Portfolios - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD dips towards 1.1650 with Eurozone inflation, ECB rates on tap

EUR/USD drifts to three-week lows near 1.1650 as the Fed turns hawkish.
The Federal Reserve left rates on hold, with some policymakers opposing the “easing bias”.
Eurozone inflation and the ECB’s monetary policy decision will guide the pair on Thursday.

The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.1663 at the time of writing, down from weekly highs at 1.1755. A hawkish shift in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance and the deadlock in the Middle East conflict are buoying the safe-haven USD, ahead of the Eurozone inflation data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, both due later today.

On Wednesday, the Fed left rates on hold at the 3.50%-3.75% band, as expected, yet with the most divided committee since 1992, as three policymakers argued that the “easing bias” phrase is no longer appropriate given the spike in energy prices.

Higher Treasury yields give a fresh push to the USD

The market has priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and now prices in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in June next year. This has given US Treasury yields a fresh boost, providing additional support for the US Dollar.

Beyond that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who ends his term on May 15, affirmed that he will remain at the bank as Governor, due to the legal actions taken against him by US President Donald Trump. Powell will replace Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Trump in 2025 and voted for a rate cut on Wednesday, and is likely to counter pressure from the administration on the next Chair, Kevin Warsh, to ease monetary policy.

In Europe, traders will be attentive to the Eurozone preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, which is expected to show a sharp acceleration, boosted by higher Oil prices.

The main focus on Thursday, however, will be on the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The bank will most likely leave interest rates on hold, awaiting more clarity on the Middle East conflict, while leaving the door open for a rate hike in June or July.

Technical Analysis: Bears are testing a key support zone

EUR/USD is showing mounting bearish pressure after breaking the neckline of a bearish “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) pattern at 1.1675, and is now testing a cluster of supports above 1.1645, which held bears several times in mid-April.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are going deeper into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 34 hints at lingering downside pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing widening red bars.

A clear break of the April 8 intraday low, in the area of 1.1645, would confirm the H&S formation. The pair might find some support at the 1.1630 area, where the 50% Fibonacci support of the March-April rally meets late March and early April highs. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1583. The H&S’s measured target is coincident with the April 6 low near 1.1500.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the previous support zone near 1.1675, followed by Wednesday’s high at 1.1720 and the mentioned weekly high at 1.1755.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD – Bullish USD to cap recovery from 0.7100/two-week low

AUD/USD stages a modest recovery from a two-week low, around 0.7100, touched on Wednesday.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran tensions continue to underpin the USD, warranting caution for bulls.
The technical setup suggests that any further move up is likely to be sold into and remain capped.

The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day’s heavy losses to the 0.7100 mark, or a two-week low.

Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance counter China’s mixed official PMIs and turn out to be a key factor offering some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, sticks to its positive tone near the highest level since April 13 on the back of persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from stalled US-Iran peace talks. Furthermore, diminishing odds for any further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the USD and should cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices have repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the 0.7200 mark and have oscillated in a range over the past two weeks or so. Meanwhile, the overnight slide confirms a breakdown below the 0.7130-0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low touched in March. This, in turn, favors the AUD/USD bears, suggesting that the move higher might now be seen as a selling opportunity.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 40 and hints at modest bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory but flattening, suggesting downside pressure is softening rather than accelerating.

In the meantime, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7131, with a stronger barrier at the recent cycle high near 0.7223. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 0.7100 mark ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 0.7074. This is followed by the 50.0% level at 0.7027 and deeper supports at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 0.6981 and 0.6915, respectively, where buyers would likely attempt to slow any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.04%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.11%		-0.07%	-0.13%	-0.16%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-0.10%
GBP	-0.01%	0.07%		-0.02%	-0.08%	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.02%
JPY	0.00%	0.13%	0.02%		-0.06%	-0.11%	-0.13%	-0.04%
CAD	0.04%	0.16%	0.08%	0.06%		-0.08%	-0.06%	0.04%
AUD	0.11%	0.21%	0.12%	0.11%	0.08%		0.04%	0.12%
NZD	0.08%	0.17%	0.09%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.04%		0.08%
CHF	0.00%	0.10%	0.02%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.12%	-0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote)

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD – Hovers around 50-day EMA near 1.1700

EUR/USD may hover near its eight-month low around 1.1411.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 48 signals weakening bullish momentum and a consolidative trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near 1.1678.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair has slipped below the ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds just under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-day EMA, which together suggest a capped near-term tone despite the recent recovery from lower levels.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias, reinforcing the view that upside attempts may struggle while price remains below these key dynamic barriers.

