Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/CHF stays near 0.7800 as US dollar firms on US-Iran tensions

  • USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty over US–Iran talks.
  • President Trump said Vice President Vance will leave Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations.
  • Traders expect SNB policymakers ready to intervene in FX markets to curb excessive Swiss Franc appreciation.

USD/CHF edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7790 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from increasing risk aversion, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding US–Iran ceasefire negotiations. Traders assess ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the 14-day ceasefire deadline approaches.

Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump stated that US Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.” Iran is also sending a team, although it is unclear who would lead the delegation.

President Donald Trump has issued mixed signals earlier on the Iran war, saying he is not rushing to end it while expressing optimism about renewed talks with Tehran ahead of Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry.

However, the upside of the USD/CHF pair could be limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may find support from safe-haven inflows. Additionally, the CHF may also gain ground as rising concerns over a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Meanwhile, SNB meeting minutes from March highlighted growing uncertainty surrounding Switzerland’s economic outlook.

Market participants expect the SNB to intervene in FX markets to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Traders await Swiss Trade Balance data due later in the day.

Currency Hedger No Comments

NZD/USD struggles to extend gains above 0.5920, outlook remains firm

  • NZD/USD remains broadly firm above 0.5900 as market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
  • Iran’s confirmation for another round of peace talks with the US has improved investors’ risk appetite.
  • NZ Q1 CPI grew at a stronger pace of 0.9%m beating 0.8% estimates.

The NZD/USD pair trades 0.3% higher above 0.5900 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but struggles to extend its gains above 0.5920. The Kiwi pair broadly reflects strength as the market sentiment turns risk-on due to reports claiming that Iran has agreed to another round of peace talks with the United States (US).

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.14%0.10%0.02%0.15%-0.13%0.12%
EUR-0.12%0.03%-0.02%-0.10%0.04%-0.25%0.01%
GBP-0.14%-0.03%-0.04%-0.11%0.00%-0.28%-0.01%
JPY-0.10%0.02%0.04%-0.07%0.05%-0.26%0.02%
CAD-0.02%0.10%0.11%0.07%0.12%-0.18%0.10%
AUD-0.15%-0.04%-0.01%-0.05%-0.12%-0.30%-0.02%
NZD0.13%0.25%0.28%0.26%0.18%0.30%0.28%
CHF-0.12%-0.01%0.01%-0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.28%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

In the Asian trade, S&P 500 futures are 0.15% higher to near 7,120, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher to near 98.10.

A report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) states that Iran has told regional mediators that it would send a negotiating team to Islamabad on Tuesday for the second round of talks with the US. However, there has been no official confirmation by Tehran.

On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now. Baghaei added that the US seems “not serious” about pursuing the diplomatic process, remains committed to ‘aggressive acts’ and has violated ceasefire provisions.

On the domestic front, higher-than-projected New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to force traders to raise bets supporting interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in the near term.

Earlier in the data, the data showed that the NZ CPI grew by 0.9%, beating estimates of 0.8% and the previous reading of 0.6%. On an annualized basis, price pressures rose steadily by 3.1%. while they were anticipated to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.9%.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD – Falls toward 1.3500 near nine-day EMA support

  • GBP/USD may find the primary barrier at the two-month high of 1.3599.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 59 remains positive, without indicating overbought conditions.
  • The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500.

GBP/USD inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the pair moves within the ascending channel pattern.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mildly bullish near-term bias, holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading above the longer one hints at constructive momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the pair remains supported on dips.

The initial barrier lies at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3750. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to approach the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find its immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3500, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3493. Further declines below this confluence support zone would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3423. A sustained break below the medium-term average would expose a nearly five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.10%0.06%0.00%0.10%-0.32%0.08%
EUR-0.09%0.02%-0.02%-0.09%0.04%-0.41%0.00%
GBP-0.10%-0.02%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%-0.43%-0.01%
JPY-0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.05%0.02%-0.43%0.00%
CAD-0.00%0.09%0.10%0.05%0.08%-0.36%0.07%
AUD-0.10%-0.04%-0.01%-0.02%-0.08%-0.44%-0.01%
NZD0.32%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.36%0.44%0.43%
CHF-0.08%-0.00%0.01%-0.01%-0.07%0.00%-0.43%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/CHF – US Dollar bulls remain capped below 0.7845

  • USD/CHF bounces up from 0.7775 but remains capped below 0.7845.
  • Markets have turned cautious as the US-Iran peace talks wobble.
  • The pair maintains its bearish trend from late-March highs intact.

The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.

Market sentiment has turned cautious on Monday, as hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war wane, which is providing marginal support to the US Dollar. Iranian authorities are threatening to skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday

Investors, nevertheless, remain faithful that these moves are part of a complex process, and that Washington and Tehran will redress the situation and return to the negotiating table this week. This is keeping most US Dollar pairs at levels relatively close to last week’s peaks.

Technical Analysis: Treading water around $0.7800

USD/CHF Chart Analysis

The USD/CHF reversal from the 0.8050 area in late March has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the January 27 low to the March 31 high, near 0.7775, but the near-term bias remains negative, as upside attempts remain capped below the 0.7845 area.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced out of oversold territory toward the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers marginally above zero with a shallow positive profile, which only hints at fading downside pressure rather than a decisive turn higher.

