after plummeting to record lows. The USD/INR pair corrects slightly to near 95.10 as the US Dollar turns upside down, but is still close to its all-time high 95.35. The pair rallied in the opening as oil prices gained sharply, following remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that Washington’s naval blockade on Iran will remain intact.

Trump warns prolong naval blockade on Iran

On late Wednesday, US President Trump announced that he has rejected the recent peace proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply, whose closure has prompted the supply crisis and has boosted oil prices, which could have delayed negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

US President Trump said that Washington will continue the naval blockade of Iran until he secures a deal with Tehran to address the country’s nuclear program.

At the press time, the WTI Oil price ticks lower to near $105.00 after facing slight profit booking near its fresh over seven-week high of $107.35 posted earlier in the day.

Currencies from economies, such as India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Fed sees current policy stance as appropriate

The US Dollar gives back its early losses and slides lower; however, its outlook remains upbeat, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the “number of officials who would support a move away from an easing bias has increased”.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% lower to near 98.80.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with an 8-4 majority. One member dissented in favor of a rate cut, while three dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias, according to the monetary policy statement.

In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell warned that the central bank is vigilant to “risks on both sides of our mandate”, adding, “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.”

FIIs continue to dump their stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remain net sellers in the Indian stock market amid surging oil prices, which have raised concerns about India Inc.’s earnings projections. Overseas investors have remained net sellers in all previous eight trading days, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 22,863.50

Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more upside towards 96.00

USD/INR posts a fresh all-time high near 95.35 during the day on Thursday. The pair holds a firm bullish bias as spot remains well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.83, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 65.77, indicating strong but not yet extreme upside momentum, which suggests buyers still retain control, though the risk of overextension is building.

On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-EMA around 93.81, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip buyers and maintain the broader advance while it holds. A daily close below this dynamic floor would hint at fading upside pressure and open the door to a more extended correction toward prior price congestion levels not yet tested in the current leg. Looking up, the price has entered uncharted territory and will likely extend its rally towards 96.00.