On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

The immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.1700. A return to the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/USD pair to test the two-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1940. A sustained break above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.09%	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.05%	-0.14%	-0.07%	-0.00%
EUR	-0.09%		-0.05%	-0.13%	-0.14%	-0.21%	-0.14%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.01%	0.05%		-0.04%	-0.07%	-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.02%
JPY	0.03%	0.13%	0.04%		-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.00%
CAD	0.05%	0.14%	0.07%	0.03%		-0.10%	-0.04%	0.05%
AUD	0.14%	0.21%	0.15%	0.10%	0.10%		0.07%	0.15%
NZD	0.07%	0.14%	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%	-0.07%		0.07%
CHF	0.00%	0.07%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.05%	-0.15%	-0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD drops as strong US data and Iran impasse lift Dollar bids

Strong Durable Goods Orders reinforced confidence in the US economy.
Higher yields and firm oil prices supported the Greenback’s rebound.
Traders now await Fed and ECB decisions for fresh direction.

EUR/USD drops by some 0.17% during the North American session as a possible resolution of the US-Iran conflict seems far from ending, while Durable Goods Orders data in the US suggest that the economy remains solid. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1684 after reaching a daily high of 1.1720.

Euro weakens as yields jump before Fed and ECB rate decisions now

High energy prices are underpinning the US Dollar, which, of late, has been correlated with WTI, posting back-to-back bullish days and rising 0.27% in the day, according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.66.

US Treasury yields are soaring, with the 10-year Treasury note up 5 basis points to 4.398%, a sign that investors are less confident the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs in the near term.

The US President Donald Trump urged Iran to sign a deal as he prepared the US Navy for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, as negotiations have stalled.

Aside from this, US Core Durable Goods Orders in March rose sharply 3.3% from February’s 1.6% print, crushing estimates for a minimal 0.6% increase, a sign that business spending is picking up, driven by companies spending on AI to improve profit margins. Headline goods orders improved from a -1.2% YoY contraction, to 0.8% exceeding forecasts of 0.5%.

Across the pond, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany rose from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY, missing estimates of 3%. Monthly, the German HICP decreased form 1.2% to 0.5%, below forecasts for a 0.8% jump.

Fed and ECB meetings up next

Now, traders’ eyes would be on monetary policy meetings in both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve is projected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the attention would be on Powell’s decision to stay at the Fed until his term as Governor ends, or whether he would leave his place open, which would increase Trump’s allies on the committee.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is projected to keep rates unchanged, but for the rest of the year, money markets see three basis points of rate hikes towards the end of the year, as revealed by Prime Terminal’s implied forward rates curve.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1690, holding just above the triple simple moving average (SMA) clustered around 1.1649, which now acts as immediate support. The pair, however, remains capped by the broader trend structure, with former rising support now sitting above spot near recent highs around 1.1760 and converging with the dominant downward resistance line closer to 1.1800, suggesting rallies are still vulnerable while price trades beneath this confluence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 50.4 hovers around neutral, hinting at a loss of directional conviction after the recent recovery from mid-1.15s.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former rising-support line around 1.1760, ahead of the broader downward resistance trend zone near 1.1800, where sellers are likely to re-emerge unless the pair can sustain a clear break higher. On the downside, the triple SMA support at roughly 1.1650 is the first level to watch; a daily close below this floor would expose a deeper pullback toward the mid-1.15 area, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative stance within the broader corrective structure.

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	0.16%	0.38%	0.03%	-0.08%	0.43%	0.45%
EUR	-0.05%		0.13%	0.26%	0.00%	-0.11%	0.41%	0.42%
GBP	-0.16%	-0.13%		0.17%	-0.12%	-0.24%	0.28%	0.29%
JPY	-0.38%	-0.26%	-0.17%		-0.30%	-0.44%	0.16%	0.18%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.00%	0.12%	0.30%		-0.07%	0.46%	0.42%
AUD	0.08%	0.11%	0.24%	0.44%	0.07%		0.52%	0.53%
NZD	-0.43%	-0.41%	-0.28%	-0.16%	-0.46%	-0.52%		0.02%
CHF	-0.45%	-0.42%	-0.29%	-0.18%	-0.42%	-0.53%	-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD slides as US Dollar gains on geopolitical tensions ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD weakens as softer Australian CPI and a firm US Dollar pressure the Aussie.
US-Iran tensions remain elevated as peace talks stall and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed by softer-than-expected Australian inflation data, while fading hopes that the US-Iran war will end anytime soon support the Greenback.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7139, down nearly 0.60% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.78, up about 0.15%.

Market sentiment weakens after Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump and oil companies discussed plans to maintain the Iran blockade for months if needed, citing a White House official. Trump also warned that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon,” he wrote on Truth Social. The comments follow US skepticism over Iran’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while delaying nuclear talks.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due at 18:00 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range as policymakers assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target, with rising Oil prices increasing upside risks. This has dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook. Markets will therefore focus on guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

A hawkish tone could further support the US Dollar, while any signal that the Fed remains open to rate cuts later this year may limit the Greenback’s upside. However, downside in the US Dollar is likely to remain limited amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook continues to provide underlying support for the Aussie, the latest inflation data showed Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.6% in March from 3.7% in February, but still below expectations of 4.7%.

