EUR/USD stands above 1.1800 amid hopes of new peace talks in Iran

April 16, 2026
  • EUR/USD hovers right above 1.1800, on track for a nine-day rally.
  • Rising hopes of the resolution of the Middle East conflict are hammering the safe-haven USD.
  • Trump threatened to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Trump if he does not step aside in May 15.

The (EUR) edges up against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading right above 1.1800 at the time of writing, on track for a nine-day rally. Hopes of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran have prompted investors to move away from the safe-haven Dollar, propelling the pair to pre-war levels.

US President Donald Trump confirmed ongoing indirect negotiations with Tehran and affirmed in an interview that peace talks might resume in the coming days. He also affirmed that Israel and Lebanon will start “direct talks” soon, which would contribute to laying the ground for a steady peace agreement with Iran.

Apart from that, the US president has reignited his feud with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence and adding pressure on the USD. The Republican threatened to oust him from his separate seat on the Board of Governors if he refused to vacate it at the end of his term as Fed Chair. Powell’s term as the central bank’s chief ends on May 15, but his term on the Board of Governors does not expire until 2028.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at 1.1825 is holding bulls

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

EUR/USD holds a constructive near-term bias, with technical indicators on the four-hour chart showing mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index hovers in bullish territory near 66 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative ground.

Bulls are struggling to break the late February lows in the 1.1825 area, which is closing the path towards the February 10 and 11 highs, near 1.1930.

On the downside, initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low, right above 1.1770, followed by the previous tops, between 1.1720 and 1.1740. Further down, a breach of the support area around 1.1650 (April 8, 12 lows) would put the current bullish trend into question.

UK GDP climbs by 0.5% MoM in February vs. 0.1% expected

April 16, 2026

The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.5% MoM in February, following a 0% reported in January, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.

The market forecast was for a 0.1% rise in the same period.

Meanwhile, the Index of services (February) rose 0.5% 3M/3M versus January’s 0.2%.

Other data from the UK showed that monthly Industrial Production climbed by 0.5% MoM in February, while Manufacturing Production declined by 0.1% during the same period.

Market reaction to the UK data

The Pound Sterling attracts some buyers following the UK data. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.3578.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.04%-0.12%-0.11%-0.11%-0.22%0.03%-0.08%
EUR0.04%-0.09%-0.06%-0.08%-0.18%0.03%-0.04%
GBP0.12%0.09%0.04%-0.00%-0.10%0.12%0.04%
JPY0.11%0.06%-0.04%-0.03%-0.11%0.07%0.02%
CAD0.11%0.08%0.00%0.03%-0.10%0.12%0.04%
AUD0.22%0.18%0.10%0.11%0.10%0.21%0.16%
NZD-0.03%-0.03%-0.12%-0.07%-0.12%-0.21%-0.08%
CHF0.08%0.04%-0.04%-0.02%-0.04%-0.16%0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published on Thursday at 04:31 GMT as a preview of UK GDP data.

The UK Economic Data Overview

Thursday’s UK economic docket features the release of the monthly GDP print, alongside the Trade Balance and Industrial Production, all of which will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) at 06:00 GMT.

The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in February, up from a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to show a 0.3% MoM rise, up from a modest of 0.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, the total Industrial Production seems to be coming in at 0.0% MoM in February as compared to the previous reading of -0.1%.

On an annualized basis, the Industrial Production is expected to have contracted by 0.9 versus 0.4% growth in the previous month, while the manufacturing output is also anticipated to have fallen by 0.3% in the reported month, versus 1.3% last month. Simultaneously, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported and is anticipated to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February vs a £14.449 billion deficit reported in the previous month.

How could the UK data affect GBP/USD?

A surprisingly stronger UK macro data could benefit the British Pound (GBP). In contrast, any disappointment is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflation and force the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.

GBP/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis:

The recent breakout through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance– comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the subsequent strength beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark, which coincided with the 50% retracement level, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators also back the positive bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above zero with an expanding positive histogram. This hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the resistance breakpoints, though bulls might still await a move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level.

EUR/JPY – Weakens to near 187.50, while staying bullish above 100-day EMA

April 16, 2026
  • EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.

USD/JPY – Bounces off one-week low, defends trading range support near 158.25

April 16, 2026
  • USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session as renewed intervention fears boost the JPY.
  • Iran diplomacy hopes and fading hawkish Fed bets undermine the USD, further weighing on the pair.
  • Bears await a sustained break below the trading range support before positioning for further losses.

The USD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s modest rise and drops to over a one-week low, around the 158.25 region during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 158.70 area, down over 0.15% for the day.

Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, saying that she discussed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange, revived intervention fears, and boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since late February. These turned out to be key factors exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

However, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on any further JPY appreciation and assist the currency pair to bounce off the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. The said area also represents the lower end of a short-term trading range, and a break below will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears, which should pave the way for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped into negative territory and continues to edge lower. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-bearish ground, hinting that the momentum is softening and buyers are losing some control. This further makes it prudent to wait for a decisive breakdown of structure before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair.

