The Canadian Dollar may weaken as falling oil prices pressure Canada’s crude-export-driven economy.
Oil prices fall as easing Middle East tensions reduce concerns over potential supply disruptions.
The US proposed to Iran a memorandum of understanding to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/CAD remains flat after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 1.3630 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may struggle amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around $92.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices depreciate on easing supply concerns amid prospects for a Middle East peace deal.
The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the war is “still being considered” after reports that the two countries could be close to an agreement. The US has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Detailed talks on Iran’s nuclear program would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has been agreed upon yet.
CNBC reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the US military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”
The US Dollar could face challenges as easing concerns over price pressures could convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rate rather than keep policy restrictive for longer.
NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5960 in Thursday’s Asian session.
Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal on Thursday.
RBNZ’s Breman said growth is expected to be slightly slower but is still expected this year.
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5960 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following reports that the United States (US) and Iran are close to a deal to end the war. Traders await the release of the US jobs report for April, which is due later on Friday.
CNN reported that Iran is expected to hand over its reply on Thursday to mediators about the US proposal to end the war. Earlier Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said the US has had “very good talks” with Iran over the past 24 hours. A potential agreement with Iran to end the ongoing conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could lift the riskier assets, such as the Kiwi against the USD, in the near term.
The US jobs data for April will take center stage later on Friday. Economists expect a gain of 60,000 jobs for April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair.
On the other hand, New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate fell unexpectedly to 5.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 from 5.4% in the previous reading. This report has kept market expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said early Thursday that she anticipates slightly elevated near-term inflation. She further stated that growth would be slightly slower but still expected this year.
The offshore yuan traded around 6.81 per dollar on Wednesday, approaching its strongest level since March 2023, as demand for safe-haven assets such as the greenback weakened amid diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump pointed to what he described as “great progress” toward a “complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran,” while stating that the US would temporarily pause efforts to assist stranded vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, Trump indicated he would discuss the Iran conflict with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming summit on May 14–15, while seeking to temper tensions surrounding the issue. On the domestic front, a private survey showed that the composite PMI rose to 53.1 in April from 51.5 in March, as both manufacturing output (52.2 vs. 50.8) and services activity (52.6 vs. 52.1) expanded at a faster pace.
USD/JPY softens to near 157.65 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
Trump said he is pausing the operation that helps ships leave the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders remain cautious after suspected intervention.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 157.65 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after US President Donald Trump announces a pause on ‘Project Freedom’ in the Strait of Hormuz. The US April ADP Employment Change report will be released later on Wednesday.
Trump said on Tuesday that Iran and the US have mutually agreed that while the US blockade “will remain in full force and effect,” Project Freedom will be paused. Trump further stated that this was to see if an agreement between the two countries can be finalized and signed. US President noted the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries and follows what he called “tremendous military success” during a US campaign against Iran.
Markets remain on high alert following suspected interventions by Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action against speculative foreign-exchange movements. “It’s probably going to take another round of significant intervention to push the dollar more significantly lower,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
The US employment data for April will be in the spotlight on Friday. This report could influence interest rate expectations and the pair’s next move. Economists expect the US economy to have added 60,000 jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.3 during the same period. Any signs of improvement in the US labor market could lift the Greenback against the JPY in the near term.
AUD/USD attracts strong follow-through buyers amid a combination of supporting factors.
US-Iran peace deal hopes and receding hawkish Fed expectations weigh heavily on the USD.
The RBA’s hawkish outlook benefits the Aussie and contributes to the positive momentum.
The AUD/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s bounce from the 0.7135 region, or the weekly low, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh high since June 2022, closer to mid-0.7200s, during the Asian session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The incoming headlines fuel optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and boost investors’ confidence, undermining the safe-haven buck and benefiting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Furthermore, sliding Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This exerts additional pressure on the USD, which, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook, contributes to the bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bullish near-term bias following the recent resilience below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said support is pegged at 0.7145, which now underpins the broader upturn from recent lows. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests strong but maturing upside momentum, while the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that buyers still retain control.
This, in turn, suggests that any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 100-period EMA on H4, at 0.7145, as the broader structure remains constructive above this zone. A sustained break beneath this moving average would weaken the current bullish tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase on the four-hour timeframe.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.20%
-0.18%
-0.06%
-0.14%
-0.69%
-0.75%
-0.20%
EUR
0.20%
0.02%
0.15%
0.07%
-0.48%
-0.57%
0.00%
GBP
0.18%
-0.02%
0.13%
0.06%
-0.50%
-0.57%
0.00%
JPY
0.06%
-0.15%
-0.13%
-0.09%
-0.64%
-0.72%
-0.12%
CAD
0.14%
-0.07%
-0.06%
0.09%
-0.55%
-0.62%
-0.04%
AUD
0.69%
0.48%
0.50%
0.64%
0.55%
-0.07%
0.50%
NZD
0.75%
0.57%
0.57%
0.72%
0.62%
0.07%
0.57%
CHF
0.20%
-0.00%
-0.00%
0.12%
0.04%
-0.50%
-0.57%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Facts: EURGBP bounced off the 1:1 structure at 0.8647 The pair is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average foram H1 interval Recommendation: Trade: Short position on EURGBP at market price Target: 0.8620, 0.8611 Stop Loss: 0.8655
Opinion: EURGBP has been trading in a downward trend recently. Taking a look at the H1 internal, we can see that the pair bounced off the key resistance, signaling a potential bearish trend resumption. The resistance at 0.8647 is marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure. In addition the price sits below the 100- period moving average. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the 0.8647 resistance, one should expect the price to continue to fall. Taking this into account, we recommend going short EURGBP at market price with two targets: 0.8620 and 0.8611. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 0.8655. Source: xStation5
What is the technical outlook for AUD/CAD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD?