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

NZD/USD weakens as Fed policy caution, Iran tensions support US Dollar

NZD/USD declines as investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
Expected pause in US rates supports the US Dollar in a higher-for-longer environment.
Iran-related tensions and Hormuz Strait risks weigh on sentiment and limit Kiwi upside.

NZD/USD trades lower around 0.5840 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.76% on the day, as markets adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision later in the day.

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure as investors widely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range, marking a fourth consecutive hold. Focus now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, which could offer clues on the future policy path, particularly as inflation continues to run above the 2% target.

A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed), emphasizing persistent inflation risks, could support the US Dollar (USD) and add further downside pressure on NZD/USD in the near term. Conversely, any hints that policymakers remain open to rate cuts later this year might cap the Greenback’s strength, although it may not be enough to reverse the broader trend amid prevailing uncertainty.

On the political front, a potential leadership transition at the Fed is also drawing attention after Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the US Senate Banking Committee. He still needs full Senate approval to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on market sentiment. Comments from US President Donald Trump regarding Iran and the potential extension of the Strait of Hormuz blockade are fueling concerns over global energy supply. The resulting rise in Oil prices is reinforcing inflationary pressures and supporting expectations of a prolonged higher-rate environment.

In this context, safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, putting pressure on risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). While any signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran could temporarily improve risk appetite, persistent uncertainty is likely to limit any meaningful recovery in the Kiwi in the near term.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.15%	0.20%	0.38%	-0.00%	0.69%	0.78%	0.09%
EUR	-0.15%		0.04%	0.24%	-0.16%	0.53%	0.65%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.20%	-0.04%		0.19%	-0.21%	0.47%	0.59%	-0.11%
JPY	-0.38%	-0.24%	-0.19%		-0.40%	0.31%	0.42%	-0.25%
CAD	0.00%	0.16%	0.21%	0.40%		0.71%	0.80%	0.10%
AUD	-0.69%	-0.53%	-0.47%	-0.31%	-0.71%		0.11%	-0.63%
NZD	-0.78%	-0.65%	-0.59%	-0.42%	-0.80%	-0.11%		-0.71%
CHF	-0.09%	0.07%	0.11%	0.25%	-0.10%	0.63%	0.71%

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY nears the key 160.00 level ahead of the Fed rate decision

USD/JPY nudges higher on Wednesday and reaches the 159.75 area.
The US Dollar remains buoyant on cautious markets ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama threatened “decisive action” against speculative market moves.

The US Dollar (USD) nudges higher for the second consecutive day against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, trading at 159.75 at the time of writing, with the key 160.00 level, considered a line in the sand for Tokyo intervention, coming closer.

The US Dollar keeps a moderate bullish trend against its main peers as investors brace for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting, due later today. The bank will, all but certainly, leave its benchmark interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with no monetary policy changes foreseen by the market until well into 2027.

Wednesday’s is highly likely to be the latest meeting with Jerome Powell as chairman, as his term ends on May 15, and former Governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated as his replacement. It is still to be seen, however, whether Powell remains on the Board of Governors or, as US President Donald Trump demanded, leaves the central bank.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood pat on rates, as expected, on Tuesday, but Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed their commitment to gradual monetary tightening. The positive impact on the Yen, however, was muted, as the comparatively low BoJ interest rates leave the Yen as the currency of choice for carry trade, consisting of borrowing low-yielding Yen to purchase higher-yielding currencies.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned Yen sellers before the BoJ decision on Tuesday, flagging a coordinated intervention with the US. Katayama said that Crude Oil volatility is spilling over the FX markets and affecting the broader economy, and assured that Japanese Authorities are ready to take decisive action against speculative activity.

Currency Hedger April 29, 2026 No Comments

GBP/USD Price Trades sideways around 1.3500 ahead of Fed-BoE rate decisions

GBP/USD wobbles around 1.3500 as the US Dollar consolidates in the countdown to Fed-BoE policy announcements.
The Fed is expected to warn of upside inflation risks after leaving interest rates unchanged.
Investors expect the BoE to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%.

The GBP/USD pair is broadly sideways around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Cable consolidates as investors await monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).

The Fed is anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in its monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the monetary policy statement, the Fed is expected to warn about de-anchored inflation projections and growing economic risks amid higher oil prices due to prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.

Ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.70.

On Thursday, the BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%, with an 8-1 majority. In an event at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this month, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the war has resulted in a “big negative shock” to the economy; however, there is no rush for any monetary policy adjustment.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades flat at around 1.3500, holding a modest bullish bias as it sits above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3470 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3432.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.4 leans slightly positive, suggesting buyers retain the upper hand while upside traction remains gradual.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3515, with further barriers at the 61.8% level at 1.3599, followed by 1.3718 and 1.3870. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3470, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.3432; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at 1.3328 and the structural floor near 1.3161.