A clear break and acceptance below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, where buyers have room to defend the recent consolidation floor, would expose bigger corrective risk. However, as long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the underlying bias stays modestly bullish, and any recovery attempts from current levels would likely be viewed as a continuation of the prevailing uptrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%-0.11%-0.17%-0.16%-0.26%-0.01%-0.14%
EUR0.09%-0.03%-0.07%-0.07%-0.17%0.05%-0.05%
GBP0.11%0.03%-0.04%-0.06%-0.15%0.08%-0.03%
JPY0.17%0.07%0.04%-0.00%-0.09%0.10%0.03%
CAD0.16%0.07%0.06%0.00%-0.09%0.13%-0.00%
AUD0.26%0.17%0.15%0.09%0.09%0.22%0.14%
NZD0.00%-0.05%-0.08%-0.10%-0.13%-0.22%-0.10%
CHF0.14%0.05%0.03%-0.03%0.00%-0.14%0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Talk – EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD (April 15, 2026)

April 15, 2026

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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AUD/USD Price Looks likely to reclaim multi-year high of 0.7190

April 15, 2026
  • AUD/USD jumps to near 0.7137 as the Australian Dollar outperforms its peers.
  • The US-Iran optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
  • US President Trump expresses confidence regarding a permanent ceasefire with Iran.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.23% higher to near 0.7137 against the US Dollar (USD), during the early European session on Wednesday. The antipodean trades firmly as the market sentiment is risk-on due to optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.04%0.00%0.08%0.03%-0.27%-0.01%0.03%
EUR-0.04%-0.03%0.07%-0.01%-0.21%-0.04%-0.01%
GBP-0.01%0.03%0.09%0.05%-0.18%-0.03%0.02%
JPY-0.08%-0.07%-0.09%-0.07%-0.29%-0.15%-0.09%
CAD-0.03%0.00%-0.05%0.07%-0.21%-0.05%-0.02%
AUD0.27%0.21%0.18%0.29%0.21%0.17%0.22%
NZD0.01%0.04%0.03%0.15%0.05%-0.17%0.05%
CHF-0.03%0.00%-0.02%0.09%0.02%-0.22%-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

As of writing, S&P 500 futures hold onto Tuesday’s gains around 6,970, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges up to near 98.10, but is close to its almost seven-week low of 98.00.

US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that Washington and Iran could reach a permanent ceasefire in the next two days. Trump said in an interview with ABC News that he doesn’t think extending the two-week ceasefire, adding, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do.” 

On the domestic front, the warning of stagflation from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor, in a fire chat event on Tuesday, has raised concerns over the Australian economic outlook. Hauser said that the coming months will be “challenging” for Australia in the wake of an energy crisis due to Middle East conflicts and high inflationary pressures.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around at 0.7140 at the press time. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7023, suggesting that recent dips have been bought and that the short-term trend is underpinned by rising demand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.3 leans into bullish territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is still developing rather than exhausted.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7023, where a break would likely weaken the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction toward prior congestion levels around 0.6935. As long as spot continues to trade above this moving average and RSI holds above the midline, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective pauses within the broader upward bias, and it could attempt to reclaim the multi-year high near 0.7200

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-SMA support on H4; bulls seem hesitant near 159.00

April 15, 2026
  • USD/JPY edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.
  • Hormuz risks undermine the JPY and lend support to spot prices amid a modest USD recovery.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The USD/JPY pair once again shows some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and struggle to capitalize on the strength beyond the 159.00 mark.

Despite the optimism over Iran diplomacy, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from its lowest level since early March, turns out to be another factor lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the optimism over continued US-Iran peace talks and diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) caps the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair retains a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 158.30-158.25 horizontal support. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative and flat below the zero line, suggesting waning bearish pressure rather than a strong directional impulse for now. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at only modest downside momentum. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart near 158.76 might continue to protect the immediate downside. A sustained break would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper correction. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, dips are likely to attract buyers, though the lack of bullish conviction implies that the near-term trajectory will have to be defined on the basis of forthcoming price action rather than the existing mixed technical setup.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.07%0.01%0.13%0.06%-0.15%0.03%0.07%
EUR-0.07%-0.06%0.07%-0.02%-0.15%-0.04%-0.00%
GBP-0.01%0.06%0.11%0.09%-0.10%-0.01%0.05%
JPY-0.13%-0.07%-0.11%-0.06%-0.21%-0.12%-0.07%
CAD-0.06%0.02%-0.09%0.06%-0.13%-0.04%-0.01%
AUD0.15%0.15%0.10%0.21%0.13%0.10%0.14%
NZD-0.03%0.04%0.00%0.12%0.04%-0.10%0.04%
CHF-0.07%0.00%-0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.14%-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

April 14, 2026

Facts:

  • EUR/USD is trading at 1.18 12:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, April 14, one hour ahead of the U.S March PPI release
  • The pair has managed to break above both the 200- and 100-session exponential moving averages (EMA200 and EMA100)
  • The daily RSI is above 65, while MACD remains supportive, and the pair is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend that began on January 27

Recommendation:

  • Position: Short EUR/USD at market price
  • Take Profit: 1.16646
  • Stop Loss: 1.18881

View:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has re-entered an upward trend, but the rebound—driven by growing optimism around a potential resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict—has been unusually sharp. At the same time, conditions in global energy markets—on which Europe is more dependent than the U.S remain challenging. IEA President Fatih Birol indicated that normalization of supply from the Middle East could take up to two years due to the scale of infrastructure damage. As a result, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-January downtrend, further reinforced by prior price reactions (February consolidation), may act as a significant resistance level for EUR/USD. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, with Iran maintaining that the U.S. will not control this key trade route. In an escalation scenario, sentiment toward EUR/USD may gradually weaken, and even if the conflict ultimately resolves favorably for Europe, the pair could experience elevated volatility along the way. Also, multiple US macro data signals that price pressure is starting to rise across the economy, which may lead to still quite ‘hawkish’ Fed stance ahead of the summer. Technically, the daily RSI has risen to 65, while the hourly RSI stands at 79.1—both suggesting overbought conditions. Given this setup, a short position is favored, targeting 1.16646 with a protective stop at 1.18881. M

Source: xStation5