The pair should breach the mentioned 0.7845 level (April 16 high), to set its focus on the April 8 and 10 highs, at the 0.7930 area, and the descending trendline, now around 0.7950. On the downside, below the mentioned 0.7775, the next target is the area between 78.2% retracement, at 0.7700, and the February 27 low, at 0.7670.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%0.02%0.22%0.00%0.23%0.11%-0.03%
EUR0.02%0.03%0.21%0.00%0.24%0.12%-0.03%
GBP-0.02%-0.03%0.19%-0.01%0.20%0.09%-0.07%
JPY-0.22%-0.21%-0.19%-0.18%0.03%-0.13%-0.24%
CAD-0.01%-0.00%0.00%0.18%0.21%0.07%-0.05%
AUD-0.23%-0.24%-0.20%-0.03%-0.21%-0.11%-0.27%
NZD-0.11%-0.12%-0.09%0.13%-0.07%0.11%-0.15%
CHF0.03%0.03%0.07%0.24%0.05%0.27%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Pound Sterling – GBP trades mixed at the start of UK data-packed week

  • The Pound Sterling trades mixed against its peers while investors await a string of UK data.
  • The UK’s headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% in March.
  • Iran refuses to return to the table for another round of talks with the US.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain volatile as a slew of United Kingdom (UK) economic data is scheduled to be published this week.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.00%0.19%-0.01%0.22%0.09%-0.04%
EUR0.05%0.05%0.22%0.01%0.26%0.14%-0.02%
GBP0.00%-0.05%0.17%-0.02%0.20%0.10%-0.07%
JPY-0.19%-0.22%-0.17%-0.18%0.03%-0.13%-0.25%
CAD0.01%-0.01%0.02%0.18%0.22%0.07%-0.06%
AUD-0.22%-0.26%-0.20%-0.03%-0.22%-0.13%-0.28%
NZD-0.09%-0.14%-0.10%0.13%-0.07%0.13%-0.14%
CHF0.04%0.02%0.07%0.25%0.06%0.28%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Investors will pay close attention to the UK employment data for THE three months ending February, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for March to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.

The UK employment data on Tuesday is expected to show that the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8%. The ILO Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 5.2%.

The inflation report on Wednesday will likely demonstrate a strong growth in the headline CPI by 3% YoY, against 3% in February, in the wake of higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East. On Friday, the UK Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen 0.2% on a monthly basis after declining 0.4% in February.

Meanwhile, the recent commentary from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, suggests that the central bank will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting on April 30. Bailey said that there is “no rush” for monetary policy adjustments despite a negative energy shock.

This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be released on Thursday.

Against the US Dollar (USD), the Pound Sterling recovers a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near 1.3515. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains uncertain amid uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the day that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

(This story was corrected at 11:30 GMT to say in the third paragraph that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8% and not the previous reading of 3.5%)

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/INR jumps higher as Oil price recovery batters Indian Rupee

  • The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar amid renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
  • A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
  • Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).

Hormuz closure boosts oil prices

WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.

On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.

US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions

Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.11%0.20%0.24%0.04%0.35%0.29%0.16%
EUR-0.11%0.09%0.09%-0.08%0.23%0.19%0.04%
GBP-0.20%-0.09%0.00%-0.16%0.14%0.10%-0.06%
JPY-0.24%-0.09%0.00%-0.15%0.14%0.05%-0.06%
CAD-0.04%0.08%0.16%0.15%0.29%0.22%0.10%
AUD-0.35%-0.23%-0.14%-0.14%-0.29%-0.05%-0.17%
NZD-0.29%-0.19%-0.10%-0.05%-0.22%0.05%-0.14%
CHF-0.16%-0.04%0.06%0.06%-0.10%0.17%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.

Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.

On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers above 20-day EMA

USD/INR recovers its Friday’s losses and rises further to near 93.25 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD: Political noise and softer BoE pricing – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling has held up even as markets scale back Bank of England tightening expectations to just one 25bp hike this year, while ING expects no change in rates. Political scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on sentiment. ING warns GBP/USD may surrender recent gains, eyeing 1.3380/1.3400 as an initial downside target.

Sterling resilience faces policy and politics

“Sterling has been performing reasonably well despite the market removing a lot of the expected Bank of England tightening this year. The market still prices one 25bp hike this year, while our team sees unchanged rates. That hike may not be priced out until oil prices drop, however.”

“There is also the small matter of politics in the UK. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today make a statement in parliament to potentially correct the record on the approval process for the former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.”

“This will be a tough session for PM Starmer and one which will extend into tomorrow, when the top civil servant involved in the approval process also appears at a parliamentary hearing.”

“GBP/USD could well hand back a big chunk of recent gains this week, with a first target being around the 1.3380/3400 area.”

Currency Hedger No Comments

USD: Volatility shifts support weaker trend – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a sharp fall in the US Dollar, leaving year-to-date performance broadly flat and in line with the longer-term dollar-down trend. The bank argues that recent volatility episodes suggest only muted Dollar upside, consistent with a regime shift linked to de-dollarisation and concerns over US fiscal and institutional dynamics.

Dollar-down regime and volatility dynamics

“April’s recovery in risk appetite has coincided with a big drop in the US dollar. This leaves year-to-date performance essentially flat, maintaining the longer-term “dollar-down” trend.”

“Given ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty, there is a strong chance that market volatility will pick up again. However, March’s market action suggests that any resulting boost to the dollar could be fairly subdued.”

“Indeed, the trend over the past couple of years indicates that the dollar remains relatively static during episodes of volatility. This represents a major regime shift.”

“It may reflect gradual de-dollarisation, mounting concerns over US public finances and institutional integrity, and a growing belief that the Fed is hamstrung in responding to inflation shocks – a stark contrast to its more aggressive stance in 2022.”

“With the broadening out narrative somewhat dependent on sustained dollar weakness, recent market action proves that this scenario remains plausible in 2026.”