This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour timeframe (D1/H4). The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. AUDCAD After several tests, the AUDCAD exchange rate has broken through the key support level at 0.9755, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a deeper downward correction. A potential target for the downside is the 0.9610 level, where the lower boundary of the large 1:1 pattern is located. Currently, the 0.9755 level is acting as resistance, and only a sustained return of the price above this zone could restore the bullish scenario.
AUDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation GBPUSD Since the beginning of April, GBPUSD has been trading within a local uptrend, supported by the 1:1 bullish pattern highlighted in green. The key support level remains at 1.3488. A potential bounce at this point could lead to the generation of another upward impulse. Conversely, a break below this level would open the way for a decline towards 1.3360, where the polarity of the previously broken downward pattern lies.
GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation AUDUSD The AUDUSD pair remains in an uptrend. Recently, the pair reached a new local high, followed by a rapid correction. Should this correction deepen, the key support level is 0.7121, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern. As long as this level holds, the base case scenario remains a continuation of the upward trend.
USD/INR appreciates as the US Dollar gains on increased risk aversion amid Middle East concerns.
Modi’s BJP won a third term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
India’s forex reserves fell from $728.5 billion, while equity outflows hit $19 billion in March and April.
USD/INR extends gains for the third successive day, trading around the fresh record high of 95.40, during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders will likely observe India’s HSBC Composite and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data to be released on Wednesday.
The USD/INR pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven demand following Iran’s attack on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). CNBC reported Monday that the UAE was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, while the US said it destroyed Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets US ships protecting commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faced challenges as an overnight surge in crude oil prices dampened investor sentiment. Oil prices, however, have since declined as concerns over immediate supply disruptions eased, with the United States (US) Navy taking steps to reopen the crucial Strait after Iran attempted to close it. Maersk, a Danish shipping and logistics company, later confirmed that its Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier, exited the strait under US military escort.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched a third straight term in Assam and captured opposition stronghold West Bengal in a key election.
On Monday, HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in India came in at 54.7 for April, revised down from the preliminary 55.9 but higher than 53.9 in the prior month. Both output and new orders continued to expand, though growth remained subdued relative to levels seen over the past three and a half years.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) turned net buyers of Indian equities on Monday after nine consecutive days of selling, with inflows totaling 28.36 billion rupees ($298 million). Domestic institutional investors (DII) bought local shares worth 47.64 billion rupees, marking their seventh straight session of purchases, per Reuters.
Stock-specific moves linked to earnings are also expected to remain in focus. Nifty 50 constituents Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra and Mahindra, and Hero MotoCorp are scheduled to announce their quarterly results later in the day.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have declined from a peak of $728.5 billion, while equity outflows reached $19 billion across March and April. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated that it remains comfortable with reserve levels sufficient to cover 11 months of imports, though recent policy discussions highlight renewed urgency to strengthen buffers amid ongoing capital outflows.
USD/INR trades around 95.40 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a potential for a bullish emergence as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.7 points to firm positive momentum edging toward overbought territory, suggesting upside pressure persists while leaving the pair vulnerable to bouts of consolidation if buyers lose traction.
The USD/INR pair is testing the upper boundary of the rectangle, followed by the all-time high of 95.40, which was recorded on May 4. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.71. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.20, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
(The story was corrected on May 5 at 6:10 GMT to say in the first paragraph to say that the HSBC PMI data will be released on Wednesday, not Tuesday.)
USD/INR: Daily Chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
INR
USD
0.04%
0.06%
0.00%
-0.02%
0.16%
0.10%
0.14%
EUR
-0.04%
0.00%
-0.02%
-0.03%
0.12%
0.06%
0.25%
GBP
-0.06%
-0.00%
-0.04%
-0.08%
0.10%
0.07%
0.09%
JPY
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
-0.01%
0.15%
0.11%
0.30%
CAD
0.02%
0.03%
0.08%
0.00%
0.16%
0.11%
0.32%
AUD
-0.16%
-0.12%
-0.10%
-0.15%
-0.16%
-0.04%
0.15%
NZD
-0.10%
-0.06%
-0.07%
-0.11%
-0.11%
0.04%
-0.01%
INR
-0.14%
-0.25%
-0.09%
-0.30%
-0.32%
-0.15%
0.